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Knicks @ Pistons [ Pistons -7 / 199.5 ]

Knicks | 32-50 (39%)
Pistons | 44-42 (51.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pistons (-7) a 48.3-42.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 199.5 around 48.8-54.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pistons have a 54.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 46.1% chance of going over the total.

Knicks Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Pistons Situational Notes

Knicks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/21	NYK	NYK -3.5 IND +3.5	221	IND	-	-	-
5/16	NYK	NYK -3 BOS +3	211	BOS	-	-	-
5/14	BOS [ 127 ]	NYK +5 BOS -5	208	NYK [ 102 ]	-25	-20	+21
5/12	NYK [ 121 ]	NYK +5.5 BOS -5.5	208.5	BOS [ 113 ]	+8	+13.5	+25.5
5/10	NYK [ 93 ]	NYK +6 BOS -6	210	BOS [ 115 ]	-22	-16	-2
5/7	BOS [ 90 ]	NYK +10.5 BOS -10.5	211	NYK [ 91 ]	+1	+11.5	-30
5/5	BOS [ 105 ]	NYK +9 BOS -9	213	NYK [ 108 ]	+3	+12	0
5/1	DET [ 113 ]	NYK +1 DET -1	212.5	NYK [ 116 ]	+3	+4	+16.5
4/29	NYK [ 103 ]	NYK -5.5 DET +5.5	215	DET [ 106 ]	-3	-8.5	-6
4/27	DET [ 93 ]	NYK +2.5 DET -2.5	216.5	NYK [ 94 ]	+1	+3.5	-29.5

Pistons Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/1	DET [ 113 ]	DET -1 NYK +1	212.5	NYK [ 116 ]	-3	-4	+16.5
4/29	NYK [ 103 ]	DET +5.5 NYK -5.5	215	DET [ 106 ]	+3	+8.5	-6
4/27	DET [ 93 ]	DET -2.5 NYK +2.5	216.5	NYK [ 94 ]	-1	-3.5	-29.5
4/24	DET [ 116 ]	DET +1.5 NYK -1.5	216.5	NYK [ 118 ]	-2	-0.5	+17.5
4/21	NYK [ 94 ]	DET +6.5 NYK -6.5	221	DET [ 100 ]	+6	+12.5	-27
4/19	NYK [ 123 ]	DET +6.5 NYK -6.5	221	DET [ 112 ]	-11	-4.5	+14
4/13	MIL [ 140 ]	DET -9 MIL +9	222.5	DET [ 133 ]	-7	-16	+50.5
4/11	DET [ 119 ]	DET -4.5 MIL +4.5	229.5	MIL [ 125 ]	-6	-10.5	+14.5
4/10	DET [ 115 ]	DET -3.5 NYK +3.5	228.5	NYK [ 106 ]	+9	+5.5	-7.5
4/7	DET [ 117 ]	DET -5.5 SAC +5.5	231	SAC [ 127 ]	-10	-15.5	+13

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
5/1	DET [ 113 ]	DET -1 NYK +1	212.5	NYK [ 116 ]	-3	-4	+16.5	100.5	112.5	115.4	-3	229
4/29	NYK [ 103 ]	DET +5.5 NYK -5.5	215	DET [ 106 ]	+3	+8.5	-6	97.7	108.5	105.4	3.1	209
4/27	DET [ 93 ]	DET -2.5 NYK +2.5	216.5	NYK [ 94 ]	-1	-3.5	-29.5	92	101.1	102.2	-1.1	187
4/24	DET [ 116 ]	DET +1.5 NYK -1.5	216.5	NYK [ 118 ]	-2	-0.5	+17.5	96.7	119.9	122	-2.1	234
4/21	NYK [ 94 ]	DET +6.5 NYK -6.5	221	DET [ 100 ]	+6	+12.5	-27	91.8	109	102.4	6.5	194
4/19	NYK [ 123 ]	DET +6.5 NYK -6.5	221	DET [ 112 ]	-11	-4.5	+14	98.6	113.6	124.8	-11.2	235
4/10	DET [ 115 ]	DET -3.5 NYK +3.5	228.5	NYK [ 106 ]	+9	+5.5	-7.5	94	122.3	112.8	9.6	221
1/13	NYK [ 119 ]	DET +8.5 NYK -8.5	225	DET [ 124 ]	+5	+13.5	+18	97.5	127.2	122.1	5.1	243
12/7	NYK [ 111 ]	DET +8 NYK -8	223	DET [ 120 ]	+9	+17	+8	99.3	120.9	111.8	9.1	231
11/1	DET [ 98 ]	DET +6 NYK -6	218	NYK [ 128 ]	-30	-24	+8	98.5	99.5	130	-30.5	226
3/25	NYK [ 124 ]	DET +16.5 NYK -16.5	209	DET [ 99 ]	-25	-8.5	+14	98.8	100.2	125.5	-25.3	223

