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2/7 | 2/9MIN@MIL CHI@MEM DAL@NYK DEN@LAL SAS@ORL CLE@BKN GSW@IND UTA@PHO DET@POR

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Timberwolves @ Bucks [ -1 / 228 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

February 8, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Timberwolves | 65-33 (66.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (-1) a 46.6-31.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 228 around 3.8-3.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 61.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 4.3% chance of going over the total.

Timberwolves Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/12	LAC	MIN +4.5 LAC -4.5	223.5	MIN	-	-	-
2/8	MIL	MIN +1 MIL -1	228	MIN	-	-	-
2/6	CHI [ 129 ]	MIN -5.5 CHI +5.5	216	MIN [ 123 ]	-6	-11.5	+36
2/4	MIN [ 111 ]	MIN -8 HOU +8	222	HOU [ 90 ]	+21	+13	-21
2/2	MIN [ 106 ]	MIN -8 ORL +8	211.5	ORL [ 108 ]	-2	-10	+2.5
1/31	MIN [ 121 ]	MIN -14 DAL +14	221.5	DAL [ 87 ]	+34	+20	-13.5
1/29	OKC [ 101 ]	MIN +2.5 OKC -2.5	224.5	MIN [ 107 ]	+6	+8.5	-16.5
1/27	SAS [ 113 ]	MIN -11 SAS +11	227	MIN [ 112 ]	-1	-12	-2
1/25	BKN [ 94 ]	MIN -3.5 BKN +3.5	216.5	MIN [ 96 ]	+2	-1.5	-26.5
1/24	WAS [ 107 ]	MIN -11 WAS +11	229.5	MIN [ 118 ]	+11	0	-4.5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/9	MIL	MIL -16.5 CHA +16.5	227.5	CHA	-	-	-
2/8	MIL	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN	-	-	-
2/6	PHO [ 114 ]	MIL +3.5 PHO -3.5	243	MIL [ 106 ]	-8	-4.5	-23
2/4	UTA [ 123 ]	MIL +3 UTA -3	247	MIL [ 108 ]	-15	-12	-16
2/3	DAL [ 117 ]	MIL -4.5 DAL +4.5	246	MIL [ 129 ]	+12	+7.5	0
1/31	POR [ 119 ]	MIL -9.5 POR +9.5	238	MIL [ 116 ]	-3	-12.5	-3
1/29	DEN [ 113 ]	MIL +4 DEN -4	238.5	MIL [ 107 ]	-6	-2	-18.5
1/27	MIL [ 141 ]	MIL -5 NOP +5	241	NOP [ 117 ]	+24	+19	+17
1/26	MIL [ 100 ]	MIL -5.5 CLE +5.5	238	CLE [ 112 ]	-12	-17.5	-26
1/24	MIL [ 126 ]	MIL -6.5 CLE +6.5	236.5	CLE [ 116 ]	+10	+3.5	+5.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
2/23	MIN	MIL +4 MIN -4	225.5	MIL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/8	MIL	MIL -1 MIN +1	228	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/30	MIL [ 123 ]	MIL -7.5 MIN +7.5	229.5	MIN [ 114 ]	+9	+1.5	+7.5	127.1	116.1	107.6	8.5	237
11/4	MIN [ 102 ]	MIL -2 MIN +2	225	MIL [ 115 ]	+13	+11	-8	123.6	111.6	99	12.6	217

Filters

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Timberwolves (last 51 games)		Bucks (last 51 games)
0.68 (4)	Win Percentage	0.6 (9)
48.98 (17)	ATS Win%	36 (29)
46 (25)	OU%	58 (4)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
115.59 (18)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (10)
108.99 (1)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (17)
97.12 (26)	Pace	99.89 (9)
1.88 (22)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (9)

Four Factors

Timberwolves (last 51 games)		Bucks (last 51 games)
55.94 (9)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
51.54 (1)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
26.97 (8)	FT Rate	27 (7)
25.22 (13)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (5)
23.16 (21)	OReb%	21.83 (27)
23.1 (8)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (6)
14.5 (23)	TO Rate	12.85 (8)
14.55 (7)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (28)

Scoring

Timberwolves (last 51 games)		Bucks (last 51 games)
112.98 (23)	PPG	118.98 (5)
106.52 (1)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (17)
16.99 (12)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
16.3 (14)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (7)
13.51 (18)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (23)
12.71 (5)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
12.39 (28)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (25)
13.24 (4)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (10)

Inside the Arc

Timberwolves (last 51 games)		Bucks (last 51 games)
44.11 (19)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (28)
43.2 (10)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (20)
57.56 (18)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
53.39 (1)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (14)
8.24 (26)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (5)
11.29 (29)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.39 (23)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.4 (6)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (17)

Three Point Shooting

Timberwolves (last 51 games)		Bucks (last 51 games)
9.59 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (6)
8.11 (9)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
40.84 (10)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (8)
38.65 (14)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (7)
22.9 (28)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (9)
24.01 (4)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (22)
38.07 (3)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (16)
34.59 (5)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (13)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	31-20-0	16-6-0	1-1-0	11-7-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	35-16	17-5	2-0	13-5	3-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	32-18-1	20-6-0	0-0-0	10-10-0	2-2-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-18	21-5	0-0	12-8	0-5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	22-28-1	8-14-0	1-1-0	9-8-1	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	24-26-1	11-11-0	2-0-0	7-10-1	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	22-24-5	16-7-3	0-0-0	3-15-2	3-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	18-32-1	9-16-1	0-0-0	8-12-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	20-30-1	8-14-0	0-2-0	9-8-1	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	23-27-1	8-13-1	1-1-0	8-10-0	6-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	21-30-0	11-15-0	0-0-0	9-11-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	29-21-1	17-9-0	0-0-0	11-8-1	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	22-29-0	8-14-0	1-1-0	10-8-0	3-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	25-26-0	8-14-0	2-0-0	11-7-0	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	20-31-0	13-13-0	0-0-0	7-13-0	0-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	27-24-0	16-10-0	0-0-0	10-10-0	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	26-25-0	11-11-0	0-2-0	11-7-0	4-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	21-30-0	7-15-0	0-2-0	9-9-0	5-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	24-26-1	10-15-1	0-0-0	12-8-0	2-3-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	30-19-2	17-9-0	0-0-0	12-6-2	1-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-3-0 (25%)	2-2-0 (50%)	10-11-0 (47.6%)	3-7-1 (30%)	2-9-0 (18.2%)
Timberwolves	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	4-4-0 (50%)	4-4-0 (50%)	6-7-1 (46.2%)	6-4-0 (60%)	3-6-1 (33.3%)