Blue Jays @ Red Sox [ Red Sox +106 / 9 ]

Blue Jays | 44-37 (54.3%) Chris Bassitt (R) | 7-3 | WHIP: 1.26 | ERA: 3.61
Red Sox | 40-43 (48.2%) Lucas Giolito (R) | 3-1 | WHIP: 1.37 | ERA: 4.53

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Red Sox
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Blue Jays Situational Notes

Red Sox Situational Notes

Blue Jays Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29BOS [ 0 ]Walker Buehler (R)TOR -
BOS -		-TOR [ 0 ]Eric Lauer (L)
6/28BOS [ 0 ]Lucas Giolito (R)TOR -124
BOS +106		9TOR [ 0 ]Chris Bassitt (R)
6/27BOS [ 0 ]Brayan Bello (R)TOR +108
BOS -126		8.5TOR [ 9 ]Jose Berrios (R)
6/26CLE [ 0 ]Tanner Bibee (R)TOR +102
CLE -136		8TOR [ 6 ]Kevin Gausman (R)
6/25CLE [ 5 ]Gavin Williams (R)TOR -104
CLE -120		8.5TOR [ 4 ]Max Scherzer (R)
6/24CLE [ 6 ]Logan Allen (L)TOR -118
CLE +112		8.5TOR [ 10 ]Eric Lauer (L)
6/22TOR [ 2 ]Chris Bassitt (R)TOR -215
CHW +168		9CHW [ 4 ]Adrian Houser (R)
6/21TOR [ 7 ]Jose Berrios (R)TOR -215
CHW +168		8.5CHW [ 1 ]Aaron Civale (R)
6/20TOR [ 1 ]Spencer Turnbull (R)TOR -188
CHW +168		9CHW [ 7 ]Grant Taylor (R)
6/19TOR [ 5 ]Kevin Gausman (R)TOR -142
ARI +140		8.5ARI [ 9 ]Ryne Nelson (R)
Red Sox Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29BOS [ 0 ]Walker Buehler (R)BOS -
TOR -		-TOR [ 0 ]Eric Lauer (L)
6/28BOS [ 0 ]Lucas Giolito (R)BOS +106
TOR -124		9TOR [ 0 ]Chris Bassitt (R)
6/27BOS [ 0 ]Brayan Bello (R)BOS -126
TOR +108		8.5TOR [ 9 ]Jose Berrios (R)
6/25LAA [ 5 ]Yusei Kikuchi (L)BOS +110
LAA -130		8.5BOS [ 2 ]Richard Fitts (R)
6/24LAA [ 3 ]Tyler Anderson (L)BOS -190
LAA +144		8BOS [ 2 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
6/23LAA [ 9 ]Jack Kochanowicz (R)BOS -116
LAA -102		9BOS [ 5 ]Walker Buehler (R)
6/22SFG [ 9 ]Robbie Ray (L)BOS +138
SFG -164		7BOS [ 5 ]Lucas Giolito (R)
6/21SFG [ 3 ]Landen Roupp (R)BOS +104
SFG -122		7.5BOS [ 2 ]Brayan Bello (R)
6/20SFG [ 5 ]Hayden Birdsong (R)BOS +112
SFG -132		7.5BOS [ 7 ]Hunter Dobbins (R)
6/18SEA [ 1 ]Luis Castillo (R)BOS -124
SEA +105		6.5BOS [ 3 ]Garrett Crochet (L)

