Marlins @ Diamondbacks [ Diamondbacks -146 / 8.5 ]

Marlins | 34-45 (43%) Sandy Alcantara (R) | 4-8 | WHIP: 1.46 | ERA: 6.69
Diamondbacks | 41-39 (51.3%) Brandon Pfaadt (R) | 8-5 | WHIP: 1.39 | ERA: 5.49

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Marlins
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
2/3
Team Batting:
1/3
Matchup:1
Est. fair odds: -111 to -124
Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%
Diamondbacks
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
1/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:-1
Est. fair odds: +111 to +124
Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%
Marlins Situational Notes

Diamondbacks Situational Notes

Marlins Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29ARI [ 0 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)MIA -
ARI -		-MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
6/28ARI [ 0 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)MIA +124
ARI -146		8.5MIA [ 0 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)
6/27ARI [ 8 ]Merrill Kelly (R)MIA +154
ARI -184		8.5MIA [ 9 ]Eury Perez (R)
6/26SFG [ 5 ]Hayden Birdsong (R)MIA +152
SFG -180		7.5MIA [ 12 ]Janson Junk (R)
6/25SFG [ 5 ]Logan Webb (R)MIA +194
SFG -235		6.5MIA [ 8 ]Edward Cabrera (R)
6/24SFG [ 2 ]Justin Verlander (R)MIA +160
SFG -184		8MIA [ 4 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
6/22MIA [ 5 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)MIA +120
ATL -156		8.5ATL [ 3 ]Bryce Elder (R)
6/21MIA [ 0 ]Eury Perez (R)MIA +128
ATL -158		8.5ATL [ 7 ]Grant Holmes (R)
6/20MIA [ 6 ]Janson Junk (R)MIA +122
ATL -156		9ATL [ 2 ]Didier Fuentes (R)
6/19MIA [ 1 ]Edward Cabrera (R)MIA +140
PHI -142		7.5PHI [ 2 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)
Diamondbacks Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29ARI [ 0 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)ARI -
MIA -		-MIA [ 0 ]Cal Quantrill (R)
6/28ARI [ 0 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)ARI -146
MIA +124		8.5MIA [ 0 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)
6/27ARI [ 8 ]Merrill Kelly (R)ARI -184
MIA +154		8.5MIA [ 9 ]Eury Perez (R)
6/25CHW [ 7 ]Sean Burke (R)ARI -152
CHW +128		8ARI [ 3 ]Zac Gallen (R)
6/24CHW [ 1 ]Jordan Leasure (R)ARI -136
CHW -100		8.5ARI [ 4 ]Ryne Nelson (R)
6/23CHW [ 0 ]Shane Smith (R)ARI -142
CHW +120		9.5ARI [ 10 ]Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
6/22COL [ 4 ]Antonio Senzatela (R)ARI -172
COL +144		12ARI [ 2 ]Brandon Pfaadt (R)
6/21COL [ 3 ]Carson Palmquist (L)ARI -200
COL +168		12ARI [ 5 ]Merrill Kelly (R)
6/20COL [ 8 ]Austin Gomber (L)ARI -162
COL +136		11.5ARI [ 14 ]Zac Gallen (R)
6/19TOR [ 5 ]Kevin Gausman (R)ARI +120
TOR -166		8.5ARI [ 9 ]Ryne Nelson (R)

