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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Nuggets (-5.5) a 37.1-30.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 205.5 around 4.8-5.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Nuggets have a 51% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 5.6% chance of going over the total.


Timberwolves Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Nuggets Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Timberwolves Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10MINMIN -4.5
DEN +4.5
204.5DEN---
5/6DENMIN +5.5
DEN -5.5
205.5MIN---
5/4DEN [ 99 ]MIN +5
DEN -5
208MIN [ 106 ]+7+12-3
4/28PHO [ 116 ]MIN +1
PHO -1
213MIN [ 122 ]+6+7+25
4/26PHO [ 109 ]MIN +5.5
PHO -5.5
208.5MIN [ 126 ]+17+22.5+26.5
4/23MIN [ 105 ]MIN -3
PHO +3
210.5PHO [ 93 ]+12+9-12.5
4/20MIN [ 120 ]MIN -2.5
PHO +2.5
213.5PHO [ 95 ]+25+22.5+1.5
4/14MIN [ 106 ]MIN -2
PHO +2
217PHO [ 125 ]-19-21+14
4/12MIN [ 109 ]MIN -12.5
ATL +12.5
226.5ATL [ 106 ]+3-9.5-11.5
4/10DEN [ 116 ]MIN +6
DEN -6
212.5MIN [ 107 ]-9-3+10.5

Nuggets Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10MINDEN +4.5
MIN -4.5
204.5DEN---
5/6DENDEN -5.5
MIN +5.5
205.5MIN---
5/4DEN [ 99 ]DEN -5
MIN +5
208MIN [ 106 ]-7-12-3
4/29DEN [ 108 ]DEN -7.5
LAL +7.5
217LAL [ 106 ]+2-5.5-3
4/27LAL [ 119 ]DEN -3.5
LAL +3.5
220.5DEN [ 108 ]-11-14.5+6.5
4/25LAL [ 105 ]DEN +1
LAL -1
217.5DEN [ 112 ]+7+8-0.5
4/22DEN [ 101 ]DEN -7
LAL +7
223LAL [ 99 ]+2-5-23
4/20DEN [ 114 ]DEN -6.5
LAL +6.5
227LAL [ 103 ]+11+4.5-10
4/14MEM [ 111 ]DEN -14
MEM +14
216.5DEN [ 126 ]+15+1+20.5
4/12SAS [ 121 ]DEN -11.5
SAS +11.5
223.5DEN [ 120 ]-1-12.5+17.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/19DENDEN -4.5
MIN +4.5
199MIN--------
5/16MINDEN +2.5
MIN -2.5
204.5DEN--------
5/14DENDEN -4.5
MIN +4.5
205.5MIN--------
5/12MINDEN +3
MIN -3
204.5DEN--------
5/10MINDEN +4.5
MIN -4.5
204.5DEN--------
5/6DENDEN -5.5
MIN +5.5
205.5MIN--------
5/4DEN [ 99 ]DEN -5
MIN +5
208MIN [ 106 ]-7-12-3110.8107.2114.8-7.6205
4/10DEN [ 116 ]DEN -6
MIN +6
212.5MIN [ 107 ]+9+3+10.5110.1126.5116.79.8223
3/29DEN [ 98 ]DEN -7
MIN +7
212.5MIN [ 111 ]-13-20-3.5110.8106.1120.2-14.1209
3/19MIN [ 112 ]DEN -7.5
MIN +7.5
214.5DEN [ 115 ]+3-4.5+12.5114.6120.4117.33.1227
11/1MIN [ 110 ]DEN -2.5
MIN +2.5
219.5DEN [ 89 ]-21-23.5-20.5118.490.2111.5-21.3199


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h2-3-01-1-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 5-02-00-00-03-00-00-00-00-0
Nuggets 1h1-5-01-3-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 4-23-10-00-11-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h2-3-01-1-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 5-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1h1-5-01-3-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 2-4-01-3-00-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h3-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 3-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1h1-5-01-3-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1-5-00-4-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h3-2-01-1-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 4-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1h0-6-00-4-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1-5-00-4-00-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h1-4-00-2-00-0-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 2-3-00-2-00-0-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 1h3-3-02-2-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Nuggets 3-3-02-2-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Nuggets0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)