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Reds @ Twins [ -174 / 8.5 ]Copied and ready to share! Glossary | Baller Glossary | Cheat Sheets

September 15, 2024, 12:05 pm
Reds | 74-78 (48.7%), Rhett Lowder (R) | 1-2 (33.33%)
Twins | 80-71 (53%), David Festa (R) | 2-6 (25%)

Last updated: September 17, 2024 6:45 am EST

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.

Reds
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Twins
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Reds Situational Notes

Twins Situational Notes
Baller Systems
• Avoid sweep in last game of series after two losses as home faves

Reds Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/17CINBrandon Williamson (L)CIN -100
ATL -142		9ATLGrant Holmes (R)
9/15MINDavid Festa (R)CIN +146
MIN -174		8.5CINRhett Lowder (R)
9/14MIN [ 1 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)CIN +132
MIN -156		8.5CIN [ 11 ]Nick Martinez (R)
9/13MIN [ 4 ]Bailey Ober (R)CIN +190
MIN -230		8.5CIN [ 8 ]Julian Aguiar (R)
9/12STL [ 6 ]Sonny Gray (R)CIN +128
STL -152		7.5CIN [ 1 ]Jakob Junis (R)
9/11STL [ 2 ]Lance Lynn (R)CIN +124
STL -146		8CIN [ 1 ]Brandon Williamson (L)
9/10STL [ 0 ]Andre Pallante (R)CIN +114
STL -134		8.5CIN [ 3 ]Rhett Lowder (R)
9/9ATL [ 0 ]Charlie Morton (R)CIN +132
ATL -156		8.5CIN [ 1 ]Nick Martinez (R)
9/8NYM [ 1 ]Luis Severino (R)CIN -
NYM -210		-CIN [ 3 ]Julian Aguiar (R)
9/7NYM [ 4 ]Jose Quintana (L)CIN +128
NYM -152		8.5CIN [ 0 ]Jakob Junis (R)

Twins Schedule

Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
9/16CLEMatthew Boyd (L)MIN -118
CLE -100		7.5MINPablo Lopez (R)
9/15MINDavid Festa (R)MIN -174
CIN +146		8.5CINRhett Lowder (R)
9/14MIN [ 1 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)MIN -156
CIN +132		8.5CIN [ 11 ]Nick Martinez (R)
9/13MIN [ 4 ]Bailey Ober (R)MIN -230
CIN +190		8.5CIN [ 8 ]Julian Aguiar (R)
9/11MIN [ 6 ]Zebby Matthews (R)MIN -215
LAA +180		9LAA [ 4 ]Jack Kochanowicz (R)
9/10MIN [ 10 ]Pablo Lopez (R)MIN -260
LAA +215		8LAA [ 5 ]Griffin Canning (R)
9/9MIN [ 2 ]David Festa (R)MIN -172
LAA +144		8LAA [ 6 ]Reid Detmers (L)
9/8KCR [ 2 ]Michael Wacha (R)MIN +102
KCR -120		8.5MIN [ 0 ]Simeon Woods Richardson (R)
9/7KCR [ 4 ]Alec Marsh (R)MIN -138
KCR +118		8MIN [ 2 ]Bailey Ober (R)
9/6KCR [ 5 ]Cole Ragans (L)MIN +120
KCR -142		7.5MIN [ 0 ]Zebby Matthews (R)

Rhett Lowder Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/10STL [ 0 ]CIN [ 3 ]1148.55305000Andre Pallante (R)
9/5CIN [ 1 ]HOU [ 0 ]13696.33344000Hunter Brown (R)
8/30CIN [ 0 ]MIL [ 14 ]-1169.54642011DL Hall (R)
5.1142.673.6700.330.33

David Festa Last 5 Starts

H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
9/9MIN [ 2 ]LAA [ 6 ]-17284434144Reid Detmers (L)
9/3TBR [ 2 ]MIN [ 1 ]-1027.55715022Jeffrey Springs (L)
8/28MIN [ 1 ]ATL [ 5 ]1187.56712122Chris Sale (L)
8/23MIN [ 1 ]STL [ 6 ]-1528.53.67523033Andre Pallante (R)
8/17TEX [ 2 ]MIN [ 5 ]12085606022Nathan Eovaldi (R)
4.735.81.440.42.62.6


