Mets @ Pirates [ Pirates +120 / 9.5 ]

Mets | 48-35 (57.8%) Paul Blackburn (R) | 0-2 | WHIP: 1.75 | ERA: 6.62
Pirates | 33-50 (39.8%) Bailey Falter (L) | 6-3 | WHIP: 1.18 | ERA: 3.59

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Mets
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:3
Est. fair odds: -142 to -162
Implied win prob: 58.68% to 61.83%
Pirates
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:-3
Est. fair odds: +142 to +162
Implied win prob: 38.17% to 41.32%
Mets Situational Notes

Pirates Situational Notes

Mets Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29PIT [ 0 ]Mike Burrows (R)NYM -
PIT -		-NYM [ 0 ]Frankie Montas (R)
6/28PIT [ 0 ]Bailey Falter (L)NYM -142
PIT +120		9.5NYM [ 0 ]Paul Blackburn (R)
6/27PIT [ 9 ]Mitch Keller (R)NYM -144
PIT +122		8NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
6/26NYM [ 4 ]Griffin Canning (R)NYM -112
ATL -100		8.5ATL [ 0 ]Grant Holmes (R)
6/25NYM [ 7 ]Clay Holmes (R)NYM -146
ATL +118		9ATL [ 3 ]Didier Fuentes (R)
6/24NYM [ 4 ]Frankie Montas (R)NYM +122
ATL -136		9ATL [ 7 ]Spencer Strider (R)
6/23NYM [ 2 ]Paul Blackburn (R)NYM +112
ATL -148		8.5ATL [ 3 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
6/22PHI [ 7 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)NYM -108
PHI -118		9.5NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
6/21PHI [ 4 ]Mick Abel (R)NYM -100
PHI -100		9.5NYM [ 11 ]Griffin Canning (R)
6/20PHI [ 10 ]Zack Wheeler (R)NYM +164
PHI -196		8.5NYM [ 2 ]Blade Tidwell (R)
Pirates Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29PIT [ 0 ]Mike Burrows (R)PIT -
NYM -		-NYM [ 0 ]Frankie Montas (R)
6/28PIT [ 0 ]Bailey Falter (L)PIT +120
NYM -142		9.5NYM [ 0 ]Paul Blackburn (R)
6/27PIT [ 9 ]Mitch Keller (R)PIT +122
NYM -144		8NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
6/25MIL [ 4 ]Jacob Misiorowski (R)PIT -108
MIL -108		6.5PIT [ 2 ]Paul Skenes (R)
6/24MIL [ 9 ]Freddy Peralta (R)PIT +168
MIL -210		7.5PIT [ 3 ]Andrew Heaney (L)
6/23MIL [ 4 ]Chad Patrick (R)PIT +138
MIL -164		8.5PIT [ 5 ]Braxton Ashcraft (R)
6/22PIT [ 8 ]Bailey Falter (L)PIT -108
TEX -102		9TEX [ 3 ]Jack Leiter (R)
6/21PIT [ 2 ]Mitch Keller (R)PIT -108
TEX -106		8.5TEX [ 3 ]Kumar Rocker (R)
6/20PIT [ 2 ]Mike Burrows (R)PIT +160
TEX -190		7.5TEX [ 6 ]Jacob deGrom (R)
6/19DET [ 4 ]Tyler Holton (L)PIT -126
DET +108		7PIT [ 8 ]Paul Skenes (L)

