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Eagles @ Chiefs [ Chiefs -1.5 / 49.5 ]

Eagles | 17-3 (85%)
Chiefs | 17-2 (89.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our model gives the Chiefs (-1.5) a 57.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (49.5) around 49.4% of the time. While we factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits, we don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variance.

Eagles Situational Notes
Extended rest: Off a bye week

Chiefs Situational Notes
Extended rest: Off a bye week

Eagles Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/9	KC	PHI +1.5 KC -1.5	49.5	PHI	-	-	-
1/26	PHI [ 55 ]	PHI -6 WAS +6	46.5	WAS [ 23 ]	+32	+26	+31.5
1/19	PHI [ 28 ]	PHI -7 LAR +7	43.5	LAR [ 22 ]	+6	-1	+6.5
1/12	PHI [ 22 ]	PHI -5.5 GB +5.5	46.5	GB [ 10 ]	+12	+6.5	-14.5
1/5	PHI [ 20 ]	PHI -3.5 NYG +3.5	35.5	NYG [ 13 ]	+7	+3.5	-2.5
12/29	PHI [ 41 ]	PHI -7.5 DAL +7.5	37.5	DAL [ 7 ]	+34	+26.5	+10.5
12/22	WAS [ 36 ]	PHI -4 WAS +4	47	PHI [ 33 ]	-3	-7	+22
12/15	PHI [ 27 ]	PHI -5.5 PIT +5.5	43	PIT [ 13 ]	+14	+8.5	-3
12/8	PHI [ 22 ]	PHI -14 CAR +14	44.5	CAR [ 16 ]	+6	-8	-6.5
12/1	BAL [ 19 ]	PHI +3 BAL -3	50	PHI [ 24 ]	+5	+8	-7

Chiefs Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
2/9	PHI	KC -1.5 PHI +1.5	49.5	KC	-	-	-
1/26	KC [ 32 ]	KC -1.5 BUF +1.5	49.5	BUF [ 29 ]	+3	+1.5	+11.5
1/18	KC [ 23 ]	KC -9.5 HOU +9.5	41.5	HOU [ 14 ]	+9	-0.5	-4.5
1/5	DEN [ 38 ]	KC +10.5 DEN -10.5	40.5	KC [ 0 ]	-38	-27.5	-2.5
12/25	PIT [ 10 ]	KC -2 PIT +2	46	KC [ 29 ]	+19	+17	-7
12/21	KC [ 27 ]	KC -3.5 HOU +3.5	43	HOU [ 19 ]	+8	+4.5	+3
12/15	CLE [ 7 ]	KC -4.5 CLE +4.5	41.5	KC [ 21 ]	+14	+9.5	-13.5
12/8	KC [ 19 ]	KC -4.5 LAC +4.5	43	LAC [ 17 ]	+2	-2.5	-7
11/29	KC [ 19 ]	KC -13.5 LV +13.5	42	LV [ 17 ]	+2	-11.5	-6
11/24	CAR [ 27 ]	KC -11 CAR +11	43	KC [ 30 ]	+3	-8	+14

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin		Yds	Rush	Rec	Plays	Yds/Play	Yds/Pt	Int	Fum
2/9	PHI	KC -1.5 PHI +1.5	49.5	KC	-	-	-	KC PHI	-	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
11/20	KC [ 17 ]	KC -2.5 PHI +2.5	46.5	PHI [ 21 ]	-4	-6.5	-8.5	KC PHI	345 264	168 114	177 150	75 54	4.6 4.9	20.3 16.4	1 1	1 1
2/12	PHI [ 35 ]	KC +1.5 PHI -1.5	51.5	KC [ 38 ]	+3	+4.5	+21.5	KC PHI	340 419	158 115	182 304	55 74	6.2 5.7	8.9 9.7	0 0	1 2
10/3	PHI [ 30 ]	KC -7 PHI +7	54.5	KC [ 42 ]	+12	+5	+17.5	KC PHI	478 490	200 103	278 387	63 73	7.6 6.7	11.4 15.9	0 1	1 2
9/17	KC [ 27 ]	KC -4 PHI +4	46.5	PHI [ 20 ]	+7	+3	+0.5	KC PHI	363 440	112 107	251 333	55 72	6.6 6.1	13.4 18.2	1 0	0 3
9/19	PHI [ 16 ]	KC +3 PHI -3	50.5	KC [ 26 ]	+10	+13	-8.5	KC PHI	419 465	146 264	273 201	83 65	5 7.2	16.1 26.2	2 0	0 4

