Thunder @ Pacers [ Pacers +6.5 / 221.5 ]

Thunder | 83-21 (79.8%)
Pacers | 64-39 (62.1%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pacers (+6.5) a 46.5-42.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 39.5-44.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pacers have a 52.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 40.2% chance of going over the total.

Thunder Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Pacers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Thunder Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKC-
-		-IND---
6/19INDOKC -6.5
IND +6.5
221.5OKC---
6/16OKC [ 120 ]OKC -9
IND +9
223IND [ 109 ]+11+2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]OKC -6
IND +6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]+7+1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]OKC -5.5
IND +5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]-9-14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]OKC -11.5
IND +11.5
228IND [ 107 ]+16+4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]OKC -10
IND +10
230IND [ 111 ]-1-11-9
5/28OKC [ 124 ]OKC -9
MIN +9
222MIN [ 94 ]+30+21-4
5/26MIN [ 126 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
219OKC [ 128 ]+2-1+35
5/24MIN [ 143 ]OKC -3
MIN +3
216.5OKC [ 101 ]-42-45+27.5
Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/22OKC-
-		-IND---
6/19INDIND +6.5
OKC -6.5
221.5OKC---
6/16OKC [ 120 ]IND +9
OKC -9
223IND [ 109 ]-11-2+6
6/13IND [ 104 ]IND +6
OKC -6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]-7-1-12.5
6/11IND [ 116 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]+9+14.5-3
6/8OKC [ 123 ]IND +11.5
OKC -11.5
228IND [ 107 ]-16-4.5+2
6/5OKC [ 110 ]IND +10
OKC -10
230IND [ 111 ]+1+11-9
5/31IND [ 125 ]IND -4.5
NYK +4.5
222.5NYK [ 108 ]+17+12.5+10.5
5/29NYK [ 111 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
223IND [ 94 ]-17-12.5-18
5/27IND [ 130 ]IND -3
NYK +3
219NYK [ 121 ]+9+6+32
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
6/22OKC-
-		-IND----
-
-
-
-
6/19INDIND +6.5
OKC -6.5
221.5OKC----
-
-
-
-
6/16OKC [ 120 ]IND +9
OKC -9
223IND [ 109 ]-11-2+696.3
113.2
124.6
-11.4
229
6/13IND [ 104 ]IND +6
OKC -6
227.5OKC [ 111 ]-7-1-12.595.7
108.6
115.9
-7.3
215
6/11IND [ 116 ]IND +5.5
OKC -5.5
226OKC [ 107 ]+9+14.5-398.2
118.1
108.9
9.2
223
6/8OKC [ 123 ]IND +11.5
OKC -11.5
228IND [ 107 ]-16-4.5+297.1
110.1
126.6
-16.5
230
6/5OKC [ 110 ]IND +10
OKC -10
230IND [ 111 ]+1+11-9100.9
110
109
1
221
3/29OKC [ 132 ]IND +8.5
OKC -8.5
234IND [ 111 ]-21-12.5+9101.4
109.5
130.2
-20.7
243
12/26IND [ 114 ]IND +5
OKC -5
228OKC [ 120 ]-6-1+697.3
117.2
123.3
-6.2
234
4/5IND [ 126 ]IND -6
OKC +6
234.5OKC [ 112 ]+14+8+3.5100
126
112
14
238
3/12OKC [ 111 ]IND +7
OKC -7
240.5IND [ 121 ]+10+17-8.5101.7
119
109.2
9.8
232

Efficiency
Thunder
(21 game/s)		 Pacers
(21 game/s)
0.71 (1)Win Percentage0.67 (2)
0.48 (11)ATS Win%0.62 (2)
0.48 (15)OU%0.52 (8)
117.33 (3)Offensive Rating115.94 (5)
107.08 (11)Defensive Rating114.54 (21)
99.07 (2)Pace98.36 (3)
1.94 (4)A/TO Ratio1.92 (5)

