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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mavericks (-3) a 28.2-27% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 213.5 around 75-65.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mavericks have a 36.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 74.9% chance of going over the total.


Celtics Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
In-season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least 3 games)

Baller Systems
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Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/14DALBOS -1.5
DAL +1.5
210.5BOS---
6/12DALBOS +3
DAL -3
213.5BOS---
6/9BOS [ 105 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]+7+0.5-12
6/6BOS [ 107 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]+18+11.5-19
5/27IND [ 102 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 105 ]+3-4.5-15.5
5/25IND [ 111 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]+3-4.5+2.5
5/23BOS [ 126 ]BOS -9
IND +9
225IND [ 110 ]+16+7+11
5/21BOS [ 133 ]BOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND [ 128 ]+5-5+39.5
5/15BOS [ 113 ]BOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE [ 98 ]+15+0.5+6.5
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5

Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/14DALDAL +1.5
BOS -1.5
210.5BOS---
6/12DALDAL -3
BOS +3
213.5BOS---
6/9BOS [ 105 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]-7-0.5-12
6/6BOS [ 107 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]-18-11.5-19
5/30MIN [ 103 ]DAL +4.5
MIN -4.5
209.5DAL [ 124 ]+21+25.5+17.5
5/28DAL [ 100 ]DAL -1.5
MIN +1.5
210.5MIN [ 105 ]-5-6.5-5.5
5/26DAL [ 116 ]DAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
207.5MIN [ 107 ]+9+6.5+15.5
5/24MIN [ 108 ]DAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]+1+6.5+10
5/22MIN [ 105 ]DAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL [ 108 ]+3+7+6
5/18DAL [ 117 ]DAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC [ 116 ]+1-2.5+23.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
6/17BOSDAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
209.5DAL--------
6/14DALDAL +1.5
BOS -1.5
210.5BOS--------
6/12DALDAL -3
BOS +3
213.5BOS--------
6/9BOS [ 105 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]-7-0.5-12111.2105.8113.3-7.6203
6/6BOS [ 107 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]-18-11.5-19109.497.6117.4-19.7196
3/1BOS [ 138 ]DAL +10
BOS -10
235.5DAL [ 110 ]-28-18+12.5117.2112.6141.3-28.7248
1/22DAL [ 110 ]DAL +2.5
BOS -2.5
240BOS [ 119 ]-9-6.5-11120.6109.5118.4-9229
1/5DAL [ 95 ]DAL +3
BOS -3
231.5BOS [ 124 ]-29-26-12.5116.897.6127.3-29.8219
11/23BOS [ 125 ]DAL +6
BOS -6
221DAL [ 112 ]-13-7+16117.8114.1127.3-13.2237


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h13-1-28-0-20-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 14-28-20-06-00-00-00-00-00-0
Mavericks 1h8-9-23-3-20-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 12-75-30-01-16-30-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h9-7-05-5-00-0-04-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-6-25-3-20-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h9-10-03-5-00-0-01-1-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 11-7-14-4-00-0-01-1-06-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h7-8-14-5-10-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-8-06-4-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h8-11-03-5-00-0-00-2-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-10-04-4-00-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h10-6-07-3-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-9-06-4-00-0-01-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h6-13-01-7-00-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-10-04-4-00-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Celtics 1h7-9-04-6-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-9-05-5-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 1h9-10-03-5-00-0-01-1-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 8-11-05-3-00-0-01-1-02-7-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-2-0 (33.3%)4-3-0 (57.1%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)3-3-0 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)