Mystics @ Wings [ Wings +2.5 / 164.5 ]
Mystics | 8-8 (50%)Wings | 4-13 (23.5%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Wings (+2.5) a 49.9-50.3% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 164.5 around 53.1-51.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Wings have a 40.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 50.6% chance of going over the total.
Rest advantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Systems
Back road team off win w/ more rest
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage
Baller Systems
Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 7/3 | MIN | - - | - | WAS | - | - | - |
| 6/28 | DAL | WAS -2.5 DAL +2.5 | 164.5 | WAS | - | - | - |
| 6/26 | LVA [ 83 ] | WAS +7 LVA -7 | 160 | WAS [ 94 ] | +11 | +18 | +17 |
| 6/24 | WAS [ 68 ] | WAS +7.5 MIN -7.5 | 156 | MIN [ 64 ] | +4 | +11.5 | -24 |
| 6/22 | WAS [ 91 ] | WAS -6 DAL +6 | 167 | DAL [ 88 ] | +3 | -3 | +12 |
| 6/20 | ATL [ 92 ] | WAS +9.5 ATL -9.5 | 157 | WAS [ 91 ] | -1 | +8.5 | +26 |
| 6/17 | CHI [ 72 ] | WAS -4.5 CHI +4.5 | 155.5 | WAS [ 79 ] | +7 | +2.5 | -4.5 |
| 6/15 | WAS [ 56 ] | WAS +4 ATL -4 | 158 | ATL [ 89 ] | -33 | -29 | -13 |
| 6/8 | WAS [ 104 ] | WAS -8 CON +8 | 155.5 | CON [ 67 ] | +37 | +29 | +15.5 |
| 6/5 | WAS [ 78 ] | WAS +13 NYL -13 | 160 | NYL [ 86 ] | -8 | +5 | +4 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 7/3 | DAL | - - | - | PHO | - | - | - |
| 6/28 | DAL | DAL +2.5 WAS -2.5 | 164.5 | WAS | - | - | - |
| 6/27 | DAL [ 86 ] | DAL +1.5 IND -1.5 | 166.5 | IND [ 94 ] | -8 | -6.5 | +13.5 |
| 6/24 | DAL [ 68 ] | DAL +8.5 ATL -8.5 | 169.5 | ATL [ 55 ] | +13 | +21.5 | -46.5 |
| 6/22 | WAS [ 91 ] | DAL +6 WAS -6 | 167 | DAL [ 88 ] | -3 | +3 | +12 |
| 6/20 | CON [ 83 ] | DAL -4.5 CON +4.5 | 164.5 | DAL [ 86 ] | +3 | -1.5 | +4.5 |
| 6/17 | DAL [ 80 ] | DAL -3.5 GSV +3.5 | 164.5 | GSV [ 71 ] | +9 | +5.5 | -13.5 |
| 6/13 | LVA [ 88 ] | DAL +5.5 LVA -5.5 | 170 | DAL [ 84 ] | -4 | +1.5 | +2 |
| 6/11 | PHO [ 93 ] | DAL +7 PHO -7 | 167 | DAL [ 80 ] | -13 | -6 | +6 |
| 6/8 | DAL [ 65 ] | DAL +13 MIN -13 | 166.5 | MIN [ 81 ] | -16 | -3 | -20.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 8/10 | DAL | - - | - | WAS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6/28 | DAL | DAL +2.5 WAS -2.5 | 164.5 | WAS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6/22 | WAS [ 91 ] | DAL +6 WAS -6 | 167 | DAL [ 88 ] | -3 | +3 | +12 | 92.8 | 103 | 106.6 | -3.5 | 162.1 |
| 9/3 | DAL [ 86 ] | DAL -5.5 WAS +5.5 | 174.5 | WAS [ 90 ] | -4 | -9.5 | +1.5 | 92.7 | 111.4 | 116.5 | -5.2 | 176 |
| 6/23 | WAS [ 92 ] | DAL +1 WAS -1 | 163 | DAL [ 84 ] | -8 | -7 | +13 | 91.7 | 109.9 | 120.4 | -10.5 | 176 |
| 6/22 | WAS [ 97 ] | DAL -3 WAS +3 | 159.5 | DAL [ 69 ] | -28 | -31 | +6.5 | 100.2 | 82.6 | 116.1 | -33.5 | 166 |
| 8/20 | WAS [ 84 ] | DAL -5 WAS +5 | 166.5 | DAL [ 97 ] | +13 | +8 | +14.5 | 103.1 | 112.9 | 97.8 | 15.1 | 181 |
| 7/28 | DAL [ 90 ] | DAL -9 WAS +9 | 165 | WAS [ 62 ] | +28 | +19 | -13 | 94.8 | 114 | 78.5 | 35.5 | 152 |
| 7/2 | DAL [ 89 ] | DAL -6.5 WAS +6.5 | 162.5 | WAS [ 72 ] | +17 | +10.5 | -1.5 | 99.2 | 107.7 | 87.1 | 20.6 | 161 |
| 6/2 | WAS [ 75 ] | DAL +7.5 WAS -7.5 | 168 | DAL [ 74 ] | -1 | +6.5 | -19 | 97.1 | 91.5 | 92.7 | -1.2 | 149 |
| 7/28 | DAL [ 77 ] | DAL -1.5 WAS +1.5 | 158 | WAS [ 87 ] | -10 | -11.5 | +6 | 91.9 | 100.6 | 113.6 | -13.1 | 164 |
| Mystics ( game/s) |
Wings ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Mystics ( game/s) |
Wings ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Mystics ( game/s) |
Wings ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Mystics ( game/s) |
Wings ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Mystics ( game/s) |
Wings ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Wings 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Wings | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics | 2-0-0 (100%) | 4-1-0 (80%) | 1-3-0 (25%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 2-2-0 (50%) | 1-0-0 (100%) | 0-0-0 (-) |
| Wings | 2-1-0 (66.7%) | 1-2-0 (33.3%) | 2-3-0 (40%) | 0-2-0 (0%) | 2-2-0 (50%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) |