Bucks @ Pacers [ Pacers -5.5 / 225.5 ]

Bucks | 49-34 (59%)
Pacers | 50-32 (61%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Pacers (-5.5) a 44.3-44.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 225.5 around 41.3-30.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Pacers have a 48.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 43.5% chance of going over the total.

Bucks Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems
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Pacers Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off an Overtime game

Baller Systems
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Bucks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22IND-
-		-MIL---
4/19INDMIL +5.5
IND -5.5
225.5MIL---
4/13MIL [ 140 ]MIL +9
DET -9
222.5DET [ 133 ]+7+16+50.5
4/11DET [ 119 ]MIL +4.5
DET -4.5
229.5MIL [ 125 ]+6+10.5+14.5
4/10MIL [ 136 ]MIL -16.5
NOP +16.5
223.5NOP [ 111 ]+25+8.5+23.5
4/8MIL [ 110 ]MIL +6
MIN -6
223MIN [ 103 ]+7+13-10
4/6NOP [ 107 ]MIL -6.5
NOP +6.5
218MIL [ 111 ]+4-2.50
4/5MIA [ 115 ]MIL +1
MIA -1
209.5MIL [ 121 ]+6+7+26.5
4/3PHI [ 113 ]MIL -11.5
PHI +11.5
228MIL [ 126 ]+13+1.5+11
4/1MIL [ 133 ]MIL -6.5
PHO +6.5
225.5PHO [ 123 ]+10+3.5+30.5
Pacers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22IND-
-		-MIL---
4/19INDIND -5.5
MIL +5.5
225.5MIL---
4/13CLE [ 118 ]IND -7
CLE +7
227IND [ 126 ]+8+1+17
4/11IND [ 115 ]IND -3.5
ORL +3.5
213ORL [ 129 ]-14-17.5+31
4/10IND [ 114 ]IND -9.5
CLE +9.5
234.5CLE [ 112 ]+2-7.5-8.5
4/8IND [ 104 ]IND -19
WAS +19
236WAS [ 98 ]+6-13-34
4/6DEN [ 120 ]IND +6
DEN -6
238.5IND [ 125 ]+5+11+6.5
4/4IND [ 140 ]IND -17.5
UTA +17.5
239UTA [ 112 ]+28+10.5+13
4/2IND [ 119 ]IND -15
CHA +15
223.5CHA [ 105 ]+14-1+0.5
3/31IND [ 111 ]IND -4
SAC +4
234.5SAC [ 109 ]+2-2-14.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
4/22IND-
-		-MIL----
-
-
-
-
4/19INDIND -5.5
MIL +5.5
225.5MIL----
-
-
-
-
3/15MIL [ 126 ]IND +3.5
MIL -3.5
237IND [ 119 ]-7-3.5+898.1
121.3
128.5
-7.1
245
3/11IND [ 115 ]IND -1.5
MIL +1.5
237.5MIL [ 114 ]+1-0.5-8.598.9
116.3
115.3
1
229
12/31IND [ 112 ]IND +2
MIL -2
229.5MIL [ 120 ]-8-6+2.586.4
129.7
139
-9.3
232
11/22MIL [ 129 ]IND +6
MIL -6
234IND [ 117 ]-12-6+12103.1
113.5
125.2
-11.6
246
5/2IND [ 120 ]IND -6
MIL +6
218MIL [ 98 ]+22+16092.8
129.3
105.6
23.7
218
4/30MIL [ 115 ]IND -4
MIL +4
215IND [ 92 ]-23-27-888.1
104.4
130.5
-26.1
207
4/28IND [ 126 ]IND -10
MIL +10
214.5MIL [ 113 ]+13+3+24.596.9
130
116.6
13.4
239
4/26IND [ 121 ]IND -6.5
MIL +6.5
224MIL [ 118 ]+3-3.5+1588.4
123.9
120.8
3.1
216.5
4/23MIL [ 108 ]IND +1
MIL -1
223IND [ 125 ]+17+18+1092.7
134.9
116.5
18.3
233

Efficiency
Bucks
(81 game/s)		 Pacers
(81 game/s)
0.58 (12)Win Percentage0.6 (7)
0.53 (9)ATS Win%0.43 (26)
0.53 (14)OU%0.55 (10)
-Strength of Schedule-
115.36 (13)Offensive Rating117.09 (6)
113.48 (12)Defensive Rating114.53 (15)
99.38 (12)Pace99.68 (10)
1.91 (14)A/TO Ratio2.22 (2)

