Celtics @ Bulls [ Bulls +4 / 209 ]

Celtics | 50-38 (56.8%)
Bulls | 42-40 (51.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+4) a 47.9-53.2% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 209 around 52.9-56% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 53.8% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 53.8% chance of going over the total.

Celtics Situational Notes

Bulls Situational Notes

Celtics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/19BOS-
-		-NYK---
5/16NYK [ 119 ]BOS +3
NYK -3
211BOS [ 81 ]-38-35-11
5/14BOS [ 127 ]BOS -5
NYK +5
208NYK [ 102 ]+25+20+21
5/12NYK [ 121 ]BOS -5.5
NYK +5.5
208.5BOS [ 113 ]-8-13.5+25.5
5/10NYK [ 93 ]BOS -6
NYK +6
210BOS [ 115 ]+22+16-2
5/7BOS [ 90 ]BOS -10.5
NYK +10.5
211NYK [ 91 ]-1-11.5-30
5/5BOS [ 105 ]BOS -9
NYK +9
213NYK [ 108 ]-3-120
4/29BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
ORL +11.5
199ORL [ 89 ]+31+19.5+10
4/27ORL [ 98 ]BOS -8
ORL +8
199BOS [ 107 ]+9+1+6
4/25ORL [ 95 ]BOS -5.5
ORL +5.5
201BOS [ 93 ]-2-7.5-13
Bulls Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/16CHI [ 90 ]CHI -2
MIA +2
220MIA [ 109 ]-19-21-21
4/13PHI [ 102 ]CHI -8
PHI +8
237CHI [ 122 ]+20+12-13
4/11CHI [ 119 ]CHI -14
WAS +14
236.5WAS [ 89 ]+30+16-28.5
4/9CHI [ 119 ]CHI +2.5
MIA -2.5
227.5MIA [ 111 ]+8+10.5+2.5
4/8CLE [ 135 ]CHI +15
CLE -15
240CHI [ 113 ]-22-7+8
4/6CHA [ 117 ]CHI -8
CHA +8
230.5CHI [ 131 ]+14+6+17.5
4/4CHI [ 118 ]CHI -6.5
POR +6.5
233.5POR [ 113 ]+5-1.5-2.5
4/1CHI [ 137 ]CHI -4
TOR +4
237.5TOR [ 118 ]+19+15+17.5
3/31OKC [ 145 ]CHI +15.5
OKC -15.5
240.5CHI [ 117 ]-28-12.5+21.5
3/29CHI [ 119 ]CHI -3
DAL +3
239.5DAL [ 120 ]-1-4-0.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
1/29BOS [ 122 ]CHI +14.5
BOS -14.5
232CHI [ 100 ]-22-7.5-1098.9
101.2
123.4
-22.3
222
12/21CHI [ 98 ]CHI +12
BOS -12
239.5BOS [ 123 ]-25-13-18.5100.3
97.7
122.7
-24.9
221
12/19BOS [ 108 ]CHI +14.5
BOS -14.5
240.5CHI [ 117 ]+9+23.5-15.596.9
120.7
111.5
9.3
225
11/29CHI [ 129 ]CHI +12.5
BOS -12.5
243.5BOS [ 138 ]-9+3.5+23.5103.2
125
133.7
-8.7
267
3/23CHI [ 113 ]CHI +5.5
BOS -5.5
219.5BOS [ 124 ]-11-5.5+17.590.2
125.2
137.4
-12.2
237
2/22CHI [ 112 ]CHI +8
BOS -8
225.5BOS [ 129 ]-17-9+15.598.2
114
131.3
-17.3
241
11/28BOS [ 124 ]CHI +12.5
BOS -12.5
219CHI [ 97 ]-27-14.5+296.6
100.4
128.4
-28
221
1/9BOS [ 107 ]CHI +9
BOS -9
236CHI [ 99 ]-8+1-3093.5
105.8
114.4
-8.6
206
11/21CHI [ 121 ]CHI +5.5
BOS -5.5
230BOS [ 107 ]+14+19.5-2103.2
117.3
103.7
13.6
228
11/4BOS [ 123 ]CHI +7
BOS -7
223.5CHI [ 119 ]-4+3+18.5105
113.3
117.2
-3.8
242
10/24CHI [ 120 ]CHI +5.5
BOS -5.5
226BOS [ 102 ]+18+23.5-498.8
121.4
103.2
18.2
222

