Phillies @ Braves [ Braves -158 / 8 ]

Phillies | 48-34 (58.5%) Jesus Luzardo (L) | 7-3 | WHIP: 1.37 | ERA: 4.08
Braves | 37-44 (45.7%) Spencer Schwellenbach (R) | 6-4 | WHIP: 0.99 | ERA: 3.21

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Phillies
Starting Pitcher:
2/4
Bullpen:
0/3
Team Batting:
2/3
Matchup:-2
Est. fair odds: +125 to +141
Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%
Braves
Starting Pitcher:
3/4
Bullpen:
3/3
Team Batting:
0/3
Matchup:2
Est. fair odds: -125 to -141
Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%
Phillies Situational Notes

Braves Situational Notes
Baller Systems
Back home team (with much worse record) off loss as a favorite

Phillies Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29ATL [ 0 ]Spencer Strider (R)PHI -
ATL -		-PHI [ 0 ]Ranger Suarez (L)
6/28ATL [ 0 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)PHI +134
ATL -158		8PHI [ 0 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)
6/27ATL [ 0 ]Bryce Elder (R)PHI +152
ATL -180		9.5PHI [ 13 ]Mick Abel (R)
6/26HOU [ 2 ]Hunter Brown (R)PHI +134
HOU -158		7PHI [ 1 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)
6/25HOU [ 2 ]Colton Gordon (L)PHI -156
HOU +132		7.5PHI [ 0 ]Zack Wheeler (R)
6/24HOU [ 1 ]Framber Valdez (L)PHI +124
HOU -154		7PHI [ 0 ]Ranger Suarez (L)
6/22PHI [ 7 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)PHI -108
NYM -100		9.5NYM [ 1 ]David Peterson (L)
6/21PHI [ 4 ]Mick Abel (R)PHI -118
NYM -118		9.5NYM [ 11 ]Griffin Canning (R)
6/20PHI [ 10 ]Zack Wheeler (R)PHI -196
NYM +164		8.5NYM [ 2 ]Blade Tidwell (R)
6/19MIA [ 1 ]Edward Cabrera (R)PHI -166
MIA +120		7.5PHI [ 2 ]Cristopher Sanchez (L)
Braves Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
6/29ATL [ 0 ]Spencer Strider (R)ATL -
PHI -		-PHI [ 0 ]Ranger Suarez (L)
6/28ATL [ 0 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)ATL -158
PHI +134		8PHI [ 0 ]Jesus Luzardo (L)
6/27ATL [ 0 ]Bryce Elder (R)ATL -180
PHI +152		9.5PHI [ 13 ]Mick Abel (R)
6/26NYM [ 4 ]Griffin Canning (R)ATL -104
NYM -118		8.5ATL [ 0 ]Grant Holmes (R)
6/25NYM [ 7 ]Clay Holmes (R)ATL +124
NYM -138		9ATL [ 3 ]Didier Fuentes (R)
6/24NYM [ 4 ]Frankie Montas (R)ATL -144
NYM +116		9ATL [ 7 ]Spencer Strider (R)
6/23NYM [ 2 ]Paul Blackburn (R)ATL -132
NYM +126		8.5ATL [ 3 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
6/22MIA [ 5 ]Sandy Alcantara (R)ATL -142
MIA +132		8.5ATL [ 3 ]Bryce Elder (R)
6/21MIA [ 0 ]Eury Perez (R)ATL -152
MIA +134		8.5ATL [ 7 ]Grant Holmes (R)
6/20MIA [ 6 ]Janson Junk (R)ATL -144
MIA +132		9ATL [ 2 ]Didier Fuentes (R)

