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Reds @ Cubs [ -136 / 8.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

May 31, 2024, 1:20 pm
Reds | 77-85 (47.5%), Graham Ashcraft (R) | 5-5 (50%)
Cubs | 83-79 (51.2%), Javier Assad (R) | 7-6 (53.85%)

Last updated: August 14, 2024 6:00 am EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Reds
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Cubs
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Reds Situational Notes
Rest Advantage

Cubs Situational Notes

Reds Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/1CHCJustin Steele (L)CIN +116
CHC -136		7.5CINHunter Greene (R)
5/31CHCJavier Assad (R)CIN +116
CHC -136		8.5CINGraham Ashcraft (R)
5/29CIN [ 3 ]Frankie Montas (R)CIN -124
STL +106		9.5STL [ 5 ]Andre Pallante (R)
5/28CIN [ 1 ]Andrew Abbott (L)CIN -130
STL +110		9.5STL [ 7 ]Kyle Gibson (R)
5/27CIN [ 3 ]Nick Lodolo (L)CIN -158
STL +134		9.5STL [ 1 ]Lance Lynn (R)
5/26CIN [ 4 ]Brent Suter (L)CIN +172
LAD -205		9LAD [ 1 ]Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
5/25CIN [ 3 ]Hunter Greene (R)CIN +132
LAD -156		9.5LAD [ 1 ]Walker Buehler (R)
5/24CIN [ 9 ]Graham Ashcraft (R)CIN +132
LAD -156		10.5LAD [ 6 ]James Paxton (L)
5/23CIN [ 4 ]Frankie Montas (R)CIN -104
SDP -112		9.5SDP [ 6 ]Matt Waldron (R)
5/22CIN [ 3 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN +108
SDP -126		9.5SDP [ 7 ]Michael King (R)

Cubs Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/1CHCJustin Steele (L)CHC -136
CIN +116		7.5CINHunter Greene (R)
5/31CHCJavier Assad (R)CHC -136
CIN +116		8.5CINGraham Ashcraft (R)
5/30MIL [ 6 ]Colin Rea (R)CHC +102
MIL -120		8.5CHC [ 4 ]Jameson Taillon (R)
5/29MIL [ 10 ]Bryse Wilson (R)CHC -146
MIL +124		7.5CHC [ 6 ]Shota Imanaga (L)
5/28MIL [ 3 ]Freddy Peralta (R)CHC +140
MIL -166		7.5CHC [ 6 ]Ben Brown (R)
5/27MIL [ 5 ]Robert Gasser (L)CHC -112
MIL -104		8CHC [ 1 ]Justin Steele (L)
5/26STL [ 4 ]Sonny Gray (R)CHC +120
STL -142		8.5CHC [ 3 ]Javier Assad (R)
5/25STL [ 7 ]Miles Mikolas (R)CHC -108
STL -108		8.5CHC [ 6 ]Jameson Taillon (R)
5/23CHC [ 0 ]Ben Brown (R)CHC -116
ATL -102		8.5ATL [ 3 ]AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
5/22CHC [ 2 ]Justin Steele (L)CHC +114
ATL -134		8.5ATL [ 9 ]Max Fried (L)

Graham Ashcraft Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
5/24CIN [ 9 ]LAD [ 6 ]13210.55.33318155James Paxton (L)
5/18LAD [ 4 ]CIN [ 0 ]16085533033Walker Buehler (R)
5/13ARI [ 6 ]CIN [ 5 ]1348.54337233Jordan Montgomery (L)
5/8CIN [ 3 ]ARI [ 4 ]-11095236033Jordan Montgomery (L)
5/1SDP [ 6 ]CIN [ 2 ]1247.56425002Joe Musgrove (R)
5.073.42.45.80.62.83.2

Javier Assad Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
5/26STL [ 4 ]CHC [ 3 ]1208.55835244Sonny Gray (R)
5/21CHC [ 4 ]ATL [ 3 ]10811.54.67454223Charlie Morton (R)
5/15ATL [ 1 ]CHC [ 7 ]1548.56714000Charlie Morton (R)
5/10PIT [ 2 ]CHC [ 7 ]11074.33424012Jared Jones (R)
5/5CHC [ 5 ]MIL [ 0 ]1166.56434000Freddy Peralta (R)
5.25.42.84.20.81.41.8