Sandy Alcantara Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22MIA [ 5 ]ATL [ 3 ]1208.56426033Bryce Elder (R)
6/16MIA [ 2 ]PHI [ 5 ]1088.55515222Mick Abel (R)
6/10PIT [ 2 ]MIA [ 3 ]11686613000Mitch Keller (R)
6/3MIA [ 2 ]COL [ 3 ]-1748.56414022Chase Dollander (R)
5/28SDP [ 8 ]MIA [ 10 ]1368.54047066Kyle Hart (L)
5.43.81.850.42.62.6
Brandon Pfaadt Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22COL [ 4 ]ARI [ 2 ]-172125716144Antonio Senzatela (R)
6/17TOR [ 5 ]ARI [ 4 ]1108.55314122Chris Bassitt (R)
6/10ARI [ 10 ]SEA [ 3 ]-1389.55419222Logan Evans (R)
6/5ATL [ 10 ]ARI [ 11 ]13093225056Grant Holmes (R)
5/31ARI [ 7 ]WSN [ 11 ]-1889.50006088Michael Soroka (R)
3.63.2160.84.24.4
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sandy Alcantara F54-8-3 (33.3%)1-0-1 (100%)0-0-1 (-)2-5-0 (28.6%)1-3-1 (25%)
Sandy Alcantara6-9 (40%)1-1 (50%)0-1 (0%)3-4 (42.9%)2-3 (40%)
Brandon Pfaadt F59-6-1 (60%)3-2-0 (60%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)2-2-1 (50%)
Brandon Pfaadt9-7 (56.3%)3-2 (60%)2-2 (50%)2-0 (100%)2-3 (40%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sandy Alcantara F57-4-3 (63.6%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)3-0-3 (100%)3-2-0 (60%)
Sandy Alcantara7-8-0 (46.7%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)2-5-0 (28.6%)4-1-0 (80%)
Brandon Pfaadt F59-5-1 (64.3%)2-3-0 (40%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)3-0-1 (100%)
Brandon Pfaadt8-7-1 (53.3%)2-2-1 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Marlins vs. RHP F520-28-11 (41.7%)1-1-2 (50%)0-1-1 (0%)8-11-3 (42.1%)11-14-5 (44%)
Marlins vs. RHP25-34 (42.4%)2-2 (50%)0-2 (0%)9-13 (40.9%)13-17 (43.3%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F532-20-8 (61.5%)15-8-3 (65.2%)8-6-2 (57.1%)3-1-1 (75%)6-5-2 (54.5%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP32-28 (53.3%)13-13 (50%)10-6 (62.5%)3-2 (60%)6-7 (46.2%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Marlins vs. RHP F529-22-5 (56.9%)3-1-0 (75%)0-2-0 (0%)8-9-3 (47.1%)18-9-2 (66.7%)
Marlins vs. RHP28-31-0 (47.5%)3-1-0 (75%)1-1-0 (50%)7-15-0 (31.8%)17-13-0 (56.7%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP F532-25-2 (56.1%)14-11-1 (56%)8-8-0 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)7-4-1 (63.6%)
Diamondbacks vs. RHP31-27-2 (53.4%)14-10-2 (58.3%)9-7-0 (56.3%)1-4-0 (20%)7-6-0 (53.8%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sandy Alcantara5-10 (33.3%)0-2 (0%)0-1 (0%)3-4 (42.9%)2-3 (40%)
Marlins43-35 (55.1%)1-5 (16.7%)0-2 (0%)19-16 (54.3%)23-12 (65.7%)
Brandon Pfaadt11-5 (68.8%)3-2 (60%)2-2 (50%)2-0 (100%)4-1 (80%)
Diamondbacks40-39 (50.6%)14-19 (42.4%)9-12 (42.9%)3-3 (50%)14-5 (73.7%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Sandy Alcantara7-8 (46.7%)0-2 (0%)0-1 (0%)5-2 (71.4%)2-3 (40%)
Marlins38-42 (47.5%)3-3 (50%)1-1 (50%)17-18 (48.6%)15-20 (42.9%)
Brandon Pfaadt8-8 (50%)2-3 (40%)2-2 (50%)1-1 (50%)3-2 (60%)
Diamondbacks45-36 (55.6%)18-15 (54.5%)11-10 (52.4%)3-3 (50%)11-8 (57.9%)


Batting Matchup
MarlinsDiamondbacks
80TG81
4.2R/G5.2
71HR118
0.255AVG0.255
61SB61
25CS18
MarlinsDiamondbacks
0.136ISO0.194
0.307BABIP0.286
0.317OBP0.331
0.391SLG0.448
0.312wOBA0.339
95wRC+114
MarlinsDiamondbacks
7.9BB%9.3
21.2K%20
0.37BB/K0.47
7.5Barrel%9
40.5HardHit%41.9
6.7WAR16.1

Pitching Matchup
Sandy AlcantaraBrandon Pfaadt
15G16
15GS16
74IP80.1
4.9IP/G5
4W8
8L5
56.3LOB%71
Sandy AlcantaraBrandon Pfaadt
7.18K/97.28
4.14BB/92.24
7.6K/BB%12.7
48.3GB%41.9
33.8FB%33.8
1.22HR/91.79
12.7HR/FB%18.2
Sandy AlcantaraBrandon Pfaadt
0.284BABIP0.31
6.69ERA5.49
4.71xERA6.82
4.71FIP5.14
4.52xFIP4.16
1.46WHIP1.39
4.7SIERA4.15
0.3WAR-0.3

Bullpen Matchup
MarlinsDiamondbacks
3.31BPU/G3.12
4.2IP/G3.4
21W12
14L14
17SV25
13BS14
70.5LOB%68
MarlinsDiamondbacks
7.71K/98.83
3.52BB/93.67
10.8K/BB%13.1
42.2GB%44.7
37.3FB%36.6
1.07HR/91.35
10.7HR/FB%14.2
MarlinsDiamondbacks
0.294BABIP0.311
4.41ERA5.19
4.27FIP4.51
4.36xFIP4.1
1.36WHIP1.42
4.05SIERA3.75
0.3WAR-0.7