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Tigers @ Astros [ -155 / 6.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

October 1, 2024, 2:32 pm
Tigers | 86-76 (53.1%), Tarik Skubal (L) | 18-4 (81.82%)
Astros | 88-73 (54.7%), Framber Valdez (L) | 15-7 (68.18%)

Last updated: December 31, 1969 7:00 pm EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Tigers
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Astros
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Tigers Situational Notes

Astros Situational Notes

Tigers Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
10/2HOUTBD (-)DET +146
HOU -174		7.5DETTBD (-)
10/1HOUFramber Valdez (L)DET +130
HOU -155		6.5DETTarik Skubal (L)
9/29DET [ 5 ]Kenta Maeda (R)DET -240
CHW +198		7.5CHW [ 9 ]Jonathan Cannon (R)
9/28DET [ 0 ]Beau Brieske (R)DET -230
CHW +184		7.5CHW [ 4 ]Sean Burke (R)
9/27DET [ 4 ]Brenan Hanifee (R)DET -188
CHW +176		7.5CHW [ 1 ]Garrett Crochet (L)
9/26DET [ 4 ]Reese Olson (R)DET -178
TBR +130		8TBR [ 3 ]Tyler Alexander (L)
9/25DET [ 7 ]Keider Montero (R)DET -112
TBR +110		7.5TBR [ 1 ]Zack Littell (R)
9/24DET [ 2 ]Tarik Skubal (L)DET -188
TBR +158		6.5TBR [ 1 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)
9/22BAL [ 3 ]Albert Suarez (R)DET +112
BAL -126		8.5DET [ 4 ]Tyler Holton (L)
9/21BAL [ 4 ]Cade Povich (L)DET +104
BAL -132		8.5DET [ 6 ]Reese Olson (R)

Astros Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
10/2HOUTBD (-)HOU -174
DET +146		7.5DETTBD (-)
10/1HOUFramber Valdez (L)HOU -155
DET +130		6.5DETTarik Skubal (L)
9/29CLE [ 0 ]Nick Sandlin (R)HOU +130
CLE -180		7.5HOU [ 0 ]Ryan Gusto (R)
9/28CLE [ 3 ]Ben Lively (R)HOU +102
CLE -156		8.5HOU [ 4 ]Justin Verlander (R)
9/27CLE [ 2 ]Joey Cantillo (L)HOU +102
CLE -120		8HOU [ 5 ]Ronel Blanco (R)
9/25HOU [ 1 ]Yusei Kikuchi (L)HOU +130
SEA -154		7SEA [ 8 ]George Kirby (R)
9/24HOU [ 4 ]Framber Valdez (L)HOU -130
SEA +110		7SEA [ 3 ]Logan Gilbert (R)
9/23HOU [ 1 ]Hunter Brown (R)HOU -132
SEA +112		7.5SEA [ 6 ]Bryce Miller (R)
9/22HOU [ 8 ]Spencer Arrighetti (R)HOU -275
LAA +225		8LAA [ 9 ]Griffin Canning (R)
9/21HOU [ 10 ]Ronel Blanco (R)HOU -230
LAA +190		7.5LAA [ 4 ]Reid Detmers (L)

Tarik Skubal Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/24DET [ 2 ]TBR [ 1 ]-1886.57712000Ryan Pepiot (R)
9/18KCR [ 2 ]DET [ 4 ]-13685713011Alec Marsh (R)
9/12DET [ 2 ]COL [ 4 ]-2507.56604111Ryan Feltner (R)
9/6OAK [ 7 ]DET [ 6 ]-16475.67709022Mitch Spence (R)
8/31DET [ 2 ]BOS [ 1 ]-1547.58804111Nick Pivetta (R)
6.3370.44.40.411

Framber Valdez Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/24HOU [ 4 ]SEA [ 3 ]-13075.67428133Logan Gilbert (R)
9/18SDP [ 4 ]HOU [ 0 ]-1066.57625111Dylan Cease (R)
9/12HOU [ 6 ]OAK [ 3 ]-27086.33615011Mitch Spence (R)
9/6HOU [ 8 ]ARI [ 0 ]-1627.57732000Brandon Pfaadt (R)
8/30HOU [ 3 ]KCR [ 2 ]-1807.57730000Seth Lugo (R)
6.662.240.411


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

TigersAstros
162TG161
4.2R/G4.6
162HR190
0.234AVG0.262
76SB93
24CS24
TigersAstros
0.151ISO0.157
0.288BABIP0.299
0.3OBP0.322
0.385SLG0.418
0.299wOBA0.321
95wRC+111
TigersAstros
7.9BB%7.3
24.3K%19.3
0.33BB/K0.38
7.5Barrel%7.5
37.5HardHit%38.7
19.4WAR26.1