Efficiency
Celtics
(11 game/s)		 Bulls
(1 game/s)
0.55 (6)Win Percentage0 (18)
0.45 (11)ATS Win%0 (18)
0.5 (8)OU%0 (20)
113.92 (6)Offensive Rating91.89 (20)
108.41 (12)Defensive Rating112.73 (18)
91.74 (18)Pace97.32 (5)
1.52 (13)A/TO Ratio0.83 (20)

Four Factors
Celtics
(11 game/s)		 Bulls
(1 game/s)
52.79 (9)EFG%45.78 (20)
49.09 (12)EFG% Allowed57.23 (27)
27.27 (6)FT Rate20.48 (18)
26.84 (21)FT Rate Allowed26.51 (19)
25.98 (10)OReb%16.28 (20)
27.7 (25)OReb% Allowed22.5 (14)
14.2 (20)TO Rate18.38 (29)
13.28 (11)TO Rate Forced15.51 (6)

Scoring
Celtics
(11 game/s)		 Bulls
(1 game/s)
105.73 (13)PPG90 (20)
100.18 (11)PPG Allowed109 (22)
15.36 (12)Pts off TO13 (16)
15.09 (19)Pts off TO Allowed26 (30)
14.91 (9)2nd Chance Pts9 (20)
15.64 (23)2nd Chance Pts Allowed17 (28)
11.18 (16)Fast Break Pts13 (9)
11.27 (15)Fast Break Pts Allowed14 (22)

Inside the Arc
Celtics
(11 game/s)		 Bulls
(1 game/s)
34 (19)Paint Attempts40 (11)
38.36 (16)Paint Attempts Allowed44 (24)
55.08 (10)Paint FG%50 (19)
55.21 (20)Paint FG% Allowed63.64 (29)
9.64 (11)Mid-Range Attempts6 (17)
14.45 (28)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed4 (11)
39.62 (12)Mid-Range FG%50 (2)
37.74 (17)Mid-Range FG% Allowed0 (11)

Three Point Shooting
Celtics
(11 game/s)		 Bulls
(1 game/s)
6.64 (18)Corner 3 Attempts3 (19)
8.45 (19)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8 (17)
35.62 (11)Corner 3 FG%0 (20)
35.48 (20)Corner 3 FG% Allowed50 (29)
32.18 (2)ATB3 Attempts34 (1)
23.64 (17)ATB3 Attempts Allowed27 (23)
36.72 (8)ATB3 FG%29.41 (18)
30.38 (11)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.33 (16)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h7-3-13-2-1--4-0-00-1-0----1-1-0--
Celtics 6-54-2-2-20-1--1-1-
Bulls 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Bulls 0-10-1---0-1---

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h6-5-02-4-0--4-0-00-1-0----1-1-0--
Celtics 5-6-03-3-0--2-2-00-1-0----1-1-0--
Bulls 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Bulls 0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h4-7-01-5-0--3-1-00-1-0----0-2-0--
Celtics 5-5-13-2-1--2-2-00-1-0----0-1-1--
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Bulls 0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h5-5-12-4-0--3-0-10-1-0----1-1-0--
Celtics 6-5-03-3-0--3-1-00-1-0----0-2-0--
Bulls 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Bulls 0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h4-7-03-3-0--0-4-01-0-0----1-1-0--
Celtics 6-5-03-3-0--2-2-01-0-0----1-1-0--
Bulls 1h1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Bulls 0-0-10-0-1------0-0-1------


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Bulls0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)