Cavaliers @ Pacers [ Pacers +5.5 / 232 ]

Cavaliers | 68-20 (77.3%)
Pacers | 56-33 (62.9%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pacers (+5.5) a 47.7-48.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 232 around 41.8-48.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pacers have a 50.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 41.3% chance of going over the total.

Cavaliers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Pacers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Cavaliers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/11INDCLE -5
IND +5
230.5CLE---
5/9INDCLE -5.5
IND +5.5
232CLE---
5/6CLE [ 119 ]CLE -5.5
IND +5.5
227IND [ 120 ]-1-6.5+12
5/4CLE [ 112 ]CLE -8.5
IND +8.5
229IND [ 121 ]-9-17.5+4
4/28MIA [ 83 ]CLE -8.5
MIA +8.5
211.5CLE [ 138 ]+55+46.5+9.5
4/26MIA [ 87 ]CLE -5.5
MIA +5.5
212CLE [ 124 ]+37+31.5-1
4/23CLE [ 121 ]CLE -12
MIA +12
212.5MIA [ 112 ]+9-3+20.5
4/20CLE [ 121 ]CLE -12.5
MIA +12.5
216MIA [ 100 ]+21+8.5+5
4/13CLE [ 118 ]CLE +7
IND -7
227IND [ 126 ]-8-1+17
4/11NYK [ 102 ]CLE +3.5
NYK -3.5
223.5CLE [ 108 ]+6+9.5-13.5
Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/11INDIND +5
CLE -5
230.5CLE---
5/9INDIND +5.5
CLE -5.5
232CLE---
5/6CLE [ 119 ]IND +5.5
CLE -5.5
227IND [ 120 ]+1+6.5+12
5/4CLE [ 112 ]IND +8.5
CLE -8.5
229IND [ 121 ]+9+17.5+4
4/29IND [ 119 ]IND -8
MIL +8
222MIL [ 118 ]+1-7+15
4/27MIL [ 103 ]IND +4
MIL -4
226.5IND [ 129 ]+26+30+5.5
4/25MIL [ 117 ]IND +5
MIL -5
229.5IND [ 101 ]-16-11-11.5
4/22IND [ 123 ]IND -4
MIL +4
229MIL [ 115 ]+8+4+9
4/19IND [ 117 ]IND -6.5
MIL +6.5
227.5MIL [ 98 ]+19+12.5-12.5
4/13CLE [ 118 ]IND -7
CLE +7
227IND [ 126 ]+8+1+17
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
5/13CLE-
-		-IND----
-
-
-
-
5/11INDIND +5
CLE -5
230.5CLE----
-
-
-
-
5/9INDIND +5.5
CLE -5.5
232CLE----
-
-
-
-
5/6CLE [ 119 ]IND +5.5
CLE -5.5
227IND [ 120 ]+1+6.5+12101.1
118.6
117.7
1
239
5/4CLE [ 112 ]IND +8.5
CLE -8.5
229IND [ 121 ]+9+17.5+497.1
124.6
115.3
9.3
233
4/13CLE [ 118 ]IND -7
CLE +7
227IND [ 126 ]+8+1+17112.4
101.6
95.1
6.4
221
4/10IND [ 114 ]IND -9.5
CLE +9.5
234.5CLE [ 112 ]+2-7.5-8.599.8
114.3
112.3
2
226
1/14IND [ 117 ]IND +7.5
CLE -7.5
230CLE [ 127 ]-10-2.5+1499.8
117.3
127.3
-10
244
1/12CLE [ 93 ]IND +9
CLE -9
240IND [ 108 ]+15+24-3997.8
110.5
95.1
15.3
201
4/12CLE [ 129 ]IND +4
CLE -4
233IND [ 120 ]-9-5+16101.5
118.2
127.1
-8.9
249
3/18IND [ 103 ]IND -6.5
CLE +6.5
225CLE [ 108 ]-5-11.5-1493.4
110.3
115.6
-5.4
211

