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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-6.5) a 59.7-46.7% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 215 around 71.8-66.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 68.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 72% chance of going over the total.


Mavericks Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Celtics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/9BOSDAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL---
6/6BOSDAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL---
5/30MIN [ 103 ]DAL +4.5
MIN -4.5
209.5DAL [ 124 ]+21+25.5+17.5
5/28DAL [ 100 ]DAL -1.5
MIN +1.5
210.5MIN [ 105 ]-5-6.5-5.5
5/26DAL [ 116 ]DAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
207.5MIN [ 107 ]+9+6.5+15.5
5/24MIN [ 108 ]DAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]+1+6.5+10
5/22MIN [ 105 ]DAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL [ 108 ]+3+7+6
5/18DAL [ 117 ]DAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC [ 116 ]+1-2.5+23.5
5/15OKC [ 92 ]DAL +4.5
OKC -4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]+12+16.5-17
5/13DAL [ 96 ]DAL -1
OKC +1
213OKC [ 100 ]-4-5-17

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/9BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL---
6/6BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL---
5/27IND [ 102 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 105 ]+3-4.5-15.5
5/25IND [ 111 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]+3-4.5+2.5
5/23BOS [ 126 ]BOS -9
IND +9
225IND [ 110 ]+16+7+11
5/21BOS [ 133 ]BOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND [ 128 ]+5-5+39.5
5/15BOS [ 113 ]BOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE [ 98 ]+15+0.5+6.5
5/13CLE [ 102 ]BOS -8.5
CLE +8.5
206BOS [ 109 ]+7-1.5+5
5/11CLE [ 93 ]BOS -8
CLE +8
211BOS [ 106 ]+13+5-12
5/9BOS [ 94 ]BOS -13
CLE +13
212.5CLE [ 118 ]-24-37-0.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
6/17BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
209.5DAL--------
6/14DALBOS -1.5
DAL +1.5
210.5BOS--------
6/12DALBOS +3
DAL -3
213.5BOS--------
6/9BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL--------
6/6BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL--------
3/1BOS [ 138 ]BOS -10
DAL +10
235.5DAL [ 110 ]+28+18+12.5117.2141.3112.628.7248
1/22DAL [ 110 ]BOS -2.5
DAL +2.5
240BOS [ 119 ]+9+6.5-11120.6118.4109.59229
1/5DAL [ 95 ]BOS -3
DAL +3
231.5BOS [ 124 ]+29+26-12.5116.8127.397.629.8219
11/23BOS [ 125 ]BOS -6
DAL +6
221DAL [ 112 ]+13+7+16117.8127.3114.113.2237


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h8-7-23-3-20-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 12-55-30-01-16-10-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h11-1-26-0-20-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 12-26-20-06-00-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h8-9-03-5-00-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 11-6-04-4-00-0-01-1-06-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h8-6-04-4-00-0-04-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-6-14-3-10-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h8-9-03-5-00-0-00-2-05-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-8-04-4-00-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-6-14-3-10-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-6-06-2-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h6-11-01-7-00-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-8-04-4-00-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h9-5-06-2-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-7-06-2-00-0-01-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h8-9-03-5-00-0-01-1-04-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 8-9-05-3-00-0-01-1-02-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-7-04-4-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 7-7-05-3-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-3-0 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)5-1-0 (83.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)4-3-0 (57.1%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)