Thunder @ Nuggets [ Nuggets +6.5 / 232 ]

Thunder | 73-16 (82%)
Nuggets | 55-36 (60.4%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Nuggets (+6.5) a 46.5-31.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 232 around 44.5-47% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Nuggets have a 52.1% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 43.7% chance of going over the total.

Thunder Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Nuggets Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Thunder Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/11DENOKC -6.5
DEN +6.5
227.5OKC---
5/9DENOKC -6.5
DEN +6.5
232OKC---
5/7OKC [ 149 ]OKC -10
DEN +10
230DEN [ 106 ]+43+33+25
5/5OKC [ 119 ]OKC -10.5
DEN +10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]-2-12.5+11.5
4/26MEM [ 115 ]OKC -15
MEM +15
224OKC [ 117 ]+2-13+8
4/24MEM [ 108 ]OKC -10
MEM +10
230.5OKC [ 114 ]+6-4-8.5
4/22OKC [ 118 ]OKC -14.5
MEM +14.5
229.5MEM [ 99 ]+19+4.5-12.5
4/20OKC [ 131 ]OKC -13
MEM +13
231.5MEM [ 80 ]+51+38-20.5
4/13NOP [ 100 ]OKC -12.5
NOP +12.5
230.5OKC [ 115 ]+15+2.5-15.5
4/11UTA [ 111 ]OKC -9
UTA +9
234.5OKC [ 145 ]+34+25+21.5
Nuggets Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/11DENDEN +6.5
OKC -6.5
227.5OKC---
5/9DENDEN +6.5
OKC -6.5
232OKC---
5/7OKC [ 149 ]DEN +10
OKC -10
230DEN [ 106 ]-43-33+25
5/5OKC [ 119 ]DEN +10.5
OKC -10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]+2+12.5+11.5
5/3DEN [ 120 ]DEN -1.5
LAC +1.5
207LAC [ 101 ]+19+17.5+14
5/1LAC [ 111 ]DEN +6
LAC -6
213DEN [ 105 ]-60+3
4/29DEN [ 131 ]DEN +1.5
LAC -1.5
209LAC [ 115 ]+16+17.5+37
4/26LAC [ 99 ]DEN +6.5
LAC -6.5
211.5DEN [ 101 ]+2+8.5-11.5
4/24LAC [ 117 ]DEN +5.5
LAC -5.5
214DEN [ 83 ]-34-28.5-14
4/21DEN [ 102 ]DEN -1
LAC +1
217.5LAC [ 105 ]-3-4-10.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
5/13OKC-
-		-DEN----
-
-
-
-
5/11DENDEN +6.5
OKC -6.5
227.5OKC----
-
-
-
-
5/9DENDEN +6.5
OKC -6.5
232OKC----
-
-
-
-
5/7OKC [ 149 ]DEN +10
OKC -10
230DEN [ 106 ]-43-33+25103.4
102.5
144.1
-41.6
255
5/5OKC [ 119 ]DEN +10.5
OKC -10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]+2+12.5+11.5104.2
116.1
114.2
1.9
240
3/10OKC [ 127 ]DEN +9.5
OKC -9.5
240.5DEN [ 140 ]+13+22.5+26.598.4
142.3
129.1
13.2
267
3/9OKC [ 127 ]DEN +7.5
OKC -7.5
242DEN [ 103 ]-24-16.5-1297.5
105.6
130.2
-24.6
230
11/6DEN [ 124 ]DEN +7
OKC -7
224.5OKC [ 122 ]+2+9+21.5107.7
115.2
113.3
1.9
246
10/24DEN [ 87 ]DEN -2
OKC +2
227.5OKC [ 102 ]-15-17-38.599.6
87.3
102.4
-15.1
189
1/31OKC [ 105 ]DEN +1
OKC -1
227DEN [ 100 ]-5-4-2292.5
108.1
113.5
-5.4
205
12/29DEN [ 93 ]DEN -1.5
OKC +1.5
237.5OKC [ 119 ]-26-27.5-25.599
94
120.2
-26.3
212