Efficiency

Knicks (11 game/s)		Pistons (6 game/s)
0.64 (4)	Win Percentage	0.33 (12)
0.64 (5)	ATS Win%	0.33 (15)
0.5 (9)	OU%	0.5 (9)
111.46 (10)	Offensive Rating	108.75 (16)
113.46 (20)	Defensive Rating	110.79 (14)
94.21 (11)	Pace	97.78 (4)
1.52 (13)	A/TO Ratio	1.21 (19)

Four Factors

Knicks (11 game/s)		Pistons (6 game/s)
50.63 (16)	EFG%	51.11 (14)
52.09 (18)	EFG% Allowed	51.23 (15)
28.12 (5)	FT Rate	33.67 (2)
29.69 (26)	FT Rate Allowed	26.57 (20)
26.34 (10)	OReb%	27.27 (8)
28.39 (27)	OReb% Allowed	24.52 (18)
13.51 (18)	TO Rate	16.82 (27)
15.54 (5)	TO Rate Forced	13.34 (10)

Scoring

Knicks (11 game/s)		Pistons (6 game/s)
105.73 (13)	PPG	106.67 (10)
108.18 (21)	PPG Allowed	108 (20)
16.18 (7)	Pts off TO	16.33 (6)
16.55 (21)	Pts off TO Allowed	17.17 (22)
16.55 (2)	2nd Chance Pts	16 (4)
16.91 (27)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	16.83 (26)
12.55 (10)	Fast Break Pts	17.17 (2)
14.45 (22)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	15 (25)

Inside the Arc

Knicks (11 game/s)		Pistons (6 game/s)
42.73 (7)	Paint Attempts	40.83 (10)
36.64 (14)	Paint Attempts Allowed	45.17 (29)
52.77 (14)	Paint FG%	55.51 (10)
55.83 (21)	Paint FG% Allowed	51.66 (14)
13.18 (6)	Mid-Range Attempts	10.5 (9)
9.55 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.5 (26)
36.55 (14)	Mid-Range FG%	41.27 (9)
40 (19)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	41.33 (23)

Three Point Shooting

Knicks (11 game/s)		Pistons (6 game/s)
8.55 (12)	Corner 3 Attempts	9.17 (10)
8.64 (20)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	9 (24)
39.36 (5)	Corner 3 FG%	32.73 (13)
33.68 (18)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	33.33 (17)
21.91 (18)	ATB3 Attempts	21.83 (19)
29.73 (25)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	21 (12)
34.85 (12)	ATB3 FG%	32.82 (16)
34.86 (20)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	38.1 (25)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	4-6-1	2-1-0	0-2-0	1-0-0	1-3-1	--	--	--	0-1-0
Knicks	7-4	1-2	1-1	1-0	4-1	-	-	-	1-0
Pistons 1h	2-4-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	--	1-2-0	1-0-0	--	--	--
Pistons	2-4	0-2	0-1	-	2-1	0-1	-	-	-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	3-8-0	0-3-0	0-2-0	1-0-0	2-3-0	--	--	--	0-1-0
Knicks	7-4-0	1-2-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	4-1-0	--	--	--	1-0-0
Pistons 1h	4-2-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	--	3-0-0	1-0-0	--	--	--
Pistons	2-4-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	--	2-1-0	0-1-0	--	--	--

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	5-6-0	0-3-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	2-3-0	--	--	--	0-1-0
Knicks	5-5-1	1-2-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	2-2-1	--	--	--	0-0-1
Pistons 1h	2-4-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	--	0-3-0	1-0-0	--	--	--
Pistons	3-3-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	--	1-2-0	1-0-0	--	--	--

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	3-8-0	0-3-0	0-2-0	1-0-0	2-3-0	--	--	--	0-1-0
Knicks	6-5-0	1-2-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	3-2-0	--	--	--	1-0-0
Pistons 1h	3-3-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	--	2-1-0	1-0-0	--	--	--
Pistons	4-2-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	--	2-1-0	1-0-0	--	--	--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Knicks 1h	7-4-0	2-1-0	2-0-0	0-1-0	3-2-0	--	--	--	1-0-0
Knicks	7-4-0	2-1-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	2-3-0	--	--	--	0-1-0
Pistons 1h	2-4-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	--	0-3-0	1-0-0	--	--	--
Pistons	3-3-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	--	1-2-0	1-0-0	--	--	--

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Knicks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)
Pistons	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)