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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mavericks (-2.5) a 38.7-57.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 207.5 around 75.5-70.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mavericks have a 44.1% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 77.6% chance of going over the total.


Timberwolves Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Timberwolves Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/28DALMIN +1.5
DAL -1.5
210.5MIN---
5/26DALMIN +2.5
DAL -2.5
207.5MIN---
5/24MIN [ 108 ]MIN -5.5
DAL +5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]-1-6.5+10
5/22MIN [ 105 ]MIN -4
DAL +4
207DAL [ 108 ]-3-7+6
5/19DEN [ 90 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
199MIN [ 98 ]+8+12.5-11
5/16MIN [ 115 ]MIN -2.5
DEN +2.5
204.5DEN [ 70 ]+45+42.5-19.5
5/14DEN [ 112 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
205.5MIN [ 97 ]-15-10.5+3.5
5/12MIN [ 107 ]MIN -3
DEN +3
204.5DEN [ 115 ]-8-11+17.5
5/10MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
DEN +4.5
204.5DEN [ 117 ]-27-31.5+2.5
5/6DEN [ 80 ]MIN +5.5
DEN -5.5
205.5MIN [ 106 ]+26+31.5-19.5

Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/28DALDAL -1.5
MIN +1.5
210.5MIN---
5/26DALDAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
207.5MIN---
5/24MIN [ 108 ]DAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]+1+6.5+10
5/22MIN [ 105 ]DAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL [ 108 ]+3+7+6
5/18DAL [ 117 ]DAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC [ 116 ]+1-2.5+23.5
5/15OKC [ 92 ]DAL +4.5
OKC -4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]+12+16.5-17
5/13DAL [ 96 ]DAL -1
OKC +1
213OKC [ 100 ]-4-5-17
5/11DAL [ 105 ]DAL -2.5
OKC +2.5
218OKC [ 101 ]+4+1.5-12
5/9OKC [ 110 ]DAL +5
OKC -5
217.5DAL [ 119 ]+9+14+11.5
5/7OKC [ 117 ]DAL +3.5
OKC -3.5
218DAL [ 95 ]-22-18.5-6

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/30MINDAL +4.5
MIN -4.5
209.5DAL--------
5/28DALDAL -1.5
MIN +1.5
210.5MIN--------
5/26DALDAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
207.5MIN--------
5/24MIN [ 108 ]DAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]+1+6.5+10109.4119.5118.51.1217
5/22MIN [ 105 ]DAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL [ 108 ]+3+7+6113.3114.4111.33.2213
1/31MIN [ 121 ]DAL +14
MIN -14
221.5DAL [ 87 ]-34-20-13.5110.394.6131.6-37208
1/7DAL [ 115 ]DAL +2
MIN -2
234.5MIN [ 108 ]+7+9-11.5114.2120.9113.57.4223
12/28MIN [ 118 ]DAL +12.5
MIN -12.5
228DAL [ 110 ]-8+4.50120.3109.7117.7-8228
12/14DAL [ 101 ]DAL +2
MIN -2
231.5MIN [ 119 ]-18-16-11.5119.8101.2119.2-18220
2/13DAL [ 121 ]DAL -5.5
MIN +5.5
232MIN [ 124 ]-3-8.5+13114.4127130.1-3.1245
12/21MIN [ 99 ]DAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
227.5DAL [ 104 ]+5+2.5-24.5110.1113.3107.95.4203


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h6-7-04-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-53-40-00-05-10-00-00-00-0
Mavericks 1h6-7-12-3-10-0-01-1-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 10-44-20-01-15-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h6-7-04-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-5-03-4-00-0-00-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h6-8-02-4-00-0-01-1-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-5-03-3-00-0-01-1-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h6-7-04-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-5-05-2-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h6-8-02-4-00-0-00-2-04-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 7-7-03-3-00-0-01-1-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h7-6-04-3-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 9-4-04-3-00-0-00-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h4-10-00-6-00-0-01-1-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 7-7-03-3-00-0-01-1-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h5-8-03-4-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 7-6-04-3-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h8-6-03-3-00-0-01-1-04-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 6-8-03-3-00-0-01-1-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-1-0 (80%)1-1-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-1-0 (80%)1-0-0 (100%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)