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

RedsCubs
162TG162
4.3R/G4.5
174HR170
0.231AVG0.242
207SB143
45CS30
RedsCubs
0.157ISO0.151
0.283BABIP0.291
0.305OBP0.317
0.388SLG0.393
0.303wOBA0.311
87wRC+101
RedsCubs
8.3BB%8.9
24.4K%22.3
0.34BB/K0.4
7Barrel%7.8
35.8HardHit%38.1
8.6WAR22.5

Pitching Matchup

Graham AshcraftJavier Assad
15G29
15GS29
77.1IP147
5.1IP/G5.1
5W7
5L6
67.5LOB%80.3
Graham AshcraftJavier Assad
6.63K/97.59
3.14BB/93.86
8.6K/BB%9.6
48.6GB%43.6
31.5FB%38.6
1.28HR/91.22
13.6HR/FB%11.8
Graham AshcraftJavier Assad
0.313BABIP0.289
5.24ERA3.73
5.1xERA4.97
4.82FIP4.64
4.56xFIP4.61
1.5WHIP1.4
4.67SIERA4.72
0.6WAR1

Bullpen Matchup

RedsCubs
3.3BPU/G3.06
3.7IP/G3.5
27W37
37L35
36SV38
15BS26
73.5LOB%73.5
RedsCubs
9.32K/99.25
3.15BB/93.76
16.1K/BB%14.4
37.9GB%42.4
42.4FB%38.4
1.19HR/90.99
11.2HR/FB%10.6
RedsCubs
0.298BABIP0.288
4.09ERA3.81
4.03FIP3.94
4.09xFIP4.09
1.28WHIP1.29
3.63SIERA3.8
5.1WAR2.9

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Graham Ashcraft F54-4-3 (50%)2-0-1 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-4-2 (0%)
Graham Ashcraft5-6 (45.5%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)1-5 (16.7%)
Javier Assad F57-3-2 (70%)3-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-1-2 (75%)
Javier Assad7-5 (58.3%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)3-0 (100%)3-3 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Graham Ashcraft F56-5-0 (54.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Graham Ashcraft8-3-0 (72.7%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)4-2-0 (66.7%)
Javier Assad F55-6-0 (45.5%)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-3-0 (0%)3-3-0 (50%)
Javier Assad4-8-0 (33.3%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-3-0 (0%)2-4-0 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F513-19-7 (40.6%)2-6-3 (25%)2-1-0 (66.7%)3-4-0 (42.9%)6-8-4 (42.9%)
Reds vs. RHP18-21 (46.2%)6-5 (54.5%)2-1 (66.7%)3-4 (42.9%)7-11 (38.9%)
Cubs vs. RHP F519-20-9 (48.7%)4-6-3 (40%)3-3-0 (50%)5-5-0 (50%)6-6-6 (50%)
Cubs vs. RHP24-24 (50%)5-8 (38.5%)3-3 (50%)7-3 (70%)9-9 (50%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F516-22-1 (42.1%)4-7-0 (36.4%)3-0-0 (100%)2-4-1 (33.3%)7-11-0 (38.9%)
Reds vs. RHP17-21-1 (44.7%)6-4-1 (60%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-5-0 (28.6%)7-11-0 (38.9%)
Cubs vs. RHP F521-24-1 (46.7%)4-6-1 (40%)4-2-0 (66.7%)5-5-0 (50%)7-11-0 (38.9%)
Cubs vs. RHP21-27-0 (43.8%)6-7-0 (46.2%)4-2-0 (66.7%)3-7-0 (30%)7-11-0 (38.9%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Graham Ashcraft7-4 (63.6%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)3-3 (50%)
Reds30-27 (52.6%)8-12 (40%)3-1 (75%)5-6 (45.5%)14-8 (63.6%)
Javier Assad9-3 (75%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)3-0 (100%)5-1 (83.3%)
Cubs28-30 (48.3%)4-13 (23.5%)2-6 (25%)7-4 (63.6%)15-7 (68.2%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Graham Ashcraft5-6 (45.5%)1-2 (33.3%)0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)3-3 (50%)
Reds26-31 (45.6%)7-13 (35%)2-2 (50%)6-5 (54.5%)11-11 (50%)
Javier Assad6-6 (50%)1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)1-2 (33.3%)4-2 (66.7%)
Cubs24-35 (40.7%)5-12 (29.4%)3-5 (37.5%)6-5 (54.5%)10-12 (45.5%)