Four Factors
Thunder
(21 game/s)		 Pacers
(21 game/s)
52.68 (10)EFG%56.78 (1)
50.86 (12)EFG% Allowed51.86 (15)
28.45 (6)FT Rate28.85 (5)
28.39 (25)FT Rate Allowed33.53 (29)
26.06 (10)OReb%19.85 (18)
26.95 (22)OReb% Allowed27.04 (24)
12.24 (12)TO Rate14.15 (18)
18.16 (1)TO Rate Forced14.13 (9)

Scoring
Thunder
(21 game/s)		 Pacers
(21 game/s)
116.38 (2)PPG115.48 (3)
107 (16)PPG Allowed113.48 (25)
22.67 (1)Pts off TO17.62 (4)
13.1 (11)Pts off TO Allowed14.1 (14)
13.67 (14)2nd Chance Pts11.81 (18)
14.86 (20)2nd Chance Pts Allowed15.62 (24)
16.05 (2)Fast Break Pts14.57 (5)
9.81 (12)Fast Break Pts Allowed9.62 (11)

Inside the Arc
Thunder
(21 game/s)		 Pacers
(21 game/s)
43.95 (5)Paint Attempts37.67 (15)
38.62 (16)Paint Attempts Allowed42.1 (23)
56.23 (8)Paint FG%57.9 (4)
52.77 (15)Paint FG% Allowed56.45 (23)
11.76 (7)Mid-Range Attempts13.33 (5)
9.76 (18)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed11.43 (23)
42.51 (8)Mid-Range FG%48.57 (3)
43.41 (23)Mid-Range FG% Allowed35.83 (14)

Three Point Shooting
Thunder
(21 game/s)		 Pacers
(21 game/s)
9.19 (9)Corner 3 Attempts9.71 (7)
12.19 (28)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8.33 (18)
40.41 (3)Corner 3 FG%47.55 (2)
35.16 (17)Corner 3 FG% Allowed37.14 (24)
25.62 (10)ATB3 Attempts23.62 (14)
24.62 (18)ATB3 Attempts Allowed24.95 (21)
32.53 (17)ATB3 FG%36.29 (10)
34.24 (18)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.97 (17)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h15-6-010-2-0--5-4-0--1-0-0--3-0-00-1-0
Thunder 15-610-2-5-4-1-0-1-21-0
Pacers 1h11-10-05-1-03-1-0--3-8-0----0-1-01-1-0
Pacers 14-75-12-2-7-4--1-02-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h13-7-110-2-0--3-5-1--0-1-0--3-0-00-1-0
Thunder 10-11-09-3-0--1-8-0--0-1-0--1-2-01-0-0
Pacers 1h13-8-05-1-03-1-0--5-6-0----0-1-01-1-0
Pacers 13-8-04-2-02-2-0--7-4-0----1-0-02-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h9-12-02-10-0--7-2-0--1-0-0--0-3-00-1-0
Thunder 10-11-06-6-0--4-5-0--1-0-0--1-2-00-1-0
Pacers 1h7-14-02-4-03-1-0--2-9-0----1-0-01-1-0
Pacers 11-10-04-2-01-3-0--6-5-0----1-0-01-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h9-12-06-6-0--3-6-0--0-1-0--1-2-00-1-0
Thunder 9-12-08-4-0--1-8-0--0-1-0--1-2-01-0-0
Pacers 1h10-9-24-1-13-1-0--3-7-1----1-0-01-1-0
Pacers 14-6-14-1-12-2-0--8-3-0----1-0-02-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h8-12-11-10-1--7-2-0--1-0-0--0-3-00-1-0
Thunder 9-12-03-9-0--6-3-0--1-0-0--2-1-00-1-0
Pacers 1h6-15-02-4-02-2-0--2-9-0----1-0-00-2-0
Pacers 8-13-03-3-01-3-0--4-7-0----1-0-00-2-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-5-0 (16.7%)5-1-0 (83.3%)5-5-0 (50%)
Pacers1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)6-4-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)4-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)