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Rays @ Tigers [ -188 / 6.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

September 24, 2024, 1:10 pm
Rays | 80-82 (49.4%), Ryan Pepiot (R) | 8-8 (50%)
Tigers | 87-76 (53.4%), Tarik Skubal (L) | 18-4 (81.82%)

Last updated: September 26, 2024 12:03 pm EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Rays
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Tigers
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Rays Situational Notes
Baller Systems
• First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak

Tigers Situational Notes

Rays Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/25DETKeider Montero (R)TBR -104
DET -130		7.5TBRZack Littell (R)
9/24DETTarik Skubal (L)TBR +158
DET -188		6.5TBRRyan Pepiot (R)
9/22TBR [ 4 ]Shane Baz (R)TBR -148
TOR +116		7.5TOR [ 3 ]Ryan Burr (R)
9/21TBR [ 3 ]Taj Bradley (R)TBR -138
TOR +120		8TOR [ 2 ]Yariel Rodriguez (R)
9/20TBR [ 1 ]Tyler Alexander (L)TBR -110
TOR -118		7.5TOR [ 0 ]Jose Berrios (R)
9/19TBR [ 2 ]Zack Littell (R)TBR -104
BOS -112		8BOS [ 0 ]Brayan Bello (R)
9/18TBR [ 1 ]Ryan Pepiot (R)TBR -116
BOS -106		7.5BOS [ 2 ]Tanner Houck (R)
9/17TBR [ 8 ]Shane Baz (R)TBR -110
BOS -130		7.5BOS [ 3 ]Nick Pivetta (R)
9/15CLE [ 2 ]Ben Lively (R)TBR +106
CLE -124		8TBR [ 0 ]Taj Bradley (R)
9/14CLE [ 6 ]Joey Cantillo (L)TBR +110
CLE -138		8.5TBR [ 1 ]Drew Rasmussen (R)

Tigers Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/25DETKeider Montero (R)DET -112
TBR +110		7.5TBRZack Littell (R)
9/24DETTarik Skubal (L)DET -188
TBR +158		6.5TBRRyan Pepiot (R)
9/22BAL [ 3 ]Albert Suarez (R)DET +112
BAL -126		8.5DET [ 4 ]Tyler Holton (L)
9/21BAL [ 4 ]Cade Povich (L)DET +104
BAL -132		8.5DET [ 6 ]Reese Olson (R)
9/20BAL [ 7 ]Corbin Burnes (R)DET +164
BAL -158		7.5DET [ 1 ]Tyler Holton (L)
9/18KCR [ 2 ]Alec Marsh (R)DET -136
KCR +116		8DET [ 4 ]Tarik Skubal (L)
9/17KCR [ 1 ]Cole Ragans (L)DET +134
KCR -158		8DET [ 3 ]Casey Mize (R)
9/16KCR [ 6 ]Seth Lugo (R)DET +114
KCR -134		8DET [ 7 ]Reese Olson (R)
9/15DET [ 4 ]Keider Montero (R)DET -108
BAL -108		8.5BAL [ 2 ]Cade Povich (L)
9/14DET [ 2 ]Beau Brieske (R)DET +146
BAL -142		8BAL [ 4 ]Corbin Burnes (R)

Ryan Pepiot Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/18TBR [ 1 ]BOS [ 2 ]-1167.561202111Tanner Houck (R)
9/12CLE [ 2 ]TBR [ 5 ]1167.52124022Gavin Williams (R)
9/7BAL [ 1 ]TBR [ 7 ]1467.55.33426111Zach Eflin (R)
9/1TBR [ 3 ]SDP [ 4 ]11073444133Dylan Cease (R)
8/26SEA [ 5 ]TBR [ 1 ]1106.56617225Bryce Miller (R)
4.475.41.84.611.82.4

Tarik Skubal Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/18KCR [ 2 ]DET [ 4 ]-13685713011Alec Marsh (R)
9/12DET [ 2 ]COL [ 4 ]-2507.56604111Ryan Feltner (R)
9/6OAK [ 7 ]DET [ 6 ]-16475.67709022Mitch Spence (R)
8/31DET [ 2 ]BOS [ 1 ]-1547.58804111Nick Pivetta (R)
8/24CHW [ 4 ]DET [ 13 ]-24085808033Ky Bush (L)
5.937.20.25.60.41.61.6


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

RaysTigers
162TG162
3.7R/G4.2
147HR162
0.23AVG0.234
178SB76
53CS24
RaysTigers
0.136ISO0.151
0.289BABIP0.288
0.302OBP0.3
0.366SLG0.385
0.294wOBA0.299
95wRC+95
RaysTigers
8.2BB%7.9
24.7K%24.3
0.33BB/K0.33
7.4Barrel%7.5
36.5HardHit%37.5
16.1WAR19.2

