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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.


Ravens Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Chiefs Situational Notes

Ravens Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15BAL
(10d rest)		BAL -9
LV +9
42.5LV
(7d rest)		---
9/5KC
(0d rest)		BAL +2.5
KC -2.5
46BAL
(0d rest)		---

Chiefs Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15KC
(10d rest)		KC -6.5
CIN +6.5
48CIN
(7d rest)		---
9/5KC
(0d rest)		KC -2.5
BAL +2.5
46BAL
(0d rest)		---

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
9/5/24
Week 1		KC
(0d rest)		KC -2.5
BAL +2.5
46BAL
(0d rest)		---KC
BAL		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		0
1		0
1
1/28/24
Week 21		BAL [ 10 ]
(8d rest)		KC +4.5
BAL -4.5
44KC [ 17 ]
(7d rest)		+7+11.5-17KC
BAL		330
353		89
81		241
272		74
58		4.5
6.1		19.4
33		1
0		2
2
9/19/21
Week 2		BAL [ 36 ]
(6d rest)		KC -3.5
BAL +3.5
53.5KC [ 35 ]
(7d rest)		-1-4.5+17.5KC
BAL		405
490		62
251		343
239		49
68		8.3
7.2		11.6
11.3		2
1		2
1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h14-2-16-2-00-0-15-0-02-0-01-1-01-0-0
Ravens 13-46-20-14-12-02-01-0
Chiefs 1h8-5-24-3-00-0-03-2-21-0-02-0-01-4-1
Chiefs 11-64-40-05-21-02-03-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h14-3-05-3-01-0-05-0-02-0-01-1-01-0-0
Ravens 11-6-05-3-00-1-03-2-02-0-01-1-01-0-0
Chiefs 1h6-9-04-3-00-0-01-6-01-0-01-1-00-6-0
Chiefs 9-7-14-4-00-0-03-3-11-0-02-0-02-3-1

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h7-9-15-3-00-1-01-4-01-0-11-1-01-0-0
Ravens 8-9-05-3-00-1-01-4-02-0-01-1-01-0-0
Chiefs 1h7-7-14-3-00-0-03-3-10-1-01-1-04-2-0
Chiefs 5-11-11-6-10-0-04-3-00-1-00-1-13-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h10-6-16-2-00-1-01-3-12-0-01-1-01-0-0
Ravens 11-6-06-2-00-1-02-3-02-0-01-1-01-0-0
Chiefs 1h6-9-02-5-00-0-03-4-01-0-01-1-02-4-0
Chiefs 4-13-02-6-00-0-02-5-00-1-01-1-02-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Ravens 1h4-13-04-4-00-1-00-5-00-2-01-1-01-0-0
Ravens 4-12-13-5-00-1-01-3-10-2-01-1-00-1-0
Chiefs 1h10-5-04-3-00-0-06-1-00-1-01-1-06-0-0
Chiefs 5-11-11-7-00-0-04-2-10-1-00-2-03-2-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Chiefs0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)2-1-1 (66.7%)
Ravens0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)7-2-0 (77.8%)1-3-0 (25%)0-0-0 (-)