Chris Bassitt Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22TOR [ 2 ]CHW [ 4 ]-21596713011Adrian Houser (R)
6/17TOR [ 5 ]ARI [ 4 ]-1308.56516033Brandon Pfaadt (R)
6/10STL [ 9 ]TOR [ 10 ]10487326144Miles Mikolas (R)
6/5TOR [ 9 ]PHI [ 1 ]-10087625011Jesus Luzardo (L)
5/30TOR [ 11 ]ATH [ 7 ]-1648.55627255Jeffrey Springs (L)
6.25.41.65.40.62.82.8
Lucas Giolito Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22SFG [ 9 ]BOS [ 5 ]13876524224Robbie Ray (L)
6/16SEA [ 0 ]BOS [ 2 ]150761013000Logan Gilbert (R)
6/10BOS [ 3 ]TBR [ 1 ]-1029.56433001Ryan Pepiot (R)
6/4BOS [ 11 ]LAA [ 9 ]-126101.67118177Jose Soriano (R)
5/30ATL [ 1 ]BOS [ 5 ]13694.67325011Grant Holmes (R)
4.874.61.84.60.622.6
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Bassitt F58-5-3 (61.5%)3-2-1 (60%)0-2-0 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)2-1-2 (66.7%)
Chris Bassitt10-6 (62.5%)5-1 (83.3%)1-1 (50%)2-0 (100%)1-4 (20%)
Lucas Giolito F54-3-3 (57.1%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)2-0-2 (100%)
Lucas Giolito7-3 (70%)3-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)0-1 (0%)3-1 (75%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Bassitt F56-8-1 (42.9%)2-3-0 (40%)1-0-1 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)
Chris Bassitt6-10-0 (37.5%)2-4-0 (33.3%)1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)
Lucas Giolito F54-4-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)
Lucas Giolito5-5-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)1-3-0 (25%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Blue Jays vs. RHP F524-29-9 (45.3%)9-9-2 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)3-7-1 (30%)11-11-6 (50%)
Blue Jays vs. RHP33-29 (53.2%)11-9 (55%)1-1 (50%)6-5 (54.5%)14-14 (50%)
Red Sox vs. RHP F525-24-12 (51%)10-9-6 (52.6%)7-5-3 (58.3%)2-2-0 (50%)6-7-3 (46.2%)
Red Sox vs. RHP30-31 (49.2%)14-11 (56%)7-8 (46.7%)2-2 (50%)7-9 (43.8%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Blue Jays vs. RHP F524-32-4 (42.9%)8-11-0 (42.1%)1-0-1 (100%)5-5-1 (50%)10-15-2 (40%)
Blue Jays vs. RHP33-28-1 (54.1%)10-10-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)8-3-0 (72.7%)14-13-1 (51.9%)
Red Sox vs. RHP F525-29-2 (46.3%)10-13-1 (43.5%)5-7-1 (41.7%)2-2-0 (50%)8-6-0 (57.1%)
Red Sox vs. RHP26-34-1 (43.3%)11-13-1 (45.8%)6-9-0 (40%)1-3-0 (25%)7-9-0 (43.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Bassitt10-5 (66.7%)4-2 (66.7%)1-1 (50%)2-0 (100%)3-2 (60%)
Blue Jays47-31 (60.3%)13-12 (52%)2-3 (40%)9-5 (64.3%)23-11 (67.6%)
Lucas Giolito5-4 (55.6%)2-1 (66.7%)0-1 (0%)0-1 (0%)3-1 (75%)
Red Sox38-41 (48.1%)11-20 (35.5%)8-11 (42.1%)4-2 (66.7%)15-8 (65.2%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Bassitt8-8 (50%)2-4 (33.3%)2-0 (100%)0-2 (0%)3-2 (60%)
Blue Jays44-37 (54.3%)13-12 (52%)4-1 (80%)7-7 (50%)18-16 (52.9%)
Lucas Giolito8-2 (80%)3-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)3-1 (75%)
Red Sox46-36 (56.1%)17-14 (54.8%)8-11 (42.1%)5-1 (83.3%)16-7 (69.6%)


Batting Matchup
Blue JaysRed Sox
81TG83
4.4R/G4.6
81HR98
0.258AVG0.246
43SB67
14CS17
Blue JaysRed Sox
0.141ISO0.164
0.292BABIP0.302
0.328OBP0.319
0.399SLG0.41
0.319wOBA0.319
106wRC+99
Blue JaysRed Sox
8.6BB%8.7
17.6K%24.3
0.49BB/K0.36
8.5Barrel%10.1
41.7HardHit%45.4
15.2WAR10.8

Pitching Matchup
Chris BassittLucas Giolito
16G10
16GS10
92.1IP51.2
5.8IP/G5.1
7W3
3L1
77.8LOB%70.2
Chris BassittLucas Giolito
8.77K/98.01
2.05BB/92.96
17.6K/BB%13.4
47.3GB%38.8
33.8FB%40.1
0.97HR/91.39
10.8HR/FB%13.1
Chris BassittLucas Giolito
0.32BABIP0.315
3.61ERA4.53
3.53xERA5.54
3.42FIP4.3
3.49xFIP4.02
1.26WHIP1.37
3.53SIERA4.14
1.8WAR0.5

Bullpen Matchup
Blue JaysRed Sox
3.38BPU/G3.3
3.8IP/G3.7
21W18
13L20
23SV22
13BS17
72.3LOB%68.2
Blue JaysRed Sox
9.94K/98.68
3.55BB/93.91
17.2K/BB%12.4
39.3GB%43
41.4FB%36.4
1.03HR/90.65
10.7HR/FB%7.1
Blue JaysRed Sox
0.268BABIP0.289
3.61ERA3.65
3.73FIP3.52
3.81xFIP4.08
1.17WHIP1.3
3.35SIERA3.85
2WAR3.8