Pitching Matchup

Ryan PepiotTarik Skubal
26G31
26GS31
130IP192
5IP/G6.2
8W18
8L4
74.3LOB%80
Ryan PepiotTarik Skubal
9.83K/910.69
3.32BB/91.64
17.4K/BB%25.6
35.3GB%45.7
45.6FB%35.8
1.18HR/90.7
11HR/FB%8.8
Ryan PepiotTarik Skubal
0.262BABIP0.273
3.6ERA2.39
3.64xERA2.7
3.95FIP2.49
4.05xFIP2.83
1.15WHIP0.92
3.88SIERA2.89
1.9WAR5.9

Bullpen Matchup

RaysTigers
3.35BPU/G3.11
3.9IP/G4.3
42W46
32L36
51SV45
21BS26
73.7LOB%71.6
RaysTigers
8.85K/98.09
3.13BB/92.72
15.2K/BB%14.5
42.1GB%43.5
40.9FB%37.5
1.17HR/90.99
11.5HR/FB%10.3
RaysTigers
0.268BABIP0.262
3.73ERA3.55
4.1FIP3.84
4.12xFIP4.03
1.19WHIP1.14
3.7SIERA3.75
2.2WAR3.6

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Ryan Pepiot F512-12-1 (50%)4-4-1 (50%)4-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)3-3-0 (50%)
Ryan Pepiot13-12 (52%)3-6 (33.3%)4-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)3-3 (50%)
Tarik Skubal F519-5-6 (79.2%)10-1-2 (90.9%)6-1-1 (85.7%)1-1-0 (50%)2-2-3 (50%)
Tarik Skubal20-10 (66.7%)9-4 (69.2%)6-2 (75%)2-0 (100%)3-4 (42.9%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Ryan Pepiot F510-14-0 (41.7%)2-6-0 (25%)2-2-0 (50%)2-2-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)
Ryan Pepiot10-12-3 (45.5%)3-5-1 (37.5%)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-2 (100%)2-4-0 (33.3%)
Tarik Skubal F516-13-1 (55.2%)6-6-1 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Tarik Skubal17-13-0 (56.7%)7-6-0 (53.8%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rays vs. LHP F516-17-4 (48.5%)8-5-0 (61.5%)4-1-0 (80%)3-3-1 (50%)1-8-3 (11.1%)
Rays vs. LHP19-18 (51.4%)8-5 (61.5%)3-2 (60%)4-3 (57.1%)4-8 (33.3%)
Tigers vs. RHP F551-55-21 (48.1%)17-12-4 (58.6%)7-4-3 (63.6%)7-16-4 (30.4%)19-22-10 (46.3%)
Tigers vs. RHP65-62 (51.2%)20-13 (60.6%)9-5 (64.3%)12-15 (44.4%)23-28 (45.1%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rays vs. LHP F520-15-2 (57.1%)7-6-0 (53.8%)4-1-0 (80%)4-2-1 (66.7%)5-6-1 (45.5%)
Rays vs. LHP20-17-0 (54.1%)8-5-0 (61.5%)4-1-0 (80%)3-4-0 (42.9%)5-7-0 (41.7%)
Tigers vs. RHP F553-64-6 (45.3%)13-17-2 (43.3%)8-6-0 (57.1%)10-16-0 (38.5%)22-23-4 (48.9%)
Tigers vs. RHP65-60-2 (52%)18-15-0 (54.5%)7-6-1 (53.8%)12-15-0 (44.4%)27-23-1 (54%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Ryan Pepiot11-12 (47.8%)1-8 (11.1%)3-1 (75%)3-1 (75%)4-2 (66.7%)
Rays79-69 (53.4%)16-29 (35.6%)8-10 (44.4%)20-11 (64.5%)35-19 (64.8%)
Tarik Skubal15-15 (50%)5-8 (38.5%)5-3 (62.5%)2-0 (100%)3-4 (42.9%)
Tigers84-73 (53.5%)13-29 (31%)8-11 (42.1%)19-13 (59.4%)44-20 (68.8%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Ryan Pepiot14-11 (56%)3-6 (33.3%)2-2 (50%)3-1 (75%)4-2 (66.7%)
Rays71-86 (45.2%)14-31 (31.1%)11-7 (61.1%)16-15 (51.6%)27-27 (50%)
Tarik Skubal16-14 (53.3%)8-5 (61.5%)3-5 (37.5%)1-1 (50%)4-3 (57.1%)
Tigers78-82 (48.8%)22-20 (52.4%)9-10 (47.4%)19-13 (59.4%)28-36 (43.8%)