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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-10) a 50-50.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 221.5 around 74.7-68% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 66.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 75% chance of going over the total.


Pacers Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Celtics Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Pacers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/23BOSIND +9
BOS -9
225IND---
5/21BOSIND +10
BOS -10
221.5IND---
5/19NYK [ 109 ]IND +3.5
NYK -3.5
208.5IND [ 130 ]+21+24.5+30.5
5/17IND [ 116 ]IND -5.5
NYK +5.5
216NYK [ 103 ]+13+7.5+3
5/14NYK [ 121 ]IND +2.5
NYK -2.5
217.5IND [ 91 ]-30-27.5-5.5
5/12IND [ 121 ]IND -5.5
NYK +5.5
218.5NYK [ 89 ]+32+26.5-8.5
5/10IND [ 111 ]IND -7
NYK +7
222.5NYK [ 106 ]+5-2-5.5
5/8NYK [ 130 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
218.5IND [ 121 ]-9-4.5+32.5
5/6NYK [ 121 ]IND +5.5
NYK -5.5
217IND [ 117 ]-4+1.5+21
5/2IND [ 120 ]IND -6
MIL +6
218MIL [ 98 ]+22+160

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/23BOSBOS -9
IND +9
225IND---
5/21BOSBOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND---
5/15BOS [ 113 ]BOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE [ 98 ]+15+0.5+6.5
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5
5/11CLE [ 93 ]BOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS [ 106 ]+13+5-12
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]+25+13.5+5
5/1BOS [ 118 ]BOS -13
MIA +13
201.5MIA [ 84 ]+34+21+0.5
4/29MIA [ 88 ]BOS -10.5
MIA +10.5
203.5BOS [ 102 ]+14+3.5-13.5
4/27MIA [ 84 ]BOS -9.5
MIA +9.5
206.5BOS [ 104 ]+20+10.5-18.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/27INDBOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS--------
5/25INDBOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS--------
5/23BOSBOS -9
IND +9
225IND--------
5/21BOSBOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND--------
1/30BOS [ 129 ]BOS -8
IND +8
249IND [ 124 ]+5-3+4117.7131.5126.45.1253
1/8IND [ 133 ]BOS -3.5
IND +3.5
246BOS [ 131 ]-2-5.5+18122.8128.1130-2264
1/6IND [ 101 ]BOS -7
IND +7
250.5BOS [ 118 ]+17+10-31.5119.1118.9101.717.1219
12/4IND [ 122 ]BOS -4.5
IND +4.5
245BOS [ 112 ]-10-14.5-11122.6109.6119.4-9.8234
11/1BOS [ 155 ]BOS -13.5
IND +13.5
233IND [ 104 ]+51+37.5+26125.5148.399.548.8259
3/24BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11
IND +11
236.5IND [ 95 ]+25+14-21.5125.4114.890.923.9215
2/23IND [ 138 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
233BOS [ 142 ]+4-3.5+47113.4136.1132.33.8253.6


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h10-3-06-0-00-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 8-56-00-00-22-30-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h9-0-15-0-10-0-04-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-24-20-04-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h9-4-05-1-00-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 7-6-04-2-00-0-00-2-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-3-03-3-00-0-04-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 6-3-13-2-10-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h8-5-04-2-00-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 7-5-13-2-10-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h4-5-13-2-10-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 5-5-04-2-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h10-3-06-0-00-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 9-4-05-1-00-0-00-2-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h8-2-05-1-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 5-5-04-2-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Pacers 1h6-7-02-4-00-0-01-1-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 7-6-02-4-00-0-01-1-04-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h4-6-03-3-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 4-6-03-3-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)5-2-0 (71.4%)
Pacers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)