Pacers @ Knicks [ Knicks -4.5 / 223 ]

Pacers | 61-35 (63.5%)
Knicks | 60-38 (61.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Knicks (-4.5) a 49.4-47.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 223 around 41.8-46.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Knicks have a 53.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 40.6% chance of going over the total.

Pacers Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Knicks Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/31INDIND -4
NYK +4
218.5NYK---
5/29NYKIND +4.5
NYK -4.5
223IND---
5/27IND [ 130 ]IND -3
NYK +3
219NYK [ 121 ]+9+6+32
5/25IND [ 100 ]IND -1.5
NYK +1.5
223.5NYK [ 106 ]-6-7.5-17.5
5/23NYK [ 109 ]IND +6
NYK -6
224IND [ 114 ]+5+11-1
5/21NYK [ 135 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
221.5IND [ 138 ]+3+7.5+51.5
5/13CLE [ 105 ]IND +8.5
CLE -8.5
230IND [ 114 ]+9+17.5-11
5/11IND [ 129 ]IND +5
CLE -5
230.5CLE [ 109 ]+20+25+7.5
5/9IND [ 104 ]IND +5.5
CLE -5.5
232CLE [ 126 ]-22-16.5-2
5/6CLE [ 119 ]IND +5.5
CLE -5.5
227IND [ 120 ]+1+6.5+12
Knicks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/31INDNYK +4
IND -4
218.5NYK---
5/29NYKNYK -4.5
IND +4.5
223IND---
5/27IND [ 130 ]NYK +3
IND -3
219NYK [ 121 ]-9-6+32
5/25IND [ 100 ]NYK +1.5
IND -1.5
223.5NYK [ 106 ]+6+7.5-17.5
5/23NYK [ 109 ]NYK -6
IND +6
224IND [ 114 ]-5-11-1
5/21NYK [ 135 ]NYK -4.5
IND +4.5
221.5IND [ 138 ]-3-7.5+51.5
5/16NYK [ 119 ]NYK -3
BOS +3
211BOS [ 81 ]+38+35-11
5/14BOS [ 127 ]NYK +5
BOS -5
208NYK [ 102 ]-25-20+21
5/12NYK [ 121 ]NYK +5.5
BOS -5.5
208.5BOS [ 113 ]+8+13.5+25.5
5/10NYK [ 93 ]NYK +6
BOS -6
210BOS [ 115 ]-22-16-2
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
6/2NYK-
-		-IND----
-
-
-
-
5/31INDNYK +4
IND -4
218.5NYK----
-
-
-
-
5/29NYKNYK -4.5
IND +4.5
223IND----
-
-
-
-
5/27IND [ 130 ]NYK +3
IND -3
219NYK [ 121 ]-9-6+32102.5
118
126.8
-8.8
251
5/25IND [ 100 ]NYK +1.5
IND -1.5
223.5NYK [ 106 ]+6+7.5-17.593.9
112.9
106.5
6.4
206
5/23NYK [ 109 ]NYK -6
IND +6
224IND [ 114 ]-5-11-191.9
118.6
124.1
-5.4
223
5/21NYK [ 135 ]NYK -4.5
IND +4.5
221.5IND [ 138 ]-3-7.5+51.597.1
125.9
128.7
-2.8
247.2
2/11IND [ 115 ]NYK -2
IND +2
242NYK [ 128 ]+13+11+199.5
128.7
115.6
13.1
243
11/10IND [ 132 ]NYK -3
IND +3
229NYK [ 121 ]-11-14+2497.1
124.6
135.9
-11.3
253
10/25NYK [ 123 ]NYK -4.5
IND +4.5
229IND [ 98 ]+25+20.5-894.2
130.5
104
26.5
221
5/19NYK [ 109 ]NYK -3.5
IND +3.5
208.5IND [ 130 ]-21-24.5+30.590.1
121
144.3
-23.3
239

Efficiency
Pacers
(14 game/s)		 Knicks
(16 game/s)
0.79 (1)Win Percentage0.56 (4)
0.71 (1)ATS Win%0.56 (6)
0.57 (6)OU%0.47 (16)
118.61 (2)Offensive Rating113.78 (7)
114.59 (21)Defensive Rating113.64 (19)
98.14 (3)Pace95.12 (11)
2.35 (2)A/TO Ratio1.45 (14)

