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Brewers @ Pirates [ -102 / 7.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

September 26, 2024, 12:35 pm
Brewers | 93-70 (57.1%), Aaron Civale (R) | 8-9 (47.06%)
Pirates | 76-87 (46.6%), Mitch Keller (R) | 11-12 (47.83%)

Last updated: September 28, 2024 10:31 am EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Brewers
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Matchup:
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Pirates
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Brewers Situational Notes

Pirates Situational Notes

Brewers Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/27MILFrankie Montas (R)MIL -102
NYM -116		7.5NYMSean Manaea (L)
9/26PITMitch Keller (R)MIL -116
PIT +102		7.5MILAaron Civale (R)
9/25PIT [ 2 ]Luis Ortiz (R)MIL -146
PIT +134		7.5MIL [ 1 ]Freddy Peralta (R)
9/24PIT [ 2 ]Bailey Falter (L)MIL -142
PIT +128		8MIL [ 7 ]Tobias Myers (R)
9/22MIL [ 10 ]Frankie Montas (R)MIL -142
ARI +120		8ARI [ 9 ]Jordan Montgomery (L)
9/21MIL [ 0 ]Aaron Civale (R)MIL -116
ARI -102		8ARI [ 5 ]Merrill Kelly (R)
9/20MIL [ 4 ]Colin Rea (R)MIL +114
ARI -134		8.5ARI [ 7 ]Zac Gallen (R)
9/19MIL [ 1 ]Tobias Myers (R)MIL +106
ARI -124		8.5ARI [ 5 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)
9/18MIL [ 2 ]Freddy Peralta (R)MIL -112
PHI -104		7.5PHI [ 1 ]Aaron Nola (R)
9/17MIL [ 1 ]Frankie Montas (R)MIL +116
PHI -136		7.5PHI [ 5 ]Zack Wheeler (R)

Pirates Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/27NYYCarlos Rodon (L)PIT +142
NYY -162		7.5PITJared Jones (R)
9/26PITMitch Keller (R)PIT -102
MIL -120		7.5MILAaron Civale (R)
9/25PIT [ 2 ]Luis Ortiz (R)PIT +124
MIL -158		7.5MIL [ 1 ]Freddy Peralta (R)
9/24PIT [ 2 ]Bailey Falter (L)PIT +120
MIL -152		8MIL [ 7 ]Tobias Myers (R)
9/22CIN [ 0 ]Hunter Greene (R)PIT -126
CIN -110		8PIT [ 2 ]Paul Skenes (R)
9/21CIN [ 7 ]Rhett Lowder (R)PIT -102
CIN -120		8.5PIT [ 1 ]Jared Jones (R)
9/20CIN [ 8 ]Nick Martinez (R)PIT +102
CIN -126		9PIT [ 3 ]Mitch Keller (R)
9/19STL [ 2 ]Erick Fedde (R)PIT +124
STL -146		8.5PIT [ 3 ]Luis Ortiz (R)
9/18STL [ 10 ]Sonny Gray (R)PIT +176
STL -210		8PIT [ 5 ]Jake Woodford (R)
9/17STL [ 3 ]Lance Lynn (R)PIT +130
STL -154		7.5PIT [ 1 ]Bailey Falter (L)

Aaron Civale Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/21MIL [ 0 ]ARI [ 5 ]-11684.33233233Merrill Kelly (R)
9/16MIL [ 6 ]PHI [ 2 ]-11085617111Ranger Suarez (L)
9/10SFG [ 2 ]MIL [ 3 ]-1167.55.33213122Landen Roupp (R)
9/3MIL [ 4 ]STL [ 7 ]-15485706133Steven Matz (L)
8/29MIL [ 6 ]SFG [ 0 ]-1328.57722000Hayden Birdsong (R)
5.334.81.44.211.81.8

Mitch Keller Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/20CIN [ 8 ]PIT [ 3 ]10293.33157288Nick Martinez (R)
9/14PIT [ 1 ]KCR [ 5 ]-11686614134Michael Wacha (R)
9/7PIT [ 6 ]WSN [ 8 ]-1447.56807022Mitchell Parker (0)
9/1CLE [ 6 ]PIT [ 1 ]1267.55.337011334Alex Cobb (R)
8/26PIT [ 8 ]CHC [ 18 ]-1128.54427033Jameson Taillon (R)
4.935.21.67.21.23.84.2


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

BrewersPirates
162TG162
4.8R/G4.1
177HR160
0.248AVG0.234
217SB106
42CS19
BrewersPirates
0.155ISO0.137
0.305BABIP0.291
0.326OBP0.301
0.403SLG0.371
0.319wOBA0.295
104wRC+86
BrewersPirates
9.7BB%8
23.6K%24.7
0.41BB/K0.32
7.2Barrel%8.2
38.3HardHit%39.9
27.2WAR6.9

