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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mavericks (-3.5) a 35.1-52% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 209.5 around 78.1-60.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mavericks have a 47.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 77.7% chance of going over the total.


Thunder Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Thunder Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/18DALOKC +3.5
DAL -3.5
209.5OKC---
5/15OKC [ 92 ]OKC -4.5
DAL +4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]-12-16.5-17
5/13DAL [ 96 ]OKC +1
DAL -1
213OKC [ 100 ]+4+5-17
5/11DAL [ 105 ]OKC +2.5
DAL -2.5
218OKC [ 101 ]-4-1.5-12
5/9OKC [ 110 ]OKC -5
DAL +5
217.5DAL [ 119 ]-9-14+11.5
5/7OKC [ 117 ]OKC -3.5
DAL +3.5
218DAL [ 95 ]+22+18.5-6
4/29NOP [ 89 ]OKC -4.5
NOP +4.5
205OKC [ 97 ]+8+3.5-19
4/27NOP [ 85 ]OKC -1
NOP +1
211.5OKC [ 106 ]+21+20-20.5
4/24OKC [ 124 ]OKC -7.5
NOP +7.5
211.5NOP [ 92 ]+32+24.5+4.5
4/21OKC [ 94 ]OKC -8.5
NOP +8.5
215NOP [ 92 ]+2-6.5-29

Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/22MINDAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL---
5/18DALDAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC---
5/15OKC [ 92 ]DAL +4.5
OKC -4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]+12+16.5-17
5/13DAL [ 96 ]DAL -1
OKC +1
213OKC [ 100 ]-4-5-17
5/11DAL [ 105 ]DAL -2.5
OKC +2.5
218OKC [ 101 ]+4+1.5-12
5/9OKC [ 110 ]DAL +5
OKC -5
217.5DAL [ 119 ]+9+14+11.5
5/7OKC [ 117 ]DAL +3.5
OKC -3.5
218DAL [ 95 ]-22-18.5-6
5/3DAL [ 114 ]DAL -8.5
LAC +8.5
209LAC [ 101 ]+13+4.5+6
5/1LAC [ 93 ]DAL -3
LAC +3
209.5DAL [ 123 ]+30+27+6.5
4/28DAL [ 111 ]DAL -6
LAC +6
210LAC [ 116 ]-5-11+17

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/18DALDAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC--------
5/15OKC [ 92 ]DAL +4.5
OKC -4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]+12+16.5-17103.5120.6106.713.9196
5/13DAL [ 96 ]DAL -1
OKC +1
213OKC [ 100 ]-4-5-17113101.9106.2-4.2196
5/11DAL [ 105 ]DAL -2.5
OKC +2.5
218OKC [ 101 ]+4+1.5-12115.1109.5105.34.2206
5/9OKC [ 110 ]DAL +5
OKC -5
217.5DAL [ 119 ]+9+14+11.5115124.2114.89.4229
5/7OKC [ 117 ]DAL +3.5
OKC -3.5
218DAL [ 95 ]-22-18.5-6111.8102125.6-23.6212
4/14OKC [ 135 ]DAL +19.5
OKC -19.5
225DAL [ 86 ]-49-29.5-412582.5129.6-47221
3/14OKC [ 126 ]DAL +10
OKC -10
233DAL [ 119 ]-7+3+12120.1118.9125.9-7245
2/10DAL [ 146 ]DAL +2
OKC -2
239OKC [ 111 ]+35+37+18124.3141107.233.8257
12/2DAL [ 120 ]DAL +4
OKC -4
235OKC [ 126 ]-6-2+11120.7119.3125.3-6246
1/8OKC [ 120 ]DAL +4
OKC -4
227DAL [ 109 ]-11-7+2114.1114.7126.3-11.6229


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h5-3-12-2-10-0-02-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Thunder 6-33-20-02-01-10-00-00-00-0
Mavericks 1h6-4-12-2-10-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 7-43-20-01-13-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h4-5-02-3-00-0-01-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Thunder 5-4-02-3-00-0-02-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h6-5-02-3-00-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 7-4-03-2-00-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h3-6-03-2-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Thunder 2-7-02-3-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h3-8-01-4-00-0-00-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 4-7-02-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h4-5-03-2-00-0-01-1-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Thunder 2-7-02-3-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h3-8-00-5-00-0-01-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 4-7-02-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h2-7-02-3-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Thunder 1-8-01-4-00-0-00-2-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h5-6-02-3-00-0-01-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 4-7-02-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)