Efficiency
Thunder
(6 game/s)		 Nuggets
(9 game/s)
0.83 (2)Win Percentage0.56 (8)
0.5 (6)ATS Win%0.5 (6)
0.5 (8)OU%0.56 (7)
-Strength of Schedule-
122.7 (2)Offensive Rating112.54 (9)
102.61 (11)Defensive Rating119.14 (26)
101.88 (1)Pace95.17 (9)
2.68 (2)A/TO Ratio1.53 (12)

Four Factors
Thunder
(6 game/s)		 Nuggets
(9 game/s)
53.93 (6)EFG%53.27 (9)
47.73 (11)EFG% Allowed56.02 (25)
28.5 (4)FT Rate26.06 (7)
27.79 (25)FT Rate Allowed25.74 (19)
26.45 (9)OReb%29.35 (3)
27.37 (24)OReb% Allowed23.82 (16)
9.84 (12)TO Rate15.6 (24)
18.92 (1)TO Rate Forced11.84 (17)

Scoring
Thunder
(6 game/s)		 Nuggets
(9 game/s)
124.67 (1)PPG109 (6)
104.83 (17)PPG Allowed114 (25)
27.33 (1)Pts off TO12.44 (18)
9.83 (11)Pts off TO Allowed18.67 (25)
16 (5)2nd Chance Pts16.56 (4)
15.33 (23)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.22 (18)
22 (1)Fast Break Pts14.11 (9)
9.83 (13)Fast Break Pts Allowed17.89 (30)

Inside the Arc
Thunder
(6 game/s)		 Nuggets
(9 game/s)
42.5 (8)Paint Attempts44.78 (6)
43.5 (23)Paint Attempts Allowed44.44 (25)
60.39 (3)Paint FG%53.85 (13)
48.66 (11)Paint FG% Allowed59.25 (26)
12 (7)Mid-Range Attempts11.56 (8)
10.17 (21)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed7.89 (14)
41.67 (9)Mid-Range FG%40.38 (11)
40.98 (22)Mid-Range FG% Allowed39.44 (19)

Three Point Shooting
Thunder
(6 game/s)		 Nuggets
(9 game/s)
9.5 (7)Corner 3 Attempts8.33 (14)
9.5 (25)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed10.33 (26)
42.11 (3)Corner 3 FG%34.67 (10)
31.58 (15)Corner 3 FG% Allowed38.71 (26)
31.17 (3)ATB3 Attempts21.33 (19)
24.17 (18)ATB3 Attempts Allowed23.78 (17)
31.55 (17)ATB3 FG%40.63 (2)
33.1 (15)ATB3 FG% Allowed36.92 (21)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h5-1-04-0-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--2-0-0--
Thunder 5-13-1-2-0-1-0-1-1-
Nuggets 1h3-6-01-2-01-0-0--1-4-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 5-42-11-0-2-3---1-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h4-2-04-0-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--2-0-0--
Thunder 3-3-03-1-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--
Nuggets 1h4-5-01-2-01-0-0--2-3-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-4-11-2-01-0-0--2-2-1------1-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h4-2-02-2-0--2-0-0--1-0-0--0-2-0--
Thunder 3-3-02-2-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--1-1-0--
Nuggets 1h4-5-00-3-01-0-0--3-2-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 5-4-01-2-01-0-0--3-2-0------1-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h3-3-03-1-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--
Thunder 2-4-02-2-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--
Nuggets 1h3-5-11-2-01-0-0--1-3-1------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-5-01-2-01-0-0--2-3-0------1-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Thunder 1h2-3-10-3-1--2-0-0--1-0-0--0-2-0--
Thunder 2-4-01-3-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--1-1-0--
Nuggets 1h4-5-00-3-01-0-0--3-2-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-5-00-3-01-0-0--3-2-0------0-1-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-3-0 (57.1%)
Nuggets1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)1-1-1 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)