Kings @ Hawks [ Hawks +1.5 / 215.5 ]

Kings | 33-49 (40.2%)
Hawks | 52-40 (56.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hawks (+1.5) a 54.1-49% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 215.5 around 52.9-51.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hawks have a 58.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 54.7% chance of going over the total.

Kings Situational Notes

Hawks Situational Notes

Kings Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/16SAC [ 106 ]SAC -5.5
DAL +5.5
213.5DAL [ 120 ]-14-19.5+12.5
4/13SAC [ 109 ]SAC -14
PHO +14
222.5PHO [ 98 ]+11-3-15.5
4/11SAC [ 100 ]SAC +7
LAC -7
224.5LAC [ 101 ]-1+6-23.5
4/9SAC [ 116 ]SAC +4.5
DEN -4.5
234.5DEN [ 124 ]-8-3.5+5.5
4/7DET [ 117 ]SAC +5.5
DET -5.5
231SAC [ 127 ]+10+15.5+13
4/6CLE [ 113 ]SAC +9.5
CLE -9.5
238SAC [ 120 ]+7+16.5-5
4/4CHA [ 102 ]SAC -12
CHA +12
215.5SAC [ 125 ]+23+11+11.5
4/2WAS [ 116 ]SAC -14
WAS +14
232SAC [ 111 ]-5-19-5
3/31IND [ 111 ]SAC +4
IND -4
234.5SAC [ 109 ]-2+2-14.5
3/29ORL [ 121 ]SAC +1.5
ORL -1.5
213SAC [ 91 ]-30-28.5-1
Hawks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/18ATL [ 114 ]ATL +2
MIA -2
221MIA [ 123 ]-9-7+16
4/15ORL [ 120 ]ATL +5.5
ORL -5.5
220.5ATL [ 95 ]-25-19.5-5.5
4/13ATL [ 117 ]ATL +3.5
ORL -3.5
215.5ORL [ 105 ]+12+15.5+6.5
4/11PHI [ 110 ]ATL -11.5
PHI +11.5
240ATL [ 124 ]+14+2.5-6
4/10BKN [ 109 ]ATL -13.5
BKN +13.5
234.5ATL [ 133 ]+24+10.5+7.5
4/8ORL [ 119 ]ATL +5.5
ORL -5.5
225ATL [ 112 ]-7-1.5+6
4/6ATL [ 147 ]ATL -13.5
UTA +13.5
245.5UTA [ 134 ]+13-0.5+35.5
4/5ATL [ 105 ]ATL +1.5
NYK -1.5
235.5NYK [ 121 ]-16-14.5-9.5
4/2DAL [ 120 ]ATL +3.5
DAL -3.5
241ATL [ 118 ]-2+1.5-3
4/1ATL [ 113 ]ATL -6
POR +6
235.5POR [ 127 ]-14-20+4.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
11/18SAC [ 108 ]ATL +4
SAC -4
236ATL [ 109 ]+1+5-1996.8
112.7
111.6
1
217
11/1ATL [ 115 ]ATL +6
SAC -6
237SAC [ 123 ]-8-2+198.2
117.1
125.3
-8.1
238
1/22SAC [ 122 ]ATL +8.5
SAC -8.5
238.5ATL [ 107 ]-15-6.5-9.5100.8
106.2
121.1
-14.9
229
12/29ATL [ 110 ]ATL -1
SAC +1
252SAC [ 117 ]-7-8-2599.2
110.9
117.9
-7.1
227
1/4SAC [ 117 ]ATL +1.5
SAC -1.5
245.5ATL [ 120 ]+3+4.5-8.599.2
121
117.9
3
237
11/23ATL [ 115 ]ATL -5.5
SAC +5.5
241.5SAC [ 106 ]+9+3.5-20.5104.2
110.4
101.8
8.6
221
1/26ATL [ 121 ]ATL -10
SAC +10
230SAC [ 104 ]+17+7-5100.1
120.9
103.9
17
225
1/5SAC [ 102 ]ATL +1.5
SAC -1.5
229.5ATL [ 108 ]+6+7.5-19.597.4
110.9
104.8
6.2
210
3/24SAC [ 110 ]ATL -3
SAC +3
231.5ATL [ 108 ]-2-5-13.595.1
113.5
115.6
-2.1
218
3/13ATL [ 121 ]ATL -4
SAC +4
239.5SAC [ 106 ]+15+11-12.592.3
131.1
114.8
16.3
227
11/8ATL [ 109 ]ATL +2.5
SAC -2.5
225SAC [ 121 ]-12-9.5+590.2
120.8
134.1
-13.3
230

