Timberwolves @ Lakers [ Lakers -4.5 / 216.5 ]

Timberwolves | 49-33 (59.8%)
Lakers | 50-32 (61%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Lakers (-4.5) a 45-44.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 216.5 around 41.7-34.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Lakers have a 51% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 42.9% chance of going over the total.

Timberwolves Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Lakers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Timberwolves Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22LAL-
-		-MIN---
4/19LALMIN +4.5
LAL -4.5
216.5MIN---
4/13MIN [ 116 ]MIN -23
UTA +23
233.5UTA [ 105 ]+11-12-12.5
4/11MIN [ 117 ]MIN -21.5
BKN +21.5
219.5BKN [ 91 ]+26+4.5-11.5
4/10MEM [ 125 ]MIN -2.5
MEM +2.5
229.5MIN [ 141 ]+16+13.5+36.5
4/8MIL [ 110 ]MIN -6
MIL +6
223MIN [ 103 ]-7-13-10
4/5PHI [ 109 ]MIN -16
PHI +16
224.5MIN [ 114 ]+5-11-1.5
4/3BKN [ 90 ]MIN -14
BKN +14
218MIN [ 105 ]+15+1-23
4/1DEN [ 139 ]MIN +3.5
DEN -3.5
232.5MIN [ 140 ]+1+4.5+46.5
3/30MIN [ 123 ]MIN -8
DET +8
224.5DET [ 104 ]+19+11+2.5
Lakers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/22LAL-
-		-MIN---
4/19LALLAL -4.5
MIN +4.5
216.5MIN---
4/13POR [ 109 ]LAL +6
POR -6
217LAL [ 81 ]-28-22-27
4/11LAL [ 140 ]LAL -14
HOU +14
228HOU [ 109 ]+31+17+21
4/9DAL [ 97 ]LAL -4.5
DAL +4.5
227LAL [ 112 ]+15+10.5-18
4/8OKC [ 136 ]LAL +9
OKC -9
230LAL [ 120 ]-16-7+26
4/6OKC [ 99 ]LAL +9
OKC -9
230.5LAL [ 126 ]+27+36-5.5
4/4LAL [ 124 ]LAL -15.5
NOP +15.5
223NOP [ 108 ]+16+0.5+9
4/3LAL [ 116 ]LAL -1
GSW +1
229.5GSW [ 123 ]-7-8+9.5
3/31LAL [ 104 ]LAL -4
HOU +4
226.5HOU [ 98 ]+6+2-24.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
4/22LAL-
-		-MIN----
-
-
-
-
4/19LALLAL -4.5
MIN +4.5
216.5MIN----
-
-
-
-
2/27LAL [ 111 ]LAL -6
MIN +6
228MIN [ 102 ]+9+3-1594
118.1
108.6
9.6
213
12/13MIN [ 97 ]LAL +8.5
MIN -8.5
213.5LAL [ 87 ]-10-1.5-29.597.3
89.4
99.7
-10.3
184
12/2MIN [ 109 ]LAL +7.5
MIN -7.5
220LAL [ 80 ]-29-21.5-3194.2
84.9
115.7
-30.8
189
10/22LAL [ 110 ]LAL +1
MIN -1
224MIN [ 103 ]+7+8-1195.4
115.3
107.9
7.3
213
4/7LAL [ 117 ]LAL +2.5
MIN -2.5
218MIN [ 127 ]-10-7.5+26101.2
115.6
125.5
-9.9
244
3/10LAL [ 120 ]LAL -1
MIN +1
221.5MIN [ 109 ]+11+10+7.5100.1
119.9
108.9
11
229
12/30MIN [ 108 ]LAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
225.5LAL [ 106 ]-2+3.5-11.599.2
106.8
108.9
-2
214
12/21MIN [ 118 ]LAL +6
MIN -6
225LAL [ 111 ]-7-1+4100.7
110.2
117.1
-6.9
229
4/11LAL [ 108 ]LAL -8.5
MIN +8.5
233MIN [ 102 ]+6-2.5-2397.4
100.4
94.8
5.6
190.2

Efficiency
Timberwolves
(81 game/s)		 Lakers
(81 game/s)
0.59 (11)Win Percentage0.62 (5)
0.48 (19)ATS Win%0.58 (4)
0.55 (10)OU%0.51 (20)
-Strength of Schedule-
116.22 (9)Offensive Rating116.19 (11)
111.38 (7)Defensive Rating114.32 (13)
97.49 (23)Pace97.79 (21)
1.81 (17)A/TO Ratio1.88 (15)

