Tonight’s showdown at Progressive Field promises excitement as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians. With Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore and Carlos Carrasco pitching for Cleveland, the Orioles look to capitalize on their recent success against right-handed pitchers.
Pitching Matchup: Kremer vs. Carrasco
Dean Kremer has proven to be an effective starter for Baltimore this season. Utilizing a mix of pitches, including a 37% 4-seam fastball, 27% cutter, 13% sinker, and 10% curveball, Kremer has held opposing hitters in check. The Guardians rank 15th, 29th, 21st, and 15th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Notably, right-handed starters have posted a stellar 2.24 ERA against Cleveland over the past 30 days, highlighting the Guardians’ struggles against such pitchers.
Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, has had a rough patch recently. Over the last 15 days, he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched. Carrasco’s primary arsenal includes a 26% 4-seam fastball, 26% slider, 25% changeup, and 17% sinker. However, his fastball velocity ranks in the 13th percentile, making it more hittable. The Orioles rank 3rd, 14th, 6th, and 24th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Additionally, pitchers with similar repertoires to Carrasco have posted a 4.71 ERA against Baltimore over the last year.
Carrasco has struggled significantly this season, ranking among the worst in several key pitching metrics. He is third-worst in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), fourth-worst in home runs per nine innings (HR/9), third-worst in opponent batting average, and tenth-worst in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). His career record as a home underdog stands at a disappointing 2-21.
Orioles’ Offensive Edge
The Orioles have been an unstoppable force against right-handed pitchers on the road this season, leading the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). They also rank fourth in both metrics over the last 30 days. In contrast, the Guardians have struggled mightily against right-handers at home, ranking 27th in wOBA and wRC+ over the past month.
A key player to watch is Gunnar Henderson, who has been outstanding against sliders, a key pitch in Carrasco’s arsenal. Henderson leads the league with a .756 slugging percentage on sliders this season. Carrasco has allowed a .486 slugging percentage on sliders, ranking third-highest among qualified pitchers. Henderson’s prowess extends to facing right-handed pitchers with low strikeout rates like Carrasco; he has a .647 slugging percentage in his last 196 plate appearances against such pitchers. Furthermore, Henderson boasts a .533 batting average against the Guardians this season, making him a critical factor in tonight’s game.
Prediction
Given the Orioles’ offensive strength against right-handed pitching and Carrasco’s recent struggles, betting on the Orioles ML (-110, Caesars) seems a favorable option, as they aim to capitalize on their advantages and continue their strong form against right-handed pitching.