Pitching Matchup

Aaron CivaleMitch Keller
31G31
31GS31
161IP178
5.2IP/G5.7
8W11
9L12
76.4LOB%73.1
Aaron CivaleMitch Keller
8.33K/98.39
2.91BB/92.53
14.1K/BB%15
35.6GB%39.4
42.8FB%36.8
1.62HR/91.16
14.2HR/FB%11.6
Aaron CivaleMitch Keller
0.285BABIP0.306
4.36ERA4.25
3.99xERA4.31
4.74FIP4.08
4.31xFIP4.08
1.3WHIP1.3
4.26SIERA4.08
0.9WAR2.2

Bullpen Matchup

BrewersPirates
3.2BPU/G3.17
4IP/G3.6
51W33
28L33
53SV43
19BS27
78.1LOB%67.6
BrewersPirates
8.81K/99.06
3.06BB/93.97
15.5K/BB%12.9
42.8GB%41.4
37.9FB%38.7
0.99HR/90.85
10.7HR/FB%8.6
BrewersPirates
0.266BABIP0.305
3.11ERA4.49
3.78FIP3.95
3.9xFIP4.38
1.16WHIP1.38
3.65SIERA3.98
5.9WAR3.4

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Aaron Civale F514-11-6 (56%)7-5-2 (58.3%)4-2-0 (66.7%)1-0-1 (100%)2-4-2 (33.3%)
Aaron Civale13-18 (41.9%)6-8 (42.9%)4-2 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)2-6 (25%)
Mitch Keller F513-14-4 (48.1%)4-3-3 (57.1%)1-2-1 (33.3%)3-2-0 (60%)5-7-0 (41.7%)
Mitch Keller17-14 (54.8%)6-4 (60%)1-3 (25%)2-3 (40%)8-4 (66.7%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Aaron Civale F516-13-2 (55.2%)7-6-1 (53.8%)4-2-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)4-4-0 (50%)
Aaron Civale17-12-2 (58.6%)8-5-1 (61.5%)4-2-0 (66.7%)0-1-1 (0%)4-4-0 (50%)
Mitch Keller F513-14-2 (48.1%)3-5-1 (37.5%)4-0-0 (100%)1-4-0 (20%)5-5-1 (50%)
Mitch Keller16-15-0 (51.6%)5-5-0 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)1-4-0 (20%)9-3-0 (75%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brewers vs. RHP F553-42-18 (55.8%)20-16-3 (55.6%)8-11-3 (42.1%)4-4-6 (50%)20-10-6 (66.7%)
Brewers vs. RHP68-45 (60.2%)26-13 (66.7%)13-9 (59.1%)6-8 (42.9%)22-14 (61.1%)
Pirates vs. RHP F541-56-18 (42.3%)16-9-6 (64%)5-5-4 (50%)8-17-2 (32%)11-24-6 (31.4%)
Pirates vs. RHP52-63 (45.2%)16-15 (51.6%)9-5 (64.3%)11-16 (40.7%)15-26 (36.6%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Brewers vs. RHP F559-52-2 (53.2%)17-21-1 (44.7%)9-12-1 (42.9%)10-4-0 (71.4%)22-14-0 (61.1%)
Brewers vs. RHP60-48-5 (55.6%)18-19-2 (48.6%)8-13-1 (38.1%)9-3-2 (75%)24-12-0 (66.7%)
Pirates vs. RHP F553-54-7 (49.5%)18-11-1 (62.1%)5-9-0 (35.7%)11-15-1 (42.3%)18-18-5 (50%)
Pirates vs. RHP53-60-2 (46.9%)17-13-1 (56.7%)3-11-0 (21.4%)12-14-1 (46.2%)20-21-0 (48.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Aaron Civale15-15 (50%)5-9 (35.7%)3-3 (50%)2-0 (100%)5-3 (62.5%)
Brewers78-79 (49.7%)24-31 (43.6%)12-23 (34.3%)9-12 (42.9%)33-13 (71.7%)
Mitch Keller15-16 (48.4%)4-6 (40%)1-3 (25%)2-3 (40%)8-4 (66.7%)
Pirates84-75 (52.8%)15-28 (34.9%)9-10 (47.4%)23-13 (63.9%)37-24 (60.7%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Aaron Civale14-17 (45.2%)4-10 (28.6%)4-2 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)5-3 (62.5%)
Brewers77-84 (47.8%)27-28 (49.1%)15-20 (42.9%)11-10 (52.4%)21-25 (45.7%)
Mitch Keller14-17 (45.2%)3-7 (30%)2-2 (50%)2-3 (40%)7-5 (58.3%)
Pirates67-96 (41.1%)22-21 (51.2%)7-12 (36.8%)14-22 (38.9%)21-40 (34.4%)