Rays @ Orioles [ Orioles -116 / 9.5 ]

Rays | 46-36 (56.1%) Zack Littell (R) | 6-7 | WHIP: 1.10 | ERA: 3.78
Orioles | 35-47 (42.7%) Zach Eflin (R) | 6-4 | WHIP: 1.38 | ERA: 5.46

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Rays
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
3/3
Matchup:4
Est. fair odds: -163 to -187
Implied win prob: 61.98% to 65.16%
Orioles
Starting Pitcher:
1/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:-4
Est. fair odds: +163 to +187
Implied win prob: 34.84% to 38.02%
Rays Situational Notes

Orioles Situational Notes
Baller Systems
Back home favorite (with a worse record) in the second game of a series coming off a win in game one

Rays Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)TBR -
BAL -		-TBR [ 0 ]Taj Bradley (R)
6/28BAL [ 0 ]Zach Eflin (R)TBR -102
BAL -116		9.5TBR [ 0 ]Zack Littell (R)
6/27BAL [ 22 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)TBR -132
BAL +112		9TBR [ 8 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
6/26KCR [ 0 ]Michael Lorenzen (R)TBR -124
KCR +106		10TBR [ 4 ]Shane Baz (R)
6/25KCR [ 0 ]Michael Wacha (R)TBR -132
KCR +112		9TBR [ 3 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)
6/24KCR [ 1 ]Kris Bubic (L)TBR +120
KCR -142		8.5TBR [ 5 ]Taj Bradley (R)
6/22TBR [ 3 ]Zack Littell (R)TBR -112
DET -108		8.5DET [ 9 ]Casey Mize (R)
6/21TBR [ 8 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)TBR -134
DET +120		9DET [ 3 ]Brant Hurter (R)
6/20TBR [ 14 ]Shane Baz (R)TBR -110
DET -106		8.5DET [ 8 ]Jack Flaherty (R)
6/19TBR [ 1 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)TBR -146
BAL +120		8.5BAL [ 4 ]Charlie Morton (R)
Orioles Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29BAL [ 0 ]Dean Kremer (R)BAL -
TBR -		-TBR [ 0 ]Taj Bradley (R)
6/28BAL [ 0 ]Zach Eflin (R)BAL -116
TBR -102		9.5TBR [ 0 ]Zack Littell (R)
6/27BAL [ 22 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)BAL +112
TBR -132		9TBR [ 8 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
6/25BAL [ 0 ]Brandon Young (R)BAL +120
TEX -156		9TEX [ 7 ]Jacob deGrom (R)
6/24BAL [ 5 ]Charlie Morton (R)BAL -126
TEX +110		10TEX [ 6 ]Jacob Latz (L)
6/23BAL [ 6 ]Trevor Rogers (L)BAL -130
TEX +112		9.5TEX [ 0 ]Patrick Corbin (L)
6/22NYY [ 4 ]Will Warren (R)BAL +164
NYY -210		9.5BAL [ 2 ]Dean Kremer (R)
6/21NYY [ 9 ]Clarke Schmidt (R)BAL +138
NYY -174		9.5BAL [ 0 ]Zach Eflin (R)
6/20NYY [ 3 ]Max Fried (L)BAL +240
NYY -330		9BAL [ 5 ]Tomoyuki Sugano (R)
6/19TBR [ 1 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)BAL +124
TBR -142		8.5BAL [ 4 ]Charlie Morton (R)