Pitching Matchup

Tarik SkubalFramber Valdez
31G28
31GS28
192IP176.1
6.2IP/G6.3
18W15
4L7
80LOB%77.1
Tarik SkubalFramber Valdez
10.69K/98.63
1.64BB/92.81
25.6K/BB%16.2
45.7GB%60.6
35.8FB%20
0.7HR/90.66
8.8HR/FB%14
Tarik SkubalFramber Valdez
0.273BABIP0.276
2.39ERA2.91
2.7xERA3.36
2.49FIP3.25
2.83xFIP3.08
0.92WHIP1.11
2.89SIERA3.41
5.9WAR3.6

Bullpen Matchup

TigersAstros
3.11BPU/G3.17
4.3IP/G3.4
46W29
36L26
45SV43
26BS26
71.6LOB%75.7
TigersAstros
8.09K/99.66
2.72BB/93.56
14.5K/BB%16.1
43.5GB%41.5
37.5FB%38.7
0.99HR/91.18
10.3HR/FB%12.7
TigersAstros
0.262BABIP0.281
3.55ERA3.66
3.84FIP4.08
4.03xFIP3.94
1.14WHIP1.25
3.75SIERA3.6
3.6WAR2.1

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tarik Skubal F519-5-6 (79.2%)10-1-2 (90.9%)6-1-1 (85.7%)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-3 (50%)
Tarik Skubal20-10 (66.7%)9-4 (69.2%)6-2 (75%)2-0 (100%)3-4 (42.9%)
Framber Valdez F517-8-3 (68%)11-3-1 (78.6%)4-3-1 (57.1%)0-0-0 (-)2-2-1 (50%)
Framber Valdez19-9 (67.9%)11-4 (73.3%)6-2 (75%)0-0 (-)2-3 (40%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tarik Skubal F516-13-1 (55.2%)6-6-1 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Tarik Skubal17-13-0 (56.7%)7-6-0 (53.8%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Framber Valdez F512-15-1 (44.4%)7-7-1 (50%)3-5-0 (37.5%)0-0-0 (-)2-3-0 (40%)
Framber Valdez8-17-3 (32%)6-7-2 (46.2%)0-7-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)2-3-0 (40%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tigers vs. LHP F516-12-5 (57.1%)4-3-2 (57.1%)2-3-0 (40%)4-1-0 (80%)5-5-3 (50%)
Tigers vs. LHP21-12 (63.6%)4-5 (44.4%)4-1 (80%)4-1 (80%)8-5 (61.5%)
Astros vs. LHP F522-15-10 (59.5%)10-7-5 (58.8%)9-6-3 (60%)1-0-0 (100%)2-2-2 (50%)
Astros vs. LHP26-21 (55.3%)15-7 (68.2%)9-9 (50%)0-1 (0%)2-4 (33.3%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tigers vs. LHP F512-19-0 (38.7%)3-6-0 (33.3%)2-3-0 (40%)3-2-0 (60%)4-7-0 (36.4%)
Tigers vs. LHP14-19-0 (42.4%)3-6-0 (33.3%)2-3-0 (40%)2-3-0 (40%)7-6-0 (53.8%)
Astros vs. LHP F521-25-1 (45.7%)7-15-0 (31.8%)10-8-0 (55.6%)0-0-1 (-)4-2-0 (66.7%)
Astros vs. LHP19-25-3 (43.2%)9-12-1 (42.9%)6-11-1 (35.3%)0-0-1 (-)4-2-0 (66.7%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tarik Skubal15-15 (50%)5-8 (38.5%)5-3 (62.5%)2-0 (100%)3-4 (42.9%)
Tigers86-76 (53.1%)15-32 (31.9%)8-11 (42.1%)19-13 (59.4%)44-20 (68.8%)
Framber Valdez17-11 (60.7%)8-7 (53.3%)6-2 (75%)0-0 (-)3-2 (60%)
Astros82-77 (51.6%)33-40 (45.2%)22-22 (50%)5-4 (55.6%)22-11 (66.7%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Tarik Skubal16-14 (53.3%)8-5 (61.5%)3-5 (37.5%)1-1 (50%)4-3 (57.1%)
Tigers79-86 (47.9%)23-24 (48.9%)9-10 (47.4%)19-13 (59.4%)28-36 (43.8%)
Framber Valdez13-15 (46.4%)7-8 (46.7%)5-3 (62.5%)0-0 (-)1-4 (20%)
Astros75-87 (46.3%)33-40 (45.2%)24-20 (54.5%)4-5 (44.4%)14-19 (42.4%)