Jesus Luzardo Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/22PHI [ 7 ]NYM [ 1 ]-1089.56.67713000David Peterson (L)
6/17MIA [ 8 ]PHI [ 3 ]-1988.55446144Cal Quantrill (R)
6/11PHI [ 7 ]CHC [ 2 ]-1188.561005011Ben Brown (R)
6/5TOR [ 9 ]PHI [ 1 ]-11882.33229188Chris Bassitt (R)
5/31PHI [ 7 ]MIL [ 17 ]-18483.33431221212Chad Patrick (R)
4.675.4270.855
Spencer Schwellenbach Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
6/23NYM [ 2 ]ATL [ 3 ]-1328.57414122Paul Blackburn (R)
6/17ATL [ 5 ]NYM [ 4 ]-1308.57826244David Peterson (L)
6/11MIL [ 2 ]ATL [ 6 ]-1847.59905122Chad Patrick (R)
6/6SFG [ 5 ]ATL [ 4 ]-1387.56426034Hayden Birdsong (R)
5/31ATL [ 5 ]BOS [ 0 ]-1848.56.331105000Walker Buehler (R)
7.077.215.20.82.22.4
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jesus Luzardo F57-3-6 (70%)2-1-3 (66.7%)3-2-2 (60%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-1 (-)
Jesus Luzardo10-6 (62.5%)4-2 (66.7%)4-3 (57.1%)1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)
Spencer Schwellenbach F58-5-3 (61.5%)5-2-2 (71.4%)3-3-1 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Spencer Schwellenbach10-6 (62.5%)7-2 (77.8%)3-4 (42.9%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jesus Luzardo F57-8-0 (46.7%)3-3-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)
Jesus Luzardo8-6-2 (57.1%)3-3-0 (50%)5-1-1 (83.3%)0-1-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)
Spencer Schwellenbach F58-6-1 (57.1%)3-4-1 (42.9%)5-2-0 (71.4%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Spencer Schwellenbach10-5-1 (66.7%)5-3-1 (62.5%)5-2-0 (71.4%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Phillies vs. RHP F532-15-11 (68.1%)12-4-5 (75%)12-6-2 (66.7%)4-2-0 (66.7%)2-3-4 (40%)
Phillies vs. RHP37-21 (63.8%)15-6 (71.4%)14-6 (70%)3-3 (50%)3-6 (33.3%)
Braves vs. LHP F57-6-2 (53.8%)2-2-2 (50%)3-2-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)
Braves vs. LHP8-7 (53.3%)4-2 (66.7%)3-2 (60%)0-1 (0%)1-2 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Phillies vs. RHP F523-29-2 (44.2%)11-10-0 (52.4%)6-10-1 (37.5%)4-2-0 (66.7%)1-7-0 (12.5%)
Phillies vs. RHP24-30-4 (44.4%)11-10-0 (52.4%)7-11-2 (38.9%)4-2-0 (66.7%)2-7-0 (22.2%)
Braves vs. LHP F54-8-1 (33.3%)0-4-1 (0%)3-2-0 (60%)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)
Braves vs. LHP6-8-1 (42.9%)3-2-1 (60%)2-3-0 (40%)0-1-0 (0%)1-2-0 (33.3%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jesus Luzardo6-9 (40%)2-4 (33.3%)3-4 (42.9%)1-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)
Phillies41-39 (51.3%)14-18 (43.8%)16-15 (51.6%)3-3 (50%)8-3 (72.7%)
Spencer Schwellenbach6-10 (37.5%)4-5 (44.4%)2-5 (28.6%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)
Braves36-46 (43.9%)15-20 (42.9%)11-18 (37.9%)2-1 (66.7%)8-7 (53.3%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Jesus Luzardo9-7 (56.3%)3-3 (50%)3-4 (42.9%)1-0 (100%)1-0 (100%)
Phillies38-44 (46.3%)17-15 (53.1%)13-18 (41.9%)3-3 (50%)4-7 (36.4%)
Spencer Schwellenbach10-6 (62.5%)6-3 (66.7%)4-3 (57.1%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)
Braves43-39 (52.4%)20-15 (57.1%)13-16 (44.8%)2-1 (66.7%)8-7 (53.3%)


Batting Matchup
PhilliesBraves
82TG81
4.7R/G4.1
88HR82
0.256AVG0.243
69SB42
15CS12
PhilliesBraves
0.149ISO0.136
0.303BABIP0.293
0.33OBP0.318
0.405SLG0.379
0.324wOBA0.309
106wRC+95
PhilliesBraves
9.1BB%9.3
20.6K%22.4
0.44BB/K0.42
8.3Barrel%8.8
42.6HardHit%41.5
11.4WAR9.3

Pitching Matchup
Jesus LuzardoSpencer Schwellenbach
16G16
16GS16
90.1IP103.2
5.6IP/G6.5
7W6
3L4
70.3LOB%71.4
Jesus LuzardoSpencer Schwellenbach
10.36K/98.33
2.89BB/91.48
19.5K/BB%19.3
41.9GB%46.8
36.7FB%30.4
0.7HR/91.13
7.7HR/FB%14.6
Jesus LuzardoSpencer Schwellenbach
0.361BABIP0.26
4.08ERA3.21
3.48xERA3.63
2.78FIP3.41
3.26xFIP3.04
1.37WHIP0.99
3.41SIERA3.3
2.6WAR1.9

Bullpen Matchup
PhilliesBraves
3.09BPU/G3.1
3.3IP/G3.2
17W14
12L15
25SV12
15BS12
70.8LOB%74
PhilliesBraves
8.58K/99.08
3.44BB/93.71
13.1K/BB%14.4
37.7GB%45.2
41.4FB%36.4
1.27HR/90.96
11.6HR/FB%11.2
PhilliesBraves
0.302BABIP0.279
4.51ERA3.68
4.24FIP3.82
4.19xFIP3.84
1.38WHIP1.24
3.82SIERA3.61
1.7WAR1.1