Four Factors
Timberwolves
(81 game/s)		 Lakers
(81 game/s)
55.44 (10)EFG%55.82 (8)
53.21 (5)EFG% Allowed53.97 (13)
25.02 (10)FT Rate27.26 (1)
23.34 (11)FT Rate Allowed22.97 (9)
25.63 (14)OReb%23.19 (24)
25.01 (13)OReb% Allowed25.13 (15)
14.72 (18)TO Rate14.17 (14)
14.99 (10)TO Rate Forced13.9 (20)

Scoring
Timberwolves
(81 game/s)		 Lakers
(81 game/s)
114.27 (15)PPG113.79 (17)
109.35 (5)PPG Allowed112.21 (11)
17.73 (13)Pts off TO16.32 (23)
17.41 (16)Pts off TO Allowed16.83 (11)
15.02 (8)2nd Chance Pts12.33 (27)
13.49 (9)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.27 (17)
13.56 (26)Fast Break Pts15.07 (17)
14.32 (8)Fast Break Pts Allowed16.83 (25)

Inside the Arc
Timberwolves
(81 game/s)		 Lakers
(81 game/s)
41.22 (22)Paint Attempts40.38 (25)
43.44 (21)Paint Attempts Allowed43.14 (17)
57.02 (15)Paint FG%59.74 (7)
55.3 (7)Paint FG% Allowed57.21 (15)
6.42 (26)Mid-Range Attempts8.67 (14)
8.6 (11)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8 (7)
37.31 (29)Mid-Range FG%41.17 (15)
44.33 (25)Mid-Range FG% Allowed39.35 (5)

Three Point Shooting
Timberwolves
(81 game/s)		 Lakers
(81 game/s)
10.49 (8)Corner 3 Attempts9.16 (21)
8.81 (5)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9.43 (14)
40 (10)Corner 3 FG%40.3 (7)
37.68 (10)Corner 3 FG% Allowed37.17 (5)
29.02 (7)ATB3 Attempts27.07 (16)
26.86 (10)ATB3 Attempts Allowed28.33 (19)
37.43 (2)ATB3 FG%35.84 (15)
34.7 (8)ATB3 FG% Allowed35.29 (15)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h42-35-418-17-03-1-114-11-36-6-06-8-06-5-313-7-06-7-2
Timberwolves 48-3322-132-318-105-79-58-613-77-8
Lakers 1h50-29-225-6-15-4-011-6-09-13-19-5-09-5-011-8-112-6-0
Lakers 50-3125-76-310-79-149-59-512-810-8

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h37-40-413-20-24-1-010-16-29-3-04-10-05-7-210-10-07-7-1
Timberwolves 39-42-014-21-03-2-014-14-07-5-08-6-08-6-011-9-08-7-0
Lakers 1h49-31-123-9-06-3-08-8-112-11-08-6-09-5-011-9-011-6-1
Lakers 46-34-121-11-06-3-07-10-012-10-18-6-09-5-09-11-011-7-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h31-50-015-20-05-0-09-19-02-10-08-6-09-5-05-15-06-9-0
Timberwolves 44-36-120-15-04-1-013-15-06-5-19-4-19-5-010-10-010-5-0
Lakers 1h38-43-015-17-02-7-08-9-013-10-06-8-07-7-010-10-010-8-0
Lakers 41-40-017-15-03-6-08-9-013-10-07-7-05-9-010-10-08-10-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h28-52-113-21-14-1-06-22-04-8-05-9-09-5-06-14-06-9-0
Timberwolves 40-40-118-16-15-0-011-17-05-7-09-5-09-5-09-11-08-7-0
Lakers 1h43-38-018-14-05-4-08-9-012-11-08-6-08-6-010-10-012-6-0
Lakers 36-44-116-15-13-6-05-12-012-11-06-8-06-8-010-9-16-12-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Timberwolves 1h35-46-019-16-04-1-08-20-04-8-09-5-08-6-06-14-08-7-0
Timberwolves 49-31-120-14-13-2-019-9-06-6-09-4-110-4-012-8-011-4-0
Lakers 1h33-46-214-18-01-8-09-7-19-13-17-6-16-8-07-12-18-10-0
Lakers 41-40-016-16-03-6-09-8-013-10-07-7-06-8-012-8-09-9-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)
Lakers0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)