Four Factors
Pacers
(14 game/s)		 Knicks
(16 game/s)
57.74 (1)EFG%51.74 (12)
52 (15)EFG% Allowed52.6 (18)
27.57 (5)FT Rate30.32 (4)
33.39 (29)FT Rate Allowed29.33 (26)
17.9 (19)OReb%27.41 (7)
26.63 (22)OReb% Allowed25.64 (20)
12.15 (13)TO Rate13.95 (19)
13.95 (9)TO Rate Forced14.33 (8)

Scoring
Pacers
(14 game/s)		 Knicks
(16 game/s)
118.5 (2)PPG109.56 (6)
113.79 (25)PPG Allowed109.56 (22)
17.29 (4)Pts off TO14.56 (13)
12.29 (11)Pts off TO Allowed17.25 (23)
11.57 (18)2nd Chance Pts17.38 (2)
16.64 (26)2nd Chance Pts Allowed16.31 (25)
14.79 (5)Fast Break Pts11.5 (14)
8.93 (11)Fast Break Pts Allowed14.5 (23)

Inside the Arc
Pacers
(14 game/s)		 Knicks
(16 game/s)
37.86 (15)Paint Attempts41.88 (7)
40.5 (21)Paint Attempts Allowed37.25 (14)
59.43 (2)Paint FG%54.78 (12)
57.85 (24)Paint FG% Allowed55.7 (21)
14.71 (3)Mid-Range Attempts12.69 (6)
10.57 (21)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed11.38 (23)
49.51 (3)Mid-Range FG%36.95 (14)
32.43 (14)Mid-Range FG% Allowed44.51 (26)

Three Point Shooting
Pacers
(14 game/s)		 Knicks
(16 game/s)
9.36 (9)Corner 3 Attempts9.06 (11)
8.21 (18)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed7.88 (15)
47.33 (2)Corner 3 FG%36.55 (10)
36.52 (22)Corner 3 FG% Allowed34.92 (18)
24.07 (13)ATB3 Attempts22.44 (18)
27.71 (24)ATB3 Attempts Allowed27.81 (25)
37.09 (7)ATB3 FG%35.93 (11)
34.02 (17)ATB3 FG% Allowed35.28 (20)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h8-6-04-1-01-1-0--3-4-0----0-1-01-0-0
Pacers 11-34-11-1-6-1--1-01-0
Knicks 1h7-8-15-1-00-2-01-0-01-5-1------1-1-0
Knicks 9-72-41-11-05-2---1-1

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h10-4-04-1-01-1-0--5-2-0----0-1-01-0-0
Pacers 10-4-03-2-01-1-0--6-1-0----1-0-01-0-0
Knicks 1h5-11-02-4-00-2-01-0-02-5-0------1-1-0
Knicks 9-7-02-4-01-1-01-0-05-2-0------1-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h5-9-02-3-01-1-0--2-5-0----1-0-01-0-0
Pacers 8-6-03-2-01-1-0--4-3-0----1-0-01-0-0
Knicks 1h7-9-01-5-02-0-01-0-03-4-0------1-1-0
Knicks 7-8-12-4-01-1-01-0-03-3-1------1-0-1

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h8-5-14-1-01-1-0--3-3-1----1-0-01-0-0
Pacers 10-3-13-1-11-1-0--6-1-0----1-0-01-0-0
Knicks 1h6-10-02-4-00-2-01-0-03-4-0------1-1-0
Knicks 9-7-03-3-01-1-01-0-04-3-0------2-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h5-9-02-3-01-1-0--2-5-0----1-0-00-1-0
Pacers 6-8-03-2-01-1-0--2-5-0----1-0-00-1-0
Knicks 1h10-6-03-3-02-0-00-1-05-2-0------2-0-0
Knicks 10-6-04-2-02-0-01-0-03-4-0------1-1-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Pacers0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)5-2-0 (71.4%)0-1-0 (0%)3-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)
Knicks1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)3-0-0 (100%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)