Chiefs @ Eagles [ Eagles +1.5 / 49.5 ]

Chiefs | 17-2 (89.5%)
Eagles | 17-3 (85%)

Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our model gives the Eagles (+1.5) a 52.2% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (49.5) around 48.4% of the time. While we factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits, we don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variance.

Chiefs Situational Notes
Extended rest: Off a bye week

Eagles Situational Notes
Extended rest: Off a bye week

Chiefs Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/9PHIKC -1.5
PHI +1.5
49.5KC---
1/26KC [ 32 ]KC -1.5
BUF +1.5
49.5BUF [ 29 ]+3+1.5+11.5
1/18KC [ 23 ]KC -9.5
HOU +9.5
41.5HOU [ 14 ]+9-0.5-4.5
1/5DEN [ 38 ]KC +10.5
DEN -10.5
40.5KC [ 0 ]-38-27.5-2.5
12/25PIT [ 10 ]KC -2
PIT +2
46KC [ 29 ]+19+17-7
12/21KC [ 27 ]KC -3.5
HOU +3.5
43HOU [ 19 ]+8+4.5+3
12/15CLE [ 7 ]KC -4.5
CLE +4.5
41.5KC [ 21 ]+14+9.5-13.5
12/8KC [ 19 ]KC -4.5
LAC +4.5
43LAC [ 17 ]+2-2.5-7
11/29KC [ 19 ]KC -13.5
LV +13.5
42LV [ 17 ]+2-11.5-6
11/24CAR [ 27 ]KC -11
CAR +11
43KC [ 30 ]+3-8+14
Eagles Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/9KCPHI +1.5
KC -1.5
49.5PHI---
1/26PHI [ 55 ]PHI -6
WAS +6
46.5WAS [ 23 ]+32+26+31.5
1/19PHI [ 28 ]PHI -7
LAR +7
43.5LAR [ 22 ]+6-1+6.5
1/12PHI [ 22 ]PHI -5.5
GB +5.5
46.5GB [ 10 ]+12+6.5-14.5
1/5PHI [ 20 ]PHI -3.5
NYG +3.5
35.5NYG [ 13 ]+7+3.5-2.5
12/29PHI [ 41 ]PHI -7.5
DAL +7.5
37.5DAL [ 7 ]+34+26.5+10.5
12/22WAS [ 36 ]PHI -4
WAS +4
47PHI [ 33 ]-3-7+22
12/15PHI [ 27 ]PHI -5.5
PIT +5.5
43PIT [ 13 ]+14+8.5-3
12/8PHI [ 22 ]PHI -14
CAR +14
44.5CAR [ 16 ]+6-8-6.5
12/1BAL [ 19 ]PHI +3
BAL -3
50PHI [ 24 ]+5+8-7
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginYdsRushRecPlaysYds/PlayYds/PtIntFum
2/9KCPHI +1.5
KC -1.5
49.5PHI---PHI
KC		-
-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
11/20KC [ 17 ]PHI +2.5
KC -2.5
46.5PHI [ 21 ]+4+6.5-8.5PHI
KC		264
345		114
168		150
177		54
75		4.9
4.6		12.6
15.5		1
1		1
1
2/12KC [ 38 ]PHI -1.5
KC +1.5
51.5PHI [ 35 ]-3-4.5+21.5PHI
KC		419
340		115
158		304
182		74
55		5.7
6.2		12
11		0
0		2
1
10/3PHI [ 30 ]PHI +7
KC -7
54.5KC [ 42 ]-12-5+17.5PHI
KC		490
478		103
200		387
278		73
63		6.7
7.6		16.3
11.7		1
0		2
1
9/17KC [ 27 ]PHI +4
KC -4
46.5PHI [ 20 ]-7-3+0.5PHI
KC		440
363		107
112		333
251		72
55		6.1
6.6		22
16.3		0
1		3
0
9/19PHI [ 16 ]PHI -3
KC +3
50.5KC [ 26 ]-10-13-8.5PHI
KC		465
419		264
146		201
273		65
83		7.2
5		29.1
17.9		0
2		4
0

Performance
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
1 (2)Win Percentage1 (1)
50 (12)ATS Win%66.67 (3)
50 (9)OU%66.67 (2)
27.5 (7)PPG35 (1)
21.5 (9)PPG Allowed18.33 (1)

Possession
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
58.5 (8)Plays/game42.33 (14)
69 (14)Plays/game Allowed47.33 (1)
28.02 (14)Time of Possession (min)30.66 (7)
31.98 (14)Time of Possession Allowed29.34 (6)
2.74 (3)Avg. Time/Drive (min)1.63 (14)
3.35 (14)Avg. Time/Drive Allowed1.73 (1)

Downs
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
21 (6)First Downs20 (9)
10 (14)Third Downs12 (9)
45 (5)Third Conv. Rate36.11 (14)
1.5 (4)Fourth Downs1 (10)
66.67 (5)Fourth Conv. Rate100 (1)

Yardage Overview
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
303.5 (14)Total Yds396 (3)
389 (14)Total Yds Allowed377 (13)
32.57 (5)Avg. Yds/Drive22.11 (14)
38.44 (14)Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed20.28 (1)
5.19 (14)Avg. Yds/Play9.35 (1)
5.64 (6)Avg. Yds/Play Allowed7.96 (14)
5 (1)Sacks/game3.33 (3)
2.5 (8)Sacks Allowed3.67 (14)

Rushing
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
92.5 (14)Rush Yds227.67 (1)
148 (14)Rush Yds Allowed105.67 (7)
3.25 (14)Yds/Carry6.57 (1)
4.85 (12)Yds/Carry Allowed4.46 (8)
52.8 (3)Run%60.1 (1)
49.6 (14)Run% Allowed36 (1)
1.5 (14)Fumbles0.67 (1)
2.5 (2)Fumbles Forced3 (1)

Receiving
Chiefs
(3 games)		 Eagles
(2 games)
211 (12)Rec Yds168.33 (14)
241 (9)Rec Yds Allowed271.33 (14)
8.27 (2)Yds/Pass7.32 (11)
7.77 (14)Yds/Pass Allowed6.46 (1)
47.2 (12)Pass%39.9 (14)
50.4 (1)Pass% Allowed64 (14)
0 (1)Int Thrown1.33 (13)
0 (14)Int Forced0 (13)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h2-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-0
Chiefs 2-02-00-00-00-00-02-0
Eagles 1h3-0-03-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-03-0-0
Eagles 3-03-00-00-00-00-03-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h2-0-02-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-0-0
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Eagles 1h2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0
Eagles 2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Eagles 1h2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0
Eagles 2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-0-11-0-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-0-1
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Eagles 1h1-1-11-1-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-1
Eagles 2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Chiefs 1h1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Chiefs 1-1-01-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-01-1-0
Eagles 1h2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0
Eagles 2-1-02-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-02-1-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Chiefs0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Eagles0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)