Paul Blackburn Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/23NYM [ 2 ]ATL [ 3 ]1128.54.67536133Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
6/18ATL [ 5 ]NYM [ 0 ]1508.53.67224134Chris Sale (L)
6/2LAD [ 3 ]NYM [ 4 ]1329.55313000Dustin May (R)
8/23SDP [ 7 ]NYM [ 0 ]1147.52.331010255Joe Musgrove (R)
8/18NYM [ 2 ]MIA [ 3 ]-1988.56414011Valente Bellozo (R)
4.3331.45.40.82.42.6
Bailey Falter Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22PIT [ 8 ]TEX [ 3 ]-10895.33156033Jack Leiter (R)
6/17DET [ 7 ]PIT [ 3 ]1608.55415233Casey Mize (R)
6/11PIT [ 5 ]MIA [ 2 ]-1548.55.33315111Cal Quantrill (R)
6/6PIT [ 5 ]PHI [ 4 ]11893.67225044Joe Ross (R)
5/31SDP [ 0 ]PIT [ 5 ]1987.56.33112000Dylan Cease (R)
5.132.224.60.62.22.2
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Paul Blackburn F51-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)
Paul Blackburn1-2 (33.3%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)1-1 (50%)
Bailey Falter F57-4-4 (63.6%)4-0-0 (100%)0-0-1 (-)0-2-2 (0%)3-2-1 (60%)
Bailey Falter8-7 (53.3%)3-1 (75%)0-1 (0%)2-2 (50%)3-3 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Paul Blackburn F50-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)
Paul Blackburn0-3-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)
Bailey Falter F56-6-2 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)0-1-0 (0%)2-1-1 (66.7%)3-1-1 (75%)
Bailey Falter8-6-1 (57.1%)1-3-0 (25%)1-0-0 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)3-2-1 (60%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mets vs. LHP F59-8-2 (52.9%)5-3-0 (62.5%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)1-4-2 (20%)
Mets vs. LHP10-9 (52.6%)6-2 (75%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)1-6 (14.3%)
Pirates vs. RHP F523-28-12 (45.1%)7-5-3 (58.3%)3-1-1 (75%)4-7-3 (36.4%)9-13-5 (40.9%)
Pirates vs. RHP25-38 (39.7%)7-8 (46.7%)2-3 (40%)7-7 (50%)9-18 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Mets vs. LHP F57-9-1 (43.8%)3-3-1 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-1-0 (0%)3-3-0 (50%)
Mets vs. LHP7-11-1 (38.9%)3-4-1 (42.9%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-1-0 (0%)2-5-0 (28.6%)
Pirates vs. RHP F525-30-5 (45.5%)5-9-0 (35.7%)1-3-1 (25%)7-6-1 (53.8%)11-11-3 (50%)
Pirates vs. RHP26-36-1 (41.9%)6-9-0 (40%)2-3-0 (40%)8-6-0 (57.1%)10-16-1 (38.5%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Paul Blackburn2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)
Mets44-38 (53.7%)18-18 (50%)10-11 (47.6%)4-1 (80%)12-8 (60%)
Bailey Falter9-6 (60%)3-1 (75%)0-1 (0%)3-1 (75%)3-3 (50%)
Pirates38-43 (46.9%)5-13 (27.8%)2-5 (28.6%)14-9 (60.9%)17-16 (51.5%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Paul Blackburn2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)2-0 (100%)
Mets32-51 (38.6%)15-21 (41.7%)8-13 (38.1%)1-4 (20%)7-13 (35%)
Bailey Falter6-9 (40%)0-4 (0%)1-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)3-3 (50%)
Pirates34-49 (41%)5-13 (27.8%)1-6 (14.3%)11-12 (47.8%)16-17 (48.5%)


Batting Matchup
MetsPirates
83TG83
4.4R/G3.3
108HR56
0.245AVG0.23
63SB73
10CS22
MetsPirates
0.173ISO0.11
0.28BABIP0.29
0.324OBP0.303
0.418SLG0.34
0.325wOBA0.287
110wRC+79
MetsPirates
9.2BB%8.8
20.7K%23.6
0.44BB/K0.37
10.2Barrel%8.2
45.6HardHit%40.6
13.3WAR1.7

Pitching Matchup
Paul BlackburnBailey Falter
5G16
3GS16
17.2IP85.1
3.4IP/G5.3
0W6
2L3
61.6LOB%70.5
Paul BlackburnBailey Falter
6.62K/95.38
3.57BB/93.27
7.1K/BB%5.8
34.9GB%38.7
38.1FB%41.8
1.02HR/90.95
8.3HR/FB%8.4
Paul BlackburnBailey Falter
0.361BABIP0.243
6.62ERA3.59
5.29xERA3.76
4.44FIP4.38
4.96xFIP4.85
1.75WHIP1.18
4.84SIERA5.1
0.1WAR0.8

Bullpen Matchup
MetsPirates
3.17BPU/G3.16
3.7IP/G3.4
16W16
13L16
23SV17
15BS14
71.7LOB%70.5
MetsPirates
9.04K/97.87
3.57BB/93.55
14.4K/BB%11.5
42.6GB%43.8
37.6FB%38.4
0.67HR/90.79
7.2HR/FB%8.1
MetsPirates
0.294BABIP0.268
3.48ERA3.87
3.36FIP3.85
3.92xFIP4.29
1.27WHIP1.22
3.62SIERA3.96
3.9WAR2.1