Four Factors
Bucks
(81 game/s)		 Pacers
(81 game/s)
56.66 (3)EFG%56.35 (4)
53.24 (6)EFG% Allowed54.68 (19)
26.77 (3)FT Rate24.23 (18)
22.36 (6)FT Rate Allowed24.59 (20)
19.35 (30)OReb%21.29 (29)
23.74 (5)OReb% Allowed25.51 (19)
13.3 (5)TO Rate13.18 (4)
12.94 (26)TO Rate Forced14.84 (12)

Scoring
Bucks
(81 game/s)		 Pacers
(81 game/s)
115.21 (12)PPG117.26 (7)
112.79 (13)PPG Allowed115.1 (18)
15.36 (26)Pts off TO18.23 (12)
16.64 (9)Pts off TO Allowed15.84 (5)
11.58 (29)2nd Chance Pts11.17 (30)
13.54 (10)2nd Chance Pts Allowed13.74 (13)
13.43 (27)Fast Break Pts17.43 (5)
15.31 (15)Fast Break Pts Allowed13.16 (2)

Inside the Arc
Bucks
(81 game/s)		 Pacers
(81 game/s)
37.01 (28)Paint Attempts42 (19)
41.53 (7)Paint Attempts Allowed44.9 (27)
59.94 (6)Paint FG%60.38 (4)
56.57 (12)Paint FG% Allowed57.77 (20)
12.84 (2)Mid-Range Attempts11.27 (4)
10.25 (29)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.68 (13)
44.42 (4)Mid-Range FG%43.92 (6)
41.2 (13)Mid-Range FG% Allowed43.81 (24)

Three Point Shooting
Bucks
(81 game/s)		 Pacers
(81 game/s)
9.26 (19)Corner 3 Attempts9.25 (20)
9.51 (16)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9.28 (11)
43.73 (1)Corner 3 FG%40.99 (4)
39.48 (20)Corner 3 FG% Allowed38.56 (16)
26.94 (17)ATB3 Attempts26.2 (22)
29.4 (26)ATB3 Attempts Allowed26.56 (7)
36.89 (6)ATB3 FG%36 (13)
34.19 (5)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.87 (10)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h48-31-224-9-03-5-012-9-19-8-110-4-27-9-011-7-112-12-0
Bucks 47-3423-104-414-86-1212-48-812-711-13
Pacers 1h39-36-617-12-35-4-07-10-210-9-15-8-14-10-010-3-19-12-1
Pacers 49-3225-74-59-1011-98-66-811-312-10

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h41-38-217-14-23-5-010-12-011-7-09-6-17-9-08-10-111-12-1
Bucks 42-38-118-15-04-4-09-13-011-6-112-4-04-12-010-9-08-15-1
Pacers 1h35-45-112-19-16-3-06-13-011-9-06-8-03-11-09-5-07-15-0
Pacers 35-46-013-19-04-5-06-13-012-8-03-11-03-11-09-5-08-14-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h42-37-219-14-02-6-012-8-29-9-09-7-06-9-19-9-19-14-1
Bucks 42-37-221-11-12-6-012-9-17-11-011-5-07-8-18-11-012-11-1
Pacers 1h31-46-413-16-35-3-15-14-08-12-04-10-05-8-16-7-17-12-3
Pacers 44-36-115-16-16-3-08-11-015-5-07-7-07-7-07-7-09-12-1

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h44-37-018-15-02-6-013-9-011-7-08-8-06-10-07-12-011-13-0
Bucks 42-39-020-13-04-4-011-11-07-11-011-5-05-11-08-11-010-14-0
Pacers 1h35-46-010-22-06-3-06-13-013-7-03-11-04-10-08-6-07-15-0
Pacers 38-41-213-18-16-3-06-13-013-6-16-8-05-9-07-7-07-14-1

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h41-40-018-15-01-7-013-9-09-9-010-6-06-10-010-9-08-16-0
Bucks 45-36-021-12-03-5-013-9-08-10-011-5-011-5-09-10-013-11-0
Pacers 1h38-43-017-15-04-5-09-10-07-13-07-7-09-5-04-10-012-10-0
Pacers 42-39-015-17-07-2-08-11-012-8-07-7-08-6-08-6-012-10-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Pacers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)