Efficiency
Cavaliers
(6 game/s)		 Pacers
(7 game/s)
0.67 (5)Win Percentage0.86 (1)
0.5 (6)ATS Win%0.71 (2)
0.83 (3)OU%0.71 (4)
-Strength of Schedule-
128.9 (1)Offensive Rating119.13 (3)
109.93 (15)Defensive Rating113.55 (20)
94.75 (10)Pace97.51 (4)
2.49 (3)A/TO Ratio2.31 (4)

Four Factors
Cavaliers
(6 game/s)		 Pacers
(7 game/s)
58.4 (2)EFG%59.01 (1)
55.77 (24)EFG% Allowed52.47 (20)
25.85 (9)FT Rate23.64 (14)
19.64 (12)FT Rate Allowed26.32 (21)
27.64 (6)OReb%18.48 (19)
23.29 (14)OReb% Allowed24.53 (19)
10.7 (13)TO Rate12.92 (15)
17.47 (2)TO Rate Forced12.49 (13)

Scoring
Cavaliers
(6 game/s)		 Pacers
(7 game/s)
122.5 (2)PPG118.57 (3)
103.83 (13)PPG Allowed111.71 (23)
19.5 (2)Pts off TO12.86 (16)
10.5 (12)Pts off TO Allowed13.86 (16)
18.17 (1)2nd Chance Pts9.71 (18)
12.67 (13)2nd Chance Pts Allowed15.29 (22)
11.33 (16)Fast Break Pts14.57 (7)
11.83 (17)Fast Break Pts Allowed8.86 (11)

Inside the Arc
Cavaliers
(6 game/s)		 Pacers
(7 game/s)
42 (9)Paint Attempts36 (15)
34 (12)Paint Attempts Allowed40.57 (20)
61.11 (2)Paint FG%59.52 (4)
60.29 (28)Paint FG% Allowed58.1 (23)
4.33 (19)Mid-Range Attempts15 (3)
11 (23)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed10.86 (22)
38.46 (15)Mid-Range FG%51.43 (2)
37.88 (15)Mid-Range FG% Allowed34.21 (13)

Three Point Shooting
Cavaliers
(6 game/s)		 Pacers
(7 game/s)
8.5 (12)Corner 3 Attempts9.29 (8)
11.67 (29)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8 (18)
35.29 (9)Corner 3 FG%52.31 (2)
38.57 (25)Corner 3 FG% Allowed37.5 (24)
33 (2)ATB3 Attempts26.14 (11)
25.67 (20)ATB3 Attempts Allowed29.57 (26)
39.9 (4)ATB3 FG%37.16 (8)
37.66 (23)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.3 (19)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h5-1-03-1-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Cavaliers 4-22-2-2-0---1-1-
Pacers 1h5-2-02-1-0----3-1-0------1-0-0
Pacers 6-13-0--3-1---1-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h5-1-03-1-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Cavaliers 3-3-01-3-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Pacers 1h5-2-02-1-0----3-1-0------1-0-0
Pacers 5-2-02-1-0----3-1-0------1-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h3-3-03-1-0--0-2-0------2-0-0--
Cavaliers 5-1-04-0-0--1-1-0------2-0-0--
Pacers 1h2-5-01-2-0----1-3-0------1-0-0
Pacers 5-2-02-1-0----3-1-0------1-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h5-1-03-1-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Cavaliers 5-1-03-1-0--2-0-0------1-1-0--
Pacers 1h4-2-12-1-0----2-1-1------1-0-0
Pacers 5-1-12-0-1----3-1-0------1-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h2-3-12-1-1--0-2-0------2-0-0--
Cavaliers 3-3-03-1-0--0-2-0------1-1-0--
Pacers 1h2-5-01-2-0----1-3-0------0-1-0
Pacers 3-4-02-1-0----1-3-0------0-1-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Cavaliers0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)
Pacers0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)