Matchup and Splits


Batting Matchup

RedsTwins
152TG151
4.4R/G4.7
169HR178
0.233AVG0.249
200SB64
43CS22
RedsTwins
0.161ISO0.171
0.285BABIP0.292
0.307OBP0.318
0.395SLG0.42
0.306wOBA0.32
90wRC+109
RedsTwins
8.3BB%7.7
24.6K%21.5
0.34BB/K0.36
7.1Barrel%8
35.9HardHit%38.4
9.8WAR23.1

Pitching Matchup

Rhett LowderDavid Festa
4G12
4GS11
20.2IP55
5.1IP/G4.6
1W2
2L6
84.6LOB%69
Rhett LowderDavid Festa
7.4K/910.8
3.92BB/93.11
9.5K/BB%20
42.1GB%37.4
29.8FB%40.8
0HR/91.47
0HR/FB%15
Rhett LowderDavid Festa
0.293BABIP0.302
1.74ERA5.07
4.36xERA4.1
2.83FIP4.04
4.08xFIP3.57
1.26WHIP1.27
4.66SIERA3.52
0.6WAR0.7

Bullpen Matchup

RedsTwins
3.3BPU/G3.2
3.7IP/G3.5
26W33
34L27
35SV42
15BS18
73.5LOB%68.5
RedsTwins
9.31K/99.36
3.1BB/93.18
16.3K/BB%16.2
38.1GB%43.4
42.2FB%37.1
1.11HR/90.93
10.6HR/FB%10.1
RedsTwins
0.292BABIP0.29
3.93ERA4.12
3.92FIP3.7
4.08xFIP3.9
1.25WHIP1.23
3.61SIERA3.56
5.5WAR5

Splits by Starter, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rhett Lowder F52-0-1 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-1 (-)2-0-0 (100%)
Rhett Lowder2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)
David Festa F52-8-1 (20%)0-4-1 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)
David Festa4-7 (36.4%)1-4 (20%)2-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)1-1 (50%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rhett Lowder F50-3-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)
Rhett Lowder1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)
David Festa F53-8-0 (27.3%)2-3-0 (40%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)
David Festa3-6-2 (33.3%)2-1-2 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F548-44-18 (52.2%)11-19-3 (36.7%)7-3-2 (70%)10-5-2 (66.7%)19-16-11 (54.3%)
Reds vs. RHP57-53 (51.8%)15-18 (45.5%)9-3 (75%)11-6 (64.7%)21-25 (45.7%)
Twins vs. RHP F546-46-15 (50%)24-21-7 (53.3%)11-11-5 (50%)2-2-2 (50%)7-12-1 (36.8%)
Twins vs. RHP58-49 (54.2%)28-24 (53.8%)18-9 (66.7%)3-3 (50%)8-12 (40%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Reds vs. RHP F553-51-6 (51%)13-17-3 (43.3%)10-1-1 (90.9%)10-6-1 (62.5%)19-26-1 (42.2%)
Reds vs. RHP51-54-5 (48.6%)17-13-3 (56.7%)9-3-0 (75%)5-12-0 (29.4%)19-25-2 (43.2%)
Twins vs. RHP F550-49-5 (50.5%)25-22-4 (53.2%)13-13-0 (50%)2-4-0 (33.3%)9-10-0 (47.4%)
Twins vs. RHP54-50-3 (51.9%)27-23-2 (54%)15-11-1 (57.7%)3-3-0 (50%)7-13-0 (35%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rhett Lowder2-1 (66.7%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)1-0 (100%)1-1 (50%)
Reds80-68 (54.1%)18-31 (36.7%)10-7 (58.8%)16-9 (64%)36-21 (63.2%)
David Festa5-5 (50%)1-4 (20%)2-0 (100%)0-1 (0%)2-0 (100%)
Twins66-79 (45.5%)25-36 (41%)18-21 (46.2%)6-7 (46.2%)17-15 (53.1%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)

YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)

OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Rhett Lowder0-3 (0%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)0-2 (0%)
Reds63-87 (42%)16-33 (32.7%)11-6 (64.7%)12-13 (48%)22-35 (38.6%)
David Festa2-9 (18.2%)1-4 (20%)0-2 (0%)1-0 (100%)0-2 (0%)
Twins74-75 (49.7%)32-29 (52.5%)17-22 (43.6%)7-6 (53.8%)16-16 (50%)