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Reds @ Cubs [ -126 / 6.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

September 27, 2024, 1:20 pm
Reds | 77-85 (47.5%), Nick Martinez (R) | 10-7 (58.82%)
Cubs | 83-79 (51.2%), Jameson Taillon (R) | 12-8 (60%)

Last updated: September 29, 2024 1:00 am EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Reds
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Cubs
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Reds Situational Notes

Cubs Situational Notes
Baller Systems
• Fade team on the road, traveling from Eastern time zone to any other time zone.

Reds Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/28CHCKyle Hendricks (R)CIN +110
CHC -130		7CINRhett Lowder (R)
9/27CHCJameson Taillon (R)CIN +108
CHC -126		6.5CINNick Martinez (R)
9/25CLE [ 5 ]Andrew Walters (R)CIN +120
CLE -146		8CIN [ 2 ]Jakob Junis (R)
9/24CLE [ 6 ]Tanner Bibee (R)CIN +170
CLE -196		7.5CIN [ 1 ]Carson Spiers (R)
9/22CIN [ 0 ]Hunter Greene (R)CIN +108
PIT -106		8PIT [ 2 ]Paul Skenes (R)
9/21CIN [ 7 ]Rhett Lowder (R)CIN -116
PIT +102		8.5PIT [ 1 ]Jared Jones (R)
9/20CIN [ 8 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN -120
PIT +108		9PIT [ 3 ]Mitch Keller (R)
9/19CIN [ 3 ]Julian Aguiar (R)CIN +188
ATL -225		9ATL [ 15 ]Chris Sale (L)
9/18CIN [ 1 ]Jakob Junis (R)CIN +122
ATL -142		8.5ATL [ 7 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
9/17CIN [ 6 ]Brandon Williamson (L)CIN -100
ATL -142		9ATL [ 5 ]Grant Holmes (R)

Cubs Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/28CHCKyle Hendricks (R)CHC -130
CIN +110		7CINRhett Lowder (R)
9/27CHCJameson Taillon (R)CHC -126
CIN +108		6.5CINNick Martinez (R)
9/25PHI [ 9 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)CHC +146
PHI -215		8CHC [ 6 ]Javier Assad (R)
9/24PHI [ 4 ]Tanner Banks (L)CHC -132
PHI -110		8CHC [ 10 ]Justin Steele (L)
9/23PHI [ 6 ]Aaron Nola (R)CHC +158
PHI -198		8CHC [ 2 ]Nate Pearson (R)
9/22CHC [ 5 ]Shota Imanaga (L)CHC -215
WSN +180		7.5WSN [ 0 ]Jake Irvin (R)
9/21CHC [ 1 ]Kyle Hendricks (R)CHC -136
WSN +116		8.5WSN [ 5 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)
9/20CHC [ 3 ]Jameson Taillon (R)CHC -164
WSN +138		9.5WSN [ 1 ]Trevor Williams (R)
9/19CHC [ 7 ]Javier Assad (R)CHC -174
WSN +146		8.5WSN [ 6 ]Patrick Corbin (L)
9/18CHC [ 3 ]Justin Steele (L)CHC -174
OAK +146		7.5OAK [ 5 ]Brady Basso (L)

Nick Martinez Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/20CIN [ 8 ]PIT [ 3 ]-12096902000Mitch Keller (R)
9/14MIN [ 1 ]CIN [ 11 ]1328.56603011Simeon Woods Richardson (R)
9/9ATL [ 0 ]CIN [ 1 ]1328.57512000Charlie Morton (R)
9/4CIN [ 12 ]HOU [ 5 ]11495.67736014Spencer Arrighetti (R)
8/30CIN [ 4 ]MIL [ 5 ]-10295.33317244Colin Rea (L)
66140.41.21.8

Jameson Taillon Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/20CHC [ 3 ]WSN [ 1 ]-1649.56422000Trevor Williams (R)
9/14COL [ 6 ]CHC [ 5 ]-14610.56615122Kyle Freeland (L)
9/8CHC [ 2 ]NYY [ 1 ]1328.56616011Gerrit Cole (R)
9/2CHC [ 3 ]PIT [ 5 ]-1467.57313000Jared Jones (R)
8/26PIT [ 8 ]CHC [ 18 ]-1048.56.67308144Mitch Keller (R)
6.334.414.80.41.41.4


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

RedsCubs
162TG162
4.3R/G4.5
174HR170
0.231AVG0.242
207SB143
45CS30
RedsCubs
0.157ISO0.151
0.283BABIP0.291
0.305OBP0.317
0.388SLG0.393
0.303wOBA0.311
87wRC+101
RedsCubs
8.3BB%8.9
24.4K%22.3
0.34BB/K0.4
7Barrel%7.8
35.8HardHit%38.1
8.6WAR22.5