Performance

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
1 (1)	Win Percentage	1 (2)
66.67 (3)	ATS Win%	50 (12)
66.67 (2)	OU%	50 (9)
35 (1)	PPG	27.5 (7)
18.33 (1)	PPG Allowed	21.5 (9)

Possession

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
42.33 (14)	Plays/game	58.5 (8)
47.33 (1)	Plays/game Allowed	69 (14)
30.66 (7)	Time of Possession (min)	28.02 (14)
29.34 (6)	Time of Possession Allowed	31.98 (14)
1.63 (14)	Avg. Time/Drive (min)	2.74 (3)
1.73 (1)	Avg. Time/Drive Allowed	3.35 (14)

Downs

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
20 (9)	First Downs	21 (6)
12 (9)	Third Downs	10 (14)
36.11 (14)	Third Conv. Rate	45 (5)
1 (10)	Fourth Downs	1.5 (4)
100 (1)	Fourth Conv. Rate	66.67 (5)

Yardage Overview

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
396 (3)	Total Yds	303.5 (14)
377 (13)	Total Yds Allowed	389 (14)
22.11 (14)	Avg. Yds/Drive	32.57 (5)
20.28 (1)	Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed	38.44 (14)
9.35 (1)	Avg. Yds/Play	5.19 (14)
7.96 (14)	Avg. Yds/Play Allowed	5.64 (6)
3.33 (3)	Sacks/game	5 (1)
3.67 (14)	Sacks Allowed	2.5 (8)

Rushing

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
227.67 (1)	Rush Yds	92.5 (14)
105.67 (7)	Rush Yds Allowed	148 (14)
6.57 (1)	Yds/Carry	3.25 (14)
4.46 (8)	Yds/Carry Allowed	4.85 (12)
60.1 (1)	Run%	52.8 (3)
36 (1)	Run% Allowed	49.6 (14)
0.67 (1)	Fumbles	1.5 (14)
3 (1)	Fumbles Forced	2.5 (2)

Receiving

Eagles (2 games)		Chiefs (3 games)
168.33 (14)	Rec Yds	211 (12)
271.33 (14)	Rec Yds Allowed	241 (9)
7.32 (11)	Yds/Pass	8.27 (2)
6.46 (1)	Yds/Pass Allowed	7.77 (14)
39.9 (14)	Pass%	47.2 (12)
64 (14)	Pass% Allowed	50.4 (1)
1.33 (13)	Int Thrown	0 (1)
0 (13)	Int Forced	0 (14)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	+Rest	-Rest
Eagles 1h	3-0-0	3-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	3-0-0
Eagles	3-0	3-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	3-0
Chiefs 1h	2-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-0-0
Chiefs	2-0	2-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	2-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	+Rest	-Rest
Eagles 1h	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Eagles	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Chiefs 1h	2-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-0-0
Chiefs	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	+Rest	-Rest
Eagles 1h	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Eagles	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Chiefs 1h	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0
Chiefs	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	+Rest	-Rest
Eagles 1h	1-1-1	1-1-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-1
Eagles	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Chiefs 1h	1-0-1	1-0-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-1
Chiefs	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	+Rest	-Rest
Eagles 1h	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Eagles	2-1-0	2-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	2-1-0
Chiefs 1h	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0
Chiefs	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-1-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Eagles	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	2-0-0 (100%)	0-1-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)
Chiefs	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)	0-0-0 (-)