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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (+2) a 65.6-70.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 154 around 47.4-47.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 67.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 43% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Sun Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/9NYLNYL -14
WAS +14
156WAS---
6/8CONNYL -2
CON +2
154NYL---
6/6ATL [ 61 ]NYL -6.5
ATL +6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]+17+10.5-24.5
6/4CHI [ 75 ]NYL -8
CHI +8
165.5NYL [ 88 ]+13+5-2.5
6/2NYL [ 104 ]NYL -14.5
IND +14.5
169IND [ 68 ]+36+21.5+3
5/31NYL [ 90 ]NYL -13
WAS +13
159.5WAS [ 79 ]+11-2+9.5
5/29NYL [ 81 ]NYL -14.5
PHO +14.5
173PHO [ 78 ]+3-11.5-14
5/25MIN [ 84 ]NYL -6.5
MIN +6.5
167.5NYL [ 67 ]-17-23.5-16.5
5/23NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
CHI +15.5
165CHI [ 90 ]-9-24.5+6
5/20NYL [ 74 ]NYL -13.5
SEA +13.5
166SEA [ 63 ]+11-2.5-29

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/10CONCON -10
IND +10
159.5IND---
6/8CONCON +2
NYL -2
154NYL---
6/4CON [ 76 ]CON -13
WAS +13
152WAS [ 59 ]+17+4-17
6/2ATL [ 50 ]CON -2.5
ATL +2.5
159CON [ 69 ]+19+16.5-40
5/31CON [ 74 ]CON -8.5
DAL +8.5
161.5DAL [ 72 ]+2-6.5-15.5
5/28CON [ 70 ]CON -8
PHO +8
168PHO [ 47 ]+23+15-51
5/25CHI [ 82 ]CON -5
CHI +5
160.5CON [ 86 ]+4-1+7.5
5/23CON [ 83 ]CON -6.5
MIN +6.5
165MIN [ 82 ]+1-5.50
5/20IND [ 84 ]CON -5.5
IND +5.5
163.5CON [ 88 ]+4-1.5+8.5
5/17CON [ 84 ]CON -8
WAS +8
157.5WAS [ 77 ]+7-1+3.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/24NYLCON +8
NYL -8
158CON--------
7/16NYLCON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON--------
7/10CONCON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL--------
6/8CONCON +2
NYL -2
154NYL--------
10/1CON [ 84 ]CON +5.5
NYL -5.5
160.5NYL [ 87 ]-3+2.5+10.595.5105.5109.3-3.8171
9/29CON [ 81 ]CON +4
NYL -4
158NYL [ 92 ]-11-7+1591106.8121.3-14.5173
9/26NYL [ 84 ]CON +9.5
NYL -9.5
159CON [ 77 ]-7+2.5+290.4102.2111.4-9.3161
9/24NYL [ 63 ]CON +8.5
NYL -8.5
163CON [ 78 ]+15+23.5-2281115.593.322.2141
9/1NYL [ 89 ]CON +7
NYL -7
160CON [ 58 ]-31-24-1390.377.1118.3-41.2147
8/24CON [ 90 ]CON +6
NYL -6
166NYL [ 95 ]-5+1+1990.5108.1114.1-6167.5
6/27CON [ 81 ]CON +4.5
NYL -4.5
168NYL [ 89 ]-8-3.5+294103.4113.6-10.2170


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h8-3-05-1-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-03-0-02-1-0
Liberty 9-25-10-04-10-00-00-03-02-1
Sun 1h5-3-14-1-10-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-02-1-0
Sun 9-06-00-03-00-00-00-01-03-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h5-6-03-3-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-2-0
Liberty 4-7-01-5-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-02-1-0
Sun 1h4-5-03-3-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-01-2-0
Sun 4-5-03-3-00-0-01-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-01-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h5-6-04-2-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-01-2-0
Liberty 5-6-04-2-00-0-01-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-2-0
Sun 1h3-6-01-5-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-3-0
Sun 3-5-11-4-10-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-2-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h5-6-03-3-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-2-0
Liberty 4-7-02-4-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-01-2-0
Sun 1h1-8-01-5-00-0-00-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-1-00-3-0
Sun 4-5-02-4-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h6-5-03-3-00-0-03-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-2-02-1-0
Liberty 5-6-03-3-00-0-02-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-3-01-2-0
Sun 1h2-7-00-6-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-00-3-0
Sun 4-5-02-4-00-0-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-01-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-3-0 (40%)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)1-6-0 (14.3%)