Twins @ Tigers [ Tigers -142 / 9 ]

Twins | 39-42 (48.1%) Bailey Ober (R) | 4-5 | WHIP: 1.37 | ERA: 4.90
Tigers | 51-32 (61.4%) Casey Mize (R) | 7-2 | WHIP: 1.24 | ERA: 2.88

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Twins
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Tigers
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Twins Situational Notes

Tigers Situational Notes
Baller Systems
Medium favorite with in-series revenge

Twins Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29DET [ 0 ]Tarik Skubal (L)MIN -
DET -		-MIN [ 0 ]Chris Paddack (R)
6/28DET [ 0 ]Casey Mize (R)MIN +120
DET -142		9MIN [ 0 ]Bailey Ober (R)
6/27DET [ 1 ]Sawyer Gipson-Long (R)MIN +120
DET -142		8.5MIN [ 4 ]David Festa (R)
6/26MIN [ 10 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN -134
SEA +116		8.5SEA [ 1 ]Emerson Hancock (R)
6/25MIN [ 2 ]Joe Ryan (R)MIN -120
SEA +102		7.5SEA [ 0 ]George Kirby (R)
6/24MIN [ 5 ]Chris Paddack (R)MIN -110
SEA -108		8.5SEA [ 6 ]Luis Castillo (R)
6/23MIN [ 2 ]Bailey Ober (R)MIN +112
SEA -132		8.5SEA [ 11 ]Bryan Woo (R)
6/22MIN [ 8 ]Danny Coulombe (L)MIN -142
MIL +120		9.5MIL [ 9 ]Quinn Priester (R)
6/21MIN [ 0 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN -134
MIL +114		10MIL [ 9 ]Jose Quintana (L)
6/20MIN [ 6 ]Joe Ryan (R)MIN -158
MIL +134		7.5MIL [ 17 ]Jacob Misiorowski (R)
Tigers Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29DET [ 0 ]Tarik Skubal (L)DET -
MIN -		-MIN [ 0 ]Chris Paddack (R)
6/28DET [ 0 ]Casey Mize (R)DET -142
MIN +120		9MIN [ 0 ]Bailey Ober (R)
6/27DET [ 1 ]Sawyer Gipson-Long (R)DET -142
MIN +120		8.5MIN [ 4 ]David Festa (R)
6/26DET [ 8 ]Dietrich Enns (L)DET -162
ATH +130		9ATH [ 0 ]Jeffrey Springs (L)
6/25DET [ 0 ]Jack Flaherty (R)DET -172
ATH +154		8.5ATH [ 3 ]Jacob Lopez (L)
6/24DET [ 11 ]Tarik Skubal (L)DET -290
ATH +265		7.5ATH [ 4 ]Luis Severino (R)
6/22TBR [ 3 ]Zack Littell (R)DET -104
TBR -108		8.5DET [ 9 ]Casey Mize (R)
6/21TBR [ 8 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)DET +116
TBR -142		9DET [ 3 ]Brant Hurter (R)
6/20TBR [ 14 ]Shane Baz (R)DET -106
TBR -110		8.5DET [ 8 ]Jack Flaherty (R)
6/19DET [ 9 ]Tarik Skubal (L)DET -
PIT +280		-PIT [ 2 ]Andrew Heaney (R)