Efficiency
Kings
(1 game/s)		 Hawks
(2 game/s)
0 (18)Win Percentage0 (18)
0 (18)ATS Win%0 (18)
1 (1)OU%0.5 (9)
111.01 (13)Offensive Rating107.16 (18)
130.61 (30)Defensive Rating120.25 (28)
93.68 (13)Pace94.36 (10)
1.28 (17)A/TO Ratio2.89 (1)

Four Factors
Kings
(1 game/s)		 Hawks
(2 game/s)
53.37 (9)EFG%46.24 (19)
57.83 (28)EFG% Allowed56.42 (26)
16.85 (20)FT Rate24.73 (14)
31.33 (28)FT Rate Allowed24.06 (17)
32.61 (1)OReb%19.42 (18)
25.64 (19)OReb% Allowed27.47 (24)
18.85 (30)TO Rate9.23 (11)
10.88 (20)TO Rate Forced12.37 (14)

Scoring
Kings
(1 game/s)		 Hawks
(2 game/s)
106 (12)PPG104.5 (14)
120 (29)PPG Allowed121.5 (30)
15 (13)Pts off TO16 (9)
18 (24)Pts off TO Allowed15 (19)
13 (15)2nd Chance Pts14.5 (11)
4 (11)2nd Chance Pts Allowed21.5 (30)
15 (4)Fast Break Pts13 (8)
14 (21)Fast Break Pts Allowed16.5 (27)

Inside the Arc
Kings
(1 game/s)		 Hawks
(2 game/s)
39 (12)Paint Attempts55 (1)
39 (17)Paint Attempts Allowed41 (22)
51.28 (17)Paint FG%49.09 (20)
51.28 (13)Paint FG% Allowed64.63 (30)
17 (1)Mid-Range Attempts4 (20)
16 (30)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed12 (25)
47.06 (4)Mid-Range FG%25 (20)
43.75 (25)Mid-Range FG% Allowed50 (29)

Three Point Shooting
Kings
(1 game/s)		 Hawks
(2 game/s)
3 (19)Corner 3 Attempts7.5 (17)
8 (18)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9 (24)
66.67 (1)Corner 3 FG%20 (19)
37.5 (24)Corner 3 FG% Allowed33.33 (17)
30 (4)ATB3 Attempts26.5 (10)
19 (11)ATB3 Attempts Allowed31 (28)
36.67 (9)ATB3 FG%32.08 (17)
57.89 (30)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.87 (17)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Kings 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Kings 0-10-1---0-1---
Hawks 1h0-2-0--0-1-0--0-1-00-1-0--0-1-0--
Hawks 0-2-0-1-0-10-1-0-1-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Kings 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Kings 0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Hawks 1h0-2-0--0-1-0--0-1-00-1-0--0-1-0--
Hawks 0-2-0--0-1-0--0-1-00-1-0--0-1-0--

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Kings 1h1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Kings 1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Hawks 1h1-1-0--1-0-0--0-1-01-0-0--1-0-0--
Hawks 1-1-0--1-0-0--0-1-01-0-0--1-0-0--

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Kings 1h0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Kings 0-1-00-1-0------0-1-0------
Hawks 1h0-2-0--0-1-0--0-1-00-1-0--0-1-0--
Hawks 1-1-0--1-0-0--0-1-01-0-0--1-0-0--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Kings 1h1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Kings 1-0-01-0-0------1-0-0------
Hawks 1h2-0-0--1-0-0--1-0-01-0-0--1-0-0--
Hawks 2-0-0--1-0-0--1-0-01-0-0--1-0-0--


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Kings0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Hawks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)