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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Cavaliers (+8) a 55-28.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 211 around 4.9-3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Cavaliers have a 67.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 5% chance of going over the total.


Celtics Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Cavaliers Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/13CLEBOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS---
5/11CLEBOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS---
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]BOS -11.5
CLE +11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]+25+13.5+5
5/1BOS [ 118 ]BOS -13
MIA +13
201.5MIA [ 84 ]+34+21+0.5
4/29MIA [ 88 ]BOS -10.5
MIA +10.5
203.5BOS [ 102 ]+14+3.5-13.5
4/27MIA [ 84 ]BOS -9.5
MIA +9.5
206.5BOS [ 104 ]+20+10.5-18.5
4/24BOS [ 101 ]BOS -13.5
MIA +13.5
206MIA [ 111 ]-10-23.5+6
4/21BOS [ 114 ]BOS -14.5
MIA +14.5
210MIA [ 94 ]+20+5.5-2
4/14BOS [ 132 ]BOS -10
WAS +10
229.5WAS [ 122 ]+100+24.5

Cavaliers Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/13CLECLE +8.5
BOS -8.5
206BOS---
5/11CLECLE +8
BOS -8
211BOS---
5/9BOS [ 94 ]CLE +13
BOS -13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]+24+37-0.5
5/7BOS [ 120 ]CLE +11.5
BOS -11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]-25-13.5+5
5/5CLE [ 106 ]CLE -3
ORL +3
195ORL [ 94 ]+12+9+5
5/3ORL [ 103 ]CLE +4.5
ORL -4.5
201.5CLE [ 96 ]-7-2.5-2.5
4/30CLE [ 104 ]CLE -4.5
ORL +4.5
200.5ORL [ 103 ]+1-3.5+6.5
4/27ORL [ 112 ]CLE +2.5
ORL -2.5
202CLE [ 89 ]-23-20.5-1
4/25ORL [ 121 ]CLE +3
ORL -3
203.5CLE [ 83 ]-38-35+0.5
4/22CLE [ 96 ]CLE -5.5
ORL +5.5
205.5ORL [ 86 ]+10+4.5-23.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/15BOSCLE +14.5
BOS -14.5
204.5CLE--------
5/13CLECLE +8.5
BOS -8.5
206BOS--------
5/11CLECLE +8
BOS -8
211BOS--------
5/9BOS [ 94 ]CLE +13
BOS -13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]+24+37-0.5109.7129.1102.826.3212
5/7BOS [ 120 ]CLE +11.5
BOS -11.5
210CLE [ 95 ]-25-13.5+5108.5105.1132.7-27.6215
3/5CLE [ 105 ]CLE +8.5
BOS -8.5
217BOS [ 104 ]+1+9.5-8111.8112.7111.61.1209
12/14BOS [ 116 ]CLE +9
BOS -9
227.5CLE [ 107 ]-90-4.5112.7113.9123.5-9.6223
12/12BOS [ 120 ]CLE +11.5
BOS -11.5
225CLE [ 113 ]-7+4.5+8115.6117.3124.6-7.3233
3/6CLE [ 118 ]CLE -8
BOS +8
219.5BOS [ 114 ]+4-4+12.5113.4113.1109.33.8210.1
3/1BOS [ 117 ]CLE +5
BOS -5
219CLE [ 113 ]-4+1+11114.2118.7123-4.2230
11/2CLE [ 114 ]CLE +1.5
BOS -1.5
220.5BOS [ 113 ]+1+2.5+6.5118.7104.4103.50.9205.6


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h6-0-14-0-10-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 5-23-20-02-00-00-00-00-00-0
Cavaliers 1h4-4-13-1-00-0-00-0-01-3-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 5-44-00-00-01-40-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h5-2-03-2-00-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 5-2-03-2-00-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 1h4-5-02-2-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 4-5-03-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h2-4-12-2-10-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 3-4-03-2-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 1h2-6-10-4-00-0-00-0-02-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 4-5-02-2-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h5-2-04-1-00-0-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 3-4-03-2-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 1h3-6-01-3-00-0-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 3-6-02-2-00-0-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h2-5-02-3-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 2-5-02-3-00-0-00-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 1h4-5-01-3-00-0-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Cavaliers 4-4-11-3-00-0-00-0-03-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Cavaliers1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-3-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)3-1-0 (75%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)4-2-0 (66.7%)