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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pacers (-5.5) a 36.3-41.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 218.5 around 5.7-5.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pacers have a 49.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 6.1% chance of going over the total.


Knicks Situational Notes
In-season revenge

Pacers Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Knicks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/14NYKNYK -2.5
IND +2.5
217.5IND---
5/12INDNYK +5.5
IND -5.5
218.5NYK---
5/10IND [ 111 ]NYK +7
IND -7
222.5NYK [ 106 ]-5+2-5.5
5/8NYK [ 130 ]NYK -4.5
IND +4.5
218.5IND [ 121 ]+9+4.5+32.5
5/6NYK [ 121 ]NYK -5.5
IND +5.5
217IND [ 117 ]+4-1.5+21
5/2PHI [ 115 ]NYK +3
PHI -3
203NYK [ 118 ]+3+6+30
4/30NYK [ 106 ]NYK -4
PHI +4
203PHI [ 112 ]-6-10+15
4/28PHI [ 92 ]NYK +5
PHI -5
209NYK [ 97 ]+5+10-20
4/25PHI [ 125 ]NYK +5.5
PHI -5.5
206NYK [ 114 ]-11-5.5+33
4/22NYK [ 104 ]NYK -4.5
PHI +4.5
206PHI [ 101 ]+3-1.5-1

Pacers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/14NYKIND +2.5
NYK -2.5
217.5IND---
5/12INDIND -5.5
NYK +5.5
218.5NYK---
5/10IND [ 111 ]IND -7
NYK +7
222.5NYK [ 106 ]+5-2-5.5
5/8NYK [ 130 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
218.5IND [ 121 ]-9-4.5+32.5
5/6NYK [ 121 ]IND +5.5
NYK -5.5
217IND [ 117 ]-4+1.5+21
5/2IND [ 120 ]IND -6
MIL +6
218MIL [ 98 ]+22+160
4/30MIL [ 115 ]IND -4
MIL +4
215IND [ 92 ]-23-27-8
4/28IND [ 126 ]IND -10
MIL +10
214.5MIL [ 113 ]+13+3+24.5
4/26IND [ 121 ]IND -6.5
MIL +6.5
224MIL [ 118 ]+3-3.5+15
4/23MIL [ 108 ]IND +1
MIL -1
223IND [ 125 ]+17+18+10

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/19NYKIND +3.5
NYK -3.5
208.5IND--------
5/17INDIND -5.5
NYK +5.5
216NYK--------
5/14NYKIND +2.5
NYK -2.5
217.5IND--------
5/12INDIND -5.5
NYK +5.5
218.5NYK--------
5/10IND [ 111 ]IND -7
NYK +7
222.5NYK [ 106 ]+5-2-5.5109122.2116.75.5217
5/8NYK [ 130 ]IND +4.5
NYK -4.5
218.5IND [ 121 ]-9-4.5+32.5109.9132.2142-9.8251
5/6NYK [ 121 ]IND +5.5
NYK -5.5
217IND [ 117 ]-4+1.5+21114.6122.5126.7-4.2238
2/10NYK [ 111 ]IND 0
NYK 0
235.5IND [ 125 ]+14+14+0.5116.8128.411414.4236
2/1NYK [ 109 ]IND +1.5
NYK -1.5
235IND [ 105 ]-4-2.5-21117.8107111.1-4.1214
12/30IND [ 140 ]IND -4
NYK +4
249NYK [ 126 ]+14+10+17120.4139.6125.614266
4/9NYK [ 136 ]IND +9.5
NYK -9.5
231.5IND [ 141 ]+5+14.5+45.5132.9127.3122.84.5277


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h3-6-02-3-00-0-00-0-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 6-34-10-00-02-20-00-00-00-0
Pacers 1h7-2-04-0-00-0-00-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 5-44-00-00-21-20-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h4-5-02-3-00-0-00-0-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 5-4-02-3-00-0-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h6-3-03-1-00-0-00-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 4-5-02-2-00-0-00-2-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h4-5-01-4-00-0-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 6-3-04-1-00-0-00-0-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h5-4-03-1-00-0-00-2-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 5-3-12-1-10-0-00-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h4-4-12-3-00-0-00-0-02-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 6-3-04-1-00-0-00-0-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h7-2-04-0-00-0-00-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 6-3-03-1-00-0-00-2-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Knicks 1h6-3-03-2-00-0-00-0-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Knicks 7-2-05-0-00-0-00-0-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 1h4-5-02-2-00-0-01-1-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Pacers 5-4-02-2-00-0-01-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Pacers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)
Knicks0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)2-3-0 (40%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)