Zack Littell Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22TBR [ 3 ]DET [ 9 ]-1128.55504011Casey Mize (R)
6/17TBR [ 1 ]BAL [ 5 ]-1309.56307133Dean Kremer (R)
6/11BOS [ 4 ]TBR [ 3 ]-1029.56608444Walker Buehler (R)
6/6TBR [ 4 ]MIA [ 3 ]-14296406111Edward Cabrera (R)
5/31HOU [ 3 ]TBR [ 16 ]1108.596110233Colton Gordon (L)
6.44.80.271.62.42.4
Zach Eflin Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/21NYY [ 9 ]BAL [ 0 ]1389.534210366Clarke Schmidt (R)
6/16TBR [ 7 ]BAL [ 1 ]106952212277Ryan Pepiot (R)
6/11BAL [ 10 ]DET [ 1 ]-11296.67515011Casey Mize (R)
6/5SEA [ 3 ]BAL [ 4 ]13276708133Bryan Woo (R)
5/30BAL [ 2 ]CHW [ 1 ]-21097614000Jared Shuster (L)
5.534.81.27.81.23.43.4
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zack Littell F54-9-3 (30.8%)1-4-1 (20%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-1 (0%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Zack Littell8-8 (50%)3-3 (50%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)3-3 (50%)
Zach Eflin F54-5-2 (44.4%)1-1-1 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)2-3-1 (40%)
Zach Eflin7-4 (63.6%)2-1 (66.7%)1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)4-2 (66.7%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zack Littell F55-10-0 (33.3%)1-5-0 (16.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)3-3-0 (50%)
Zack Littell4-11-1 (26.7%)1-4-1 (20%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Zach Eflin F55-3-1 (62.5%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-1 (-)0-1-0 (0%)4-0-0 (100%)
Zach Eflin4-6-1 (40%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)1-4-1 (20%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rays vs. RHP F530-24-6 (55.6%)15-9-3 (62.5%)4-3-1 (57.1%)1-4-0 (20%)9-8-0 (52.9%)
Rays vs. RHP34-26 (56.7%)18-9 (66.7%)4-4 (50%)1-4 (20%)10-7 (58.8%)
Orioles vs. RHP F526-24-7 (52%)11-7-1 (61.1%)2-5-1 (28.6%)4-1-0 (80%)9-11-3 (45%)
Orioles vs. RHP27-30 (47.4%)10-9 (52.6%)3-5 (37.5%)3-2 (60%)10-13 (43.5%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rays vs. RHP F525-27-4 (48.1%)10-13-2 (43.5%)3-4-1 (42.9%)2-2-0 (50%)9-6-1 (60%)
Rays vs. RHP26-31-3 (45.6%)11-14-2 (44%)2-6-0 (25%)2-3-0 (40%)9-8-0 (52.9%)
Orioles vs. RHP F529-21-1 (58%)14-4-0 (77.8%)3-4-0 (42.9%)4-1-0 (80%)8-11-1 (42.1%)
Orioles vs. RHP25-29-3 (46.3%)12-6-1 (66.7%)2-6-0 (25%)2-3-0 (40%)7-14-2 (33.3%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zack Littell7-8 (46.7%)1-5 (16.7%)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)4-2 (66.7%)
Rays42-37 (53.2%)16-21 (43.2%)4-4 (50%)5-6 (45.5%)17-6 (73.9%)
Zach Eflin6-5 (54.5%)1-2 (33.3%)1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)4-2 (66.7%)
Orioles31-48 (39.2%)10-21 (32.3%)4-8 (33.3%)3-5 (37.5%)14-14 (50%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Zack Littell7-9 (43.8%)2-4 (33.3%)0-1 (0%)1-1 (50%)4-2 (66.7%)
Rays40-42 (48.8%)21-16 (56.8%)1-7 (12.5%)6-5 (54.5%)11-12 (47.8%)
Zach Eflin6-5 (54.5%)1-2 (33.3%)1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)4-2 (66.7%)
Orioles37-44 (45.7%)13-18 (41.9%)9-3 (75%)3-5 (37.5%)12-16 (42.9%)


Batting Matchup
RaysOrioles
82TG81
4.8R/G4.2
90HR96
0.258AVG0.24
106SB57
24CS16
RaysOrioles
0.15ISO0.159
0.31BABIP0.289
0.323OBP0.307
0.408SLG0.399
0.322wOBA0.31
111wRC+101
RaysOrioles
8.1BB%7.8
22.3K%23.8
0.36BB/K0.33
7.4Barrel%8.7
41.1HardHit%43.4
13.6WAR7.6

Pitching Matchup
Zack LittellZach Eflin
16G11
16GS11
97.2IP61
6.1IP/G5.5
6W6
7L4
87.4LOB%73.8
Zack LittellZach Eflin
6.08K/96.2
1.01BB/91.62
14.1K/BB%11.9
41.8GB%40.6
41.8FB%39.1
2.03HR/92.21
17.2HR/FB%19
Zack LittellZach Eflin
0.258BABIP0.304
3.78ERA5.46
4.58xERA4.01
5.15FIP5.54
4.15xFIP4.25
1.1WHIP1.38
4.13SIERA4.35
0.1WAR-0.3

Bullpen Matchup
RaysOrioles
3.18BPU/G3.52
3.3IP/G3.8
14W11
10L16
19SV19
10BS10
76.2LOB%71.5
RaysOrioles
8.81K/99.73
3.09BB/93.96
15K/BB%14.8
42GB%42.4
38.3FB%38.9
1.22HR/91.19
12.4HR/FB%12.4
RaysOrioles
0.29BABIP0.309
3.75ERA4.46
4.04FIP4.05
3.89xFIP3.9
1.27WHIP1.39
3.55SIERA3.6
1.2WAR1.6