Padres @ Reds [ Reds -152 / 9.5 ]

Padres | 43-37 (53.8%) Randy Vasquez (R) | 3-4 | WHIP: 1.33 | ERA: 3.60
Reds | 43-39 (52.4%) Andrew Abbott (L) | 7-1 | WHIP: 0.97 | ERA: 1.79

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Padres
Starting Pitcher:
0/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-3
Est. fair odds: +142 to +162
Implied win prob: 38.17% to 41.32%
Reds
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:3
Est. fair odds: -142 to -162
Implied win prob: 58.68% to 61.83%
Padres Situational Notes

Reds Situational Notes
Baller Systems
Back home favorite (with a worse record) in the second game of a series coming off a win in game one

Padres Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29CIN [ 0 ]Nick Lodolo (L)SDP -
CIN -		-SDP [ 0 ]Stephen Kolek (R)
6/28CIN [ 0 ]Andrew Abbott (L)SDP +128
CIN -152		9.5SDP [ 0 ]Randy Vasquez (R)
6/27CIN [ 8 ]Nick Martinez (R)SDP -132
CIN +112		9SDP [ 1 ]Dylan Cease (R)
6/25SDP [ 1 ]Nick Pivetta (R)SDP -136
WSN +116		7WSN [ 0 ]MacKenzie Gore (L)
6/24SDP [ 4 ]Ryan Bergert (R)SDP -168
WSN +142		8.5WSN [ 3 ]Trevor Williams (R)
6/23SDP [ 6 ]Stephen Kolek (R)SDP -178
WSN +150		8.5WSN [ 10 ]Mitchell Parker (L)
6/22SDP [ 3 ]Randy Vasquez (R)SDP -122
KCR +104		8.5KCR [ 2 ]Seth Lugo (R)
6/21SDP [ 5 ]Dylan Cease (R)SDP -152
KCR +128		7.5KCR [ 1 ]Noah Cameron (L)
6/20SDP [ 5 ]Nick Pivetta (R)SDP -166
KCR +140		7.5KCR [ 6 ]Michael Lorenzen (R)
6/19LAD [ 3 ]Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)SDP +220
LAD -270		8.5SDP [ 5 ]Ryan Bergert (R)
Reds Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29CIN [ 0 ]Nick Lodolo (L)CIN -
SDP -		-SDP [ 0 ]Stephen Kolek (R)
6/28CIN [ 0 ]Andrew Abbott (L)CIN -152
SDP +128		9.5SDP [ 0 ]Randy Vasquez (R)
6/27CIN [ 8 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN +112
SDP -132		9SDP [ 1 ]Dylan Cease (R)
6/25CIN [ 1 ]Brady Singer (R)CIN +180
NYY -210		9.5NYY [ 7 ]Max Fried (L)
6/24CIN [ 5 ]Chase Burns (R)CIN +140
NYY -168		9.5NYY [ 4 ]Carlos Rodon (L)
6/23CIN [ 6 ]Nick Lodolo (L)CIN +106
NYY -126		10NYY [ 1 ]Allan Winans (R)
6/22STL [ 1 ]Miles Mikolas (R)CIN -112
STL -104		9.5CIN [ 4 ]Andrew Abbott (L)
6/21STL [ 6 ]Sonny Gray (R)CIN +168
STL -200		9CIN [ 5 ]Brent Suter (L)
6/20STL [ 6 ]Andre Pallante (R)CIN +110
STL -130		8.5CIN [ 1 ]Brady Singer (R)
6/19CIN [ 5 ]Nick Martinez (R)CIN -112
MIN -106		9MIN [ 12 ]Chris Paddack (R)