Pitching Matchup

Nick MartinezJameson Taillon
42G28
16GS28
142.1IP165.1
3.4IP/G5.9
10W12
7L8
71.5LOB%76.3
Nick MartinezJameson Taillon
7.33K/96.8
1.14BB/91.8
17.2K/BB%13.6
36.9GB%40.1
41.4FB%40.5
0.82HR/91.14
7.4HR/FB%10.2
Nick MartinezJameson Taillon
0.275BABIP0.269
3.1ERA3.27
3.15xERA3.97
3.21FIP3.92
3.89xFIP4.16
1.03WHIP1.13
3.8SIERA4.29
3.5WAR2.3

Bullpen Matchup

RedsCubs
3.3BPU/G3.06
3.7IP/G3.5
27W37
37L35
36SV38
15BS26
73.5LOB%73.5
RedsCubs
9.32K/99.25
3.15BB/93.76
16.1K/BB%14.4
37.9GB%42.4
42.4FB%38.4
1.19HR/90.99
11.2HR/FB%10.6
RedsCubs
0.298BABIP0.288
4.09ERA3.81
4.03FIP3.94
4.09xFIP4.09
1.28WHIP1.29
3.63SIERA3.8
5.1WAR2.9

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez F55-7-2 (41.7%)1-2-1 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)2-2-1 (50%)
Nick Martinez7-7 (50%)3-1 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-2 (33.3%)2-3 (40%)
Jameson Taillon F518-10-1 (64.3%)6-4-1 (60%)3-1-0 (75%)4-0-0 (100%)4-5-0 (44.4%)
Jameson Taillon15-14 (51.7%)5-6 (45.5%)2-2 (50%)4-0 (100%)4-5 (44.4%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez F58-5-1 (61.5%)3-1-0 (75%)1-0-0 (100%)2-0-1 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)
Nick Martinez8-6-0 (57.1%)3-1-0 (75%)1-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-3-0 (40%)
Jameson Taillon F517-11-1 (60.7%)4-6-1 (40%)3-1-0 (75%)3-1-0 (75%)6-3-0 (66.7%)
Jameson Taillon15-14-0 (51.7%)6-5-0 (54.5%)3-1-0 (75%)1-3-0 (25%)4-5-0 (44.4%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F550-50-18 (50%)13-20-3 (39.4%)7-3-2 (70%)10-7-2 (58.8%)19-19-11 (50%)
Reds vs. RHP60-58 (50.8%)17-19 (47.2%)9-3 (75%)12-7 (63.2%)21-28 (42.9%)
Cubs vs. RHP F558-51-19 (53.2%)20-16-9 (55.6%)10-7-2 (58.8%)11-10-0 (52.4%)16-18-8 (47.1%)
Cubs vs. RHP69-59 (53.9%)25-20 (55.6%)11-8 (57.9%)12-9 (57.1%)21-21 (50%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F557-55-6 (50.9%)15-18-3 (45.5%)10-1-1 (90.9%)11-7-1 (61.1%)20-28-1 (41.7%)
Reds vs. RHP53-60-5 (46.9%)18-15-3 (54.5%)9-3-0 (75%)6-13-0 (31.6%)19-28-2 (40.4%)
Cubs vs. RHP F560-60-6 (50%)18-23-2 (43.9%)11-7-1 (61.1%)8-13-0 (38.1%)22-17-3 (56.4%)
Cubs vs. RHP55-70-3 (44%)19-26-0 (42.2%)10-8-1 (55.6%)6-15-0 (28.6%)19-21-2 (47.5%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez8-5 (61.5%)2-2 (50%)1-0 (100%)1-2 (33.3%)4-1 (80%)
Reds84-73 (53.5%)20-32 (38.5%)10-7 (58.8%)17-11 (60.7%)37-23 (61.7%)
Jameson Taillon11-17 (39.3%)2-9 (18.2%)1-3 (25%)4-0 (100%)4-5 (44.4%)
Cubs77-84 (47.8%)18-40 (31%)11-16 (40.7%)13-10 (56.5%)35-18 (66%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Nick Martinez6-8 (42.9%)1-3 (25%)1-0 (100%)2-1 (66.7%)1-4 (20%)
Reds68-91 (42.8%)18-34 (34.6%)11-6 (64.7%)13-15 (46.4%)24-36 (40%)
Jameson Taillon15-14 (51.7%)5-6 (45.5%)2-2 (50%)4-0 (100%)4-5 (44.4%)
Cubs67-95 (41.4%)21-37 (36.2%)12-15 (44.4%)11-12 (47.8%)23-30 (43.4%)