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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pacers (+7.5) a 55.8-66.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 222.5 around 77.7-73% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pacers have a 72.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 77.1% chance of going over the total.


Celtics Situational Notes

Pacers Situational Notes
In-season revenge

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/6BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL---
5/27INDBOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS---
5/25IND [ 111 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]+3-4.5+2.5
5/23BOS [ 126 ]BOS -9
IND +9
225IND [ 110 ]+16+7+11
5/21BOS [ 133 ]BOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND [ 128 ]+5-5+39.5
5/15BOS [ 113 ]BOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE [ 98 ]+15+0.5+6.5
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5
5/11CLE [ 93 ]BOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS [ 106 ]+13+5-12
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]+25+13.5+5

Pacers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/27INDIND +7.5
BOS -7.5
222.5BOS---
5/25IND [ 111 ]IND +7.5
BOS -7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]-3+4.5+2.5
5/23BOS [ 126 ]IND +9
BOS -9
225IND [ 110 ]-16-7+11
5/21BOS [ 133 ]IND +10
BOS -10
221.5IND [ 128 ]-5+5+39.5
5/19NYK [ 109 ]IND +3.5
NYK -3.5
208.5IND [ 130 ]+21+24.5+30.5
5/17IND [ 116 ]IND -5.5
NYK +5.5
216NYK [ 103 ]+13+7.5+3
5/14NYK [ 121 ]IND +2.5
NYK -2.5
217.5IND [ 91 ]-30-27.5-5.5
5/12IND [ 121 ]IND -5.5
NYK +5.5
218.5NYK [ 89 ]+32+26.5-8.5
5/10IND [ 111 ]IND -7
NYK +7
222.5NYK [ 106 ]+5-2-5.5
5/8NYK [ 130 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
218.5IND [ 121 ]-9-4.5+32.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/27INDIND +7.5
BOS -7.5
222.5BOS--------
5/25IND [ 111 ]IND +7.5
BOS -7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]-3+4.5+2.5113.1117.7120.9-3.2225
5/23BOS [ 126 ]IND +9
BOS -9
225IND [ 110 ]-16-7+11110.5119.4136.8-17.4236
5/21BOS [ 133 ]IND +10
BOS -10
221.5IND [ 128 ]-5+5+39.5120.3115.7120.2-4.5236.4
1/30BOS [ 129 ]IND +8
BOS -8
249IND [ 124 ]-5+3+4117.7126.4131.5-5.1253
1/8IND [ 133 ]IND +3.5
BOS -3.5
246BOS [ 131 ]+2+5.5+18122.8130128.12264
1/6IND [ 101 ]IND +7
BOS -7
250.5BOS [ 118 ]-17-10-31.5119.1101.7118.9-17.1219
12/4IND [ 122 ]IND +4.5
BOS -4.5
245BOS [ 112 ]+10+14.5-11122.6119.4109.69.8234
11/1BOS [ 155 ]IND +13.5
BOS -13.5
233IND [ 104 ]-51-37.5+26125.599.5148.3-48.8259
3/24BOS [ 120 ]IND +11
BOS -11
236.5IND [ 95 ]-25-14-21.5125.490.9114.8-23.9215
2/23IND [ 138 ]IND +7.5
BOS -7.5
233BOS [ 142 ]-4+3.5+47113.4132.3136.1-3.8253.6


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h10-1-26-0-20-0-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 11-26-20-05-00-00-00-00-00-0
Pacers 1h11-4-16-0-01-0-00-2-04-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 8-86-00-10-22-50-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h8-5-04-4-00-0-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-5-14-3-10-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h11-5-05-1-01-0-00-2-05-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 9-7-04-2-01-0-00-2-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h6-6-14-3-10-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-5-06-2-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h10-6-04-2-01-0-00-2-05-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 10-5-13-2-11-0-00-2-06-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h9-4-06-2-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-6-06-2-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h12-4-06-0-01-0-00-2-05-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 12-4-05-1-01-0-00-2-06-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h6-7-04-4-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-6-05-3-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h7-9-02-4-00-1-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 9-7-02-4-00-1-01-1-06-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Pacers1-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-2-0 (60%)5-3-0 (62.5%)