Randy Vasquez Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22SDP [ 3 ]KCR [ 2 ]-1228.57225122Seth Lugo (R)
6/17LAD [ 8 ]SDP [ 6 ]180105204233Jack Dreyer (R)
6/11SDP [ 2 ]LAD [ 5 ]1309.54.67412111Ben Casparius (R)
6/6MIL [ 0 ]SDP [ 2 ]1268.54.67242000Chad Patrick (R)
6/1SDP [ 6 ]PIT [ 4 ]-1468.53.33336244Andrew Heaney (L)
4.932.623.81.222
Andrew Abbott Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22STL [ 1 ]CIN [ 4 ]-1129.57303011Miles Mikolas (R)
6/17CIN [ 6 ]MIN [ 5 ]-11695.67508215David Festa (R)
6/10CLE [ 0 ]CIN [ 1 ]-10089513000Slade Cecconi (R)
6/4CIN [ 1 ]MIL [ 9 ]-12096617255DL Hall (L)
5/30CHC [ 2 ]CIN [ 6 ]13697811000Colin Rea (R)
6.935.40.64.40.81.42.2
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Randy Vasquez F55-7-4 (41.7%)1-2-1 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)1-1-2 (50%)2-4-1 (33.3%)
Randy Vasquez9-7 (56.3%)4-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)1-3 (25%)3-4 (42.9%)
Andrew Abbott F59-2-2 (81.8%)3-2-0 (60%)2-0-1 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-1 (100%)
Andrew Abbott10-3 (76.9%)3-2 (60%)3-0 (100%)2-0 (100%)2-1 (66.7%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Randy Vasquez F55-9-0 (35.7%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Randy Vasquez5-11-0 (31.3%)1-3-0 (25%)1-0-0 (100%)0-4-0 (0%)3-4-0 (42.9%)
Andrew Abbott F54-7-0 (36.4%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)
Andrew Abbott6-7-0 (46.2%)2-3-0 (40%)1-2-0 (33.3%)2-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Padres vs. LHP F512-11-2 (52.2%)6-4-0 (60%)1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)2-5-2 (28.6%)
Padres vs. LHP14-11 (56%)7-3 (70%)0-2 (0%)1-1 (50%)4-5 (44.4%)
Reds vs. RHP F529-19-8 (60.4%)6-7-3 (46.2%)5-1-2 (83.3%)8-2-2 (80%)10-9-1 (52.6%)
Reds vs. RHP32-24 (57.1%)8-8 (50%)6-2 (75%)8-4 (66.7%)10-10 (50%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Padres vs. LHP F510-14-0 (41.7%)4-5-0 (44.4%)2-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)3-6-0 (33.3%)
Padres vs. LHP7-18-0 (28%)3-7-0 (30%)2-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)1-8-0 (11.1%)
Reds vs. RHP F526-25-1 (51%)7-6-1 (53.8%)3-5-0 (37.5%)6-5-0 (54.5%)10-9-0 (52.6%)
Reds vs. RHP23-32-1 (41.8%)5-11-0 (31.3%)1-7-0 (12.5%)5-6-1 (45.5%)12-8-0 (60%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Randy Vasquez8-8 (50%)2-2 (50%)1-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)3-4 (42.9%)
Padres42-37 (53.2%)15-17 (46.9%)3-7 (30%)5-2 (71.4%)19-11 (63.3%)
Andrew Abbott8-5 (61.5%)2-3 (40%)1-2 (33.3%)2-0 (100%)3-0 (100%)
Reds44-37 (54.3%)9-12 (42.9%)5-8 (38.5%)12-7 (63.2%)18-10 (64.3%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Randy Vasquez7-9 (43.8%)3-1 (75%)1-0 (100%)0-4 (0%)3-4 (42.9%)
Padres36-46 (43.9%)14-18 (43.8%)7-3 (70%)3-4 (42.9%)10-20 (33.3%)
Andrew Abbott4-9 (30.8%)0-5 (0%)2-1 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)1-2 (33.3%)
Reds40-42 (48.8%)12-9 (57.1%)8-5 (61.5%)10-9 (52.6%)9-19 (32.1%)


Batting Matchup
PadresReds
81TG82
4.2R/G4.6
69HR91
0.246AVG0.247
56SB65
16CS23
PadresReds
0.129ISO0.156
0.286BABIP0.3
0.314OBP0.32
0.376SLG0.403
0.305wOBA0.318
97wRC+96
PadresReds
8.5BB%9
18.9K%23.3
0.45BB/K0.39
6.7Barrel%7.2
36.5HardHit%37.8
8.2WAR7.6

Pitching Matchup
Randy VasquezAndrew Abbott
16G13
16GS13
80IP75.1
5IP/G5.8
3W7
4L1
83LOB%86
Randy VasquezAndrew Abbott
5.06K/98.6
4.16BB/92.39
2.3K/BB%17.6
40.2GB%30.2
45.3FB%51.5
1.35HR/90.96
10.4HR/FB%7.7
Randy VasquezAndrew Abbott
0.235BABIP0.231
3.6ERA1.79
5.72xERA2.95
5.52FIP3.39
5.68xFIP4.03
1.33WHIP0.97
5.59SIERA3.85
-0.1WAR1.9

Bullpen Matchup
PadresReds
3.51BPU/G3.35
3.6IP/G3.5
21W14
16L12
27SV21
9BS9
73LOB%70.6
PadresReds
9.39K/98.19
3.5BB/93.91
15.5K/BB%11.1
41.3GB%40.9
38.9FB%40.1
0.84HR/91.13
8.9HR/FB%11
PadresReds
0.275BABIP0.254
3.38ERA3.97
3.52FIP4.33
3.84xFIP4.37
1.21WHIP1.26
3.51SIERA4.04
3.6WAR1.6