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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+9) a 40.7-36% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 165.5 around 49.9-49% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 33.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 45.8% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Rest advantage

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/25NYLNYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN---
6/23ATLNYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL---
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6
6/18PHO [ 99 ]NYL -5.5
PHO +5.5
171.5NYL [ 93 ]-6-11.5+20.5
6/15LVA [ 82 ]NYL +2.5
LVA -2.5
174NYL [ 90 ]+8+10.5-2
6/9NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
WAS +14
156WAS [ 88 ]+5-9+25
6/8CON [ 75 ]NYL -2
CON +2
154NYL [ 82 ]+7+5+3
6/6ATL [ 61 ]NYL -6.5
ATL +6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]+17+10.5-24.5
6/4CHI [ 75 ]NYL -8
CHI +8
165.5NYL [ 88 ]+13+5-2.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/28CONATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL---
6/23ATLATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL---
6/21ATL [ 79 ]ATL +3
IND -3
163IND [ 91 ]-12-9+7
6/19MIN [ 68 ]ATL +9.5
MIN -9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]-13-3.5-39.5
6/16ATL [ 87 ]ATL -5
LAS +5
161LAS [ 74 ]+13+80
6/13IND [ 91 ]ATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]-7-9.5+11
6/11ATL [ 68 ]ATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]-19-25-1.5
6/8CHI [ 80 ]ATL -1
CHI +1
158.5ATL [ 89 ]+9+8+10.5
6/6ATL [ 61 ]ATL +6.5
NYL -6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]-17-10.5-24.5
6/2ATL [ 50 ]ATL +2.5
CON -2.5
159CON [ 69 ]-19-16.5-40

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/26ATL-
-		-NYL--------
9/24NYLATL +12.5
NYL -12.5
156.5ATL--------
9/22NYLATL +13
NYL -13
156ATL--------
9/19NYLATL +5.5
NYL -5.5
157ATL--------
6/30NYLATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL--------
6/23ATLATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL--------
6/6ATL [ 61 ]ATL +6.5
NYL -6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]-17-10.5-24.591.979.6101.8-22.2139
7/27NYL [ 95 ]ATL +8.5
NYL -8.5
175ATL [ 84 ]-11-2.5+497.3103.6117.2-13.6179
6/23ATL [ 80 ]ATL +7.5
NYL -7.5
172.5NYL [ 110 ]-30-22.5+17.5109.487.8120.7-32.9190
6/13NYL [ 79 ]ATL +10
NYL -10
171ATL [ 86 ]+7+17-693.7110.2101.29165
6/9ATL [ 83 ]ATL +6
NYL -6
163.5NYL [ 106 ]-23-17+25.5103.196.6123.4-26.8189


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h11-4-27-1-10-0-03-3-11-0-01-0-10-0-14-1-02-1-2
Liberty 14-38-10-05-21-02-01-04-14-1
Dream 1h3-10-11-3-00-4-02-2-10-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0
Dream 6-82-21-33-20-10-00-01-41-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h7-10-04-5-00-0-02-5-01-0-01-1-00-1-03-2-01-4-0
Liberty 6-11-01-8-00-0-04-3-01-0-01-1-00-1-02-3-03-2-0
Dream 1h3-10-11-3-00-4-02-3-00-0-10-0-00-0-01-3-11-2-0
Dream 5-9-01-3-01-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h8-9-06-3-00-0-02-5-00-1-01-1-01-0-03-2-02-3-0
Liberty 10-7-07-2-00-0-03-4-00-1-02-0-01-0-02-3-03-2-0
Dream 1h7-7-03-1-01-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-01-2-0
Dream 6-7-11-2-11-3-04-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-3-12-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h9-8-05-4-00-0-03-4-01-0-01-1-01-0-03-2-02-3-0
Liberty 10-7-05-4-00-0-04-3-01-0-02-0-01-0-03-2-03-2-0
Dream 1h6-8-02-2-01-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-01-2-0
Dream 4-10-01-3-00-4-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-01-4-01-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h9-7-15-4-00-0-04-2-10-1-01-0-11-0-02-3-03-1-1
Liberty 9-8-06-3-00-0-03-4-00-1-01-1-01-0-01-4-02-3-0
Dream 1h7-6-13-0-11-3-03-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-2-12-1-0
Dream 7-7-02-2-01-3-04-1-00-1-00-0-00-0-02-3-02-1-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-3-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)2-0-0 (100%)1-9-0 (10%)