Bailey Ober Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/23MIN [ 2 ]SEA [ 11 ]1128.57707377Bryan Woo (R)
6/18CIN [ 4 ]MIN [ 2 ]-10290000000Nick Lodolo (L)
6/12MIN [ 3 ]TEX [ 16 ]-15884.67366477Patrick Corbin (L)
6/6MIN [ 4 ]TOR [ 6 ]-1328.57415255Paxton Schultz (R)
5/31SEA [ 5 ]MIN [ 4 ]-10874416122Bryce Miller (R)
4.533.61.64.824.24.2
Casey Mize Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22TBR [ 3 ]DET [ 9 ]-1048.55506111Zack Littell (R)
6/17DET [ 7 ]PIT [ 3 ]-1908.56405023Bailey Falter (L)
6/11BAL [ 10 ]DET [ 1 ]-10495.33728122Zach Eflin (R)
6/5CHW [ 3 ]DET [ 2 ]-20584.67346022Sean Burke (R)
5/30KCR [ 5 ]DET [ 7 ]-1188.53.33428133Seth Lugo (R)
4.874.61.66.60.622.2
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Bailey Ober F58-7-2 (53.3%)4-3-0 (57.1%)0-2-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)2-1-2 (66.7%)
Bailey Ober7-10 (41.2%)3-4 (42.9%)0-2 (0%)0-1 (0%)3-2 (60%)
Casey Mize F56-4-2 (60%)2-0-1 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)
Casey Mize9-3 (75%)3-0 (100%)3-1 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-2 (33.3%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Bailey Ober F510-6-0 (62.5%)3-4-0 (42.9%)2-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)
Bailey Ober9-8-0 (52.9%)2-5-0 (28.6%)2-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)
Casey Mize F54-7-0 (36.4%)0-2-0 (0%)3-1-0 (75%)1-0-0 (100%)0-3-0 (0%)
Casey Mize6-6-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-1-0 (75%)0-1-0 (0%)1-2-0 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Twins vs. RHP F529-25-14 (53.7%)12-11-4 (52.2%)7-7-3 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)6-6-6 (50%)
Twins vs. RHP35-33 (51.5%)15-12 (55.6%)9-8 (52.9%)2-1 (66.7%)8-10 (44.4%)
Tigers vs. RHP F531-23-6 (57.4%)14-8-2 (63.6%)6-6-2 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)8-7-1 (53.3%)
Tigers vs. RHP35-25 (58.3%)16-8 (66.7%)8-6 (57.1%)3-2 (60%)7-9 (43.8%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Twins vs. RHP F533-30-3 (52.4%)13-11-2 (54.2%)8-9-0 (47.1%)1-2-0 (33.3%)8-8-1 (50%)
Twins vs. RHP31-33-4 (48.4%)14-12-1 (53.8%)7-9-1 (43.8%)1-2-0 (33.3%)6-10-2 (37.5%)
Tigers vs. RHP F530-28-1 (51.7%)13-9-1 (59.1%)7-7-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)8-8-0 (50%)
Tigers vs. RHP33-25-2 (56.9%)10-12-2 (45.5%)9-5-0 (64.3%)2-3-0 (40%)11-5-0 (68.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Bailey Ober7-8 (46.7%)3-4 (42.9%)0-2 (0%)0-1 (0%)4-1 (80%)
Twins42-38 (52.5%)15-19 (44.1%)9-10 (47.4%)2-1 (66.7%)16-8 (66.7%)
Casey Mize7-4 (63.6%)2-1 (66.7%)3-1 (75%)1-0 (100%)1-2 (33.3%)
Tigers43-40 (51.8%)17-16 (51.5%)10-11 (47.6%)6-3 (66.7%)10-10 (50%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Bailey Ober11-6 (64.7%)5-2 (71.4%)2-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)3-2 (60%)
Twins44-39 (53%)17-17 (50%)14-5 (73.7%)1-2 (33.3%)11-13 (45.8%)
Casey Mize4-8 (33.3%)0-3 (0%)2-2 (50%)0-1 (0%)2-1 (66.7%)
Tigers37-47 (44%)12-21 (36.4%)9-12 (42.9%)5-4 (55.6%)11-9 (55%)


Batting Matchup
TwinsTigers
82TG83
4.3R/G5
94HR100
0.242AVG0.253
39SB30
14CS7
TwinsTigers
0.156ISO0.168
0.286BABIP0.303
0.314OBP0.323
0.398SLG0.421
0.314wOBA0.325
102wRC+110
TwinsTigers
8BB%8.4
21.9K%23
0.37BB/K0.37
8.6Barrel%10.1
41.9HardHit%39.3
9.1WAR14.9

Pitching Matchup
Bailey OberCasey Mize
16G13
16GS13
86.1IP72
5.4IP/G5.5
4W7
5L2
75.4LOB%85.3
Bailey OberCasey Mize
7.19K/98
2.19BB/92.25
12.7K/BB%15.3
29.2GB%40.8
51.2FB%41.7
1.77HR/91.25
11.8HR/FB%11
Bailey OberCasey Mize
0.301BABIP0.292
4.9ERA2.88
4.2xERA3.29
4.91FIP3.86
4.8xFIP3.91
1.37WHIP1.24
4.54SIERA3.92
0.7WAR1

Bullpen Matchup
TwinsTigers
3.43BPU/G3.11
3.6IP/G3.9
14W19
20L10
16SV23
13BS9
68.6LOB%71.2
TwinsTigers
9.42K/97.55
3.03BB/92.93
16.5K/BB%12.3
47.5GB%47.7
33.9FB%34.6
0.86HR/91
9.9HR/FB%11
TwinsTigers
0.317BABIP0.274
4.31ERA3.68
3.4FIP4.02
3.57xFIP4.05
1.31WHIP1.22
3.3SIERA3.78
4.3WAR1