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Suns @ Bucks [ +2.5 / 227 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

March 17, 2024
Bucks | 51-37 (58%)
Suns | 49-37 (57%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bucks (+2.5) a 63-49.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 227 around 4.3-2.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bucks have a 70.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 4.3% chance of going over the total.

Suns Situational Notes

Bucks Situational Notes

Suns Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/20	PHO	PHO -8.5 PHI +8.5	220.5	PHI	-	-	-
3/17	MIL	PHO -2.5 MIL +2.5	227	PHO	-	-	-
3/15	CHA [ 96 ]	PHO -10 CHA +10	218	PHO [ 107 ]	+11	+1	-15
3/14	BOS [ 127 ]	PHO +5.5 BOS -5.5	226	PHO [ 112 ]	-15	-9.5	+13
3/11	CLE [ 111 ]	PHO -6.5 CLE +6.5	221	PHO [ 117 ]	+6	-0.5	+7
3/9	PHO [ 107 ]	PHO +5.5 BOS -5.5	225.5	BOS [ 117 ]	-10	-4.5	-1.5
3/7	PHO [ 120 ]	PHO -10.5 TOR +10.5	234	TOR [ 113 ]	+7	-3.5	-1
3/5	DEN [ 107 ]	PHO +8.5 DEN -8.5	224	PHO [ 117 ]	+10	+18.5	0
3/3	PHO [ 110 ]	PHO +4.5 OKC -4.5	234	OKC [ 118 ]	-8	-3.5	-6
3/2	PHO [ 109 ]	PHO -9 HOU +9	232	HOU [ 118 ]	-9	-18	-5

Bucks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
3/20	BOS	MIL +8 BOS -8	225.5	MIL	-	-	-
3/17	MIL	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO	-	-	-
3/14	MIL [ 114 ]	MIL -7 PHI +7	220	PHI [ 105 ]	+9	+2	-1
3/12	SAC [ 129 ]	MIL -2 SAC +2	236	MIL [ 94 ]	-35	-37	-13
3/10	LAC [ 117 ]	MIL -5.5 LAC +5.5	222.5	MIL [ 124 ]	+7	+1.5	+18.5
3/8	LAL [ 123 ]	MIL -3.5 LAL +3.5	226.5	MIL [ 122 ]	-1	-4.5	+18.5
3/6	GSW [ 125 ]	MIL +4.5 GSW -4.5	226.5	MIL [ 90 ]	-35	-30.5	-11.5
3/4	MIL [ 113 ]	MIL +3 LAC -3	222	LAC [ 106 ]	+7	+10	-3
3/1	CHI [ 97 ]	MIL -4 CHI +4	221.5	MIL [ 113 ]	+16	+12	-11.5
2/29	CHA [ 99 ]	MIL -11.5 CHA +11.5	219	MIL [ 111 ]	+12	+0.5	-9

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
3/17	MIL	MIL +2.5 PHO -2.5	227	PHO	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2/6	PHO [ 114 ]	MIL +3.5 PHO -3.5	243	MIL [ 106 ]	-8	-4.5	-23	122	104.3	112.1	-7.9	220
3/14	PHO [ 104 ]	MIL -1.5 PHO +1.5	231.5	MIL [ 116 ]	+12	+10.5	-11.5	120.2	115.8	103.8	12	220
2/26	MIL [ 104 ]	MIL -3 PHO +3	231.5	PHO [ 101 ]	+3	0	-26.5	113.9	109.6	106.4	3.2	205

Filters

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Efficiency

Suns (last 67 games)		Bucks (last 67 games)
0.59 (10)	Win Percentage	0.6 (8)
37.5 (29)	ATS Win%	42.42 (27)
48.44 (18)	OU%	48.48 (17)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
117.68 (10)	Offensive Rating	118.36 (7)
114.64 (12)	Defensive Rating	115.75 (15)
98.4 (15)	Pace	99.89 (9)
1.82 (23)	A/TO Ratio	2.05 (11)

Four Factors

Suns (last 67 games)		Bucks (last 67 games)
56.52 (6)	EFG%	56.76 (4)
53.65 (7)	EFG% Allowed	53.85 (9)
27.28 (3)	FT Rate	27 (6)
23.07 (6)	FT Rate Allowed	23.4 (8)
24.97 (11)	OReb%	21.83 (27)
24.47 (18)	OReb% Allowed	22.83 (5)
15.03 (25)	TO Rate	12.85 (6)
12.92 (25)	TO Rate Forced	11.96 (29)

Scoring

Suns (last 67 games)		Bucks (last 67 games)
116.4 (12)	PPG	118.98 (6)
113.38 (14)	PPG Allowed	116.35 (18)
15.9 (22)	Pts off TO	14.54 (29)
18.19 (25)	Pts off TO Allowed	14.96 (6)
12.84 (23)	2nd Chance Pts	13.07 (21)
14.06 (20)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.67 (13)
13.36 (21)	Fast Break Pts	12.68 (24)
14.49 (19)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.63 (9)

Inside the Arc

Suns (last 67 games)		Bucks (last 67 games)
39.81 (27)	Paint Attempts	38.49 (30)
44.15 (20)	Paint Attempts Allowed	44.46 (21)
59.13 (9)	Paint FG%	61.28 (1)
56.32 (11)	Paint FG% Allowed	57.35 (14)
13.79 (2)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.95 (4)
10.56 (21)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.12 (30)
0.48 (2)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (7)
0.38 (1)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.42 (18)

Three Point Shooting

Suns (last 67 games)		Bucks (last 67 games)
8.38 (22)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.13 (7)
9.17 (20)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	7.85 (7)
40.5 (9)	Corner 3 FG%	41.16 (6)
36.07 (2)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.8 (3)
24.16 (22)	ATB3 Attempts	27.82 (8)
26.6 (21)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	27.28 (23)
37.25 (7)	ATB3 FG%	35.99 (15)
36.94 (23)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.54 (12)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	39-26-2	19-11-0	1-4-0	12-6-2	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	39-28	21-9	0-5	13-7	5-7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Bucks 1h	38-27-1	22-9-0	1-1-0	13-13-0	2-4-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	43-24	24-7	2-0	16-11	1-6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	38-29-0	18-12-0	1-4-0	12-8-0	7-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	25-39-3	11-17-2	0-5-0	8-11-1	6-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	28-33-5	18-10-3	1-1-0	6-18-2	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	28-38-1	12-18-1	2-0-0	12-15-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	29-37-1	15-15-0	2-3-0	9-11-0	3-8-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	31-36-0	15-15-0	2-3-0	11-9-0	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	28-38-0	13-18-0	0-2-0	13-13-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	33-33-1	18-13-0	0-2-0	14-12-1	1-6-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	37-29-1	16-13-1	1-4-0	12-8-0	8-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	31-35-1	13-17-0	1-3-1	12-8-0	5-7-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	27-38-1	14-17-0	1-1-0	12-14-0	0-6-1	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	34-33-0	18-13-0	1-1-0	13-14-0	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Suns 1h	28-38-1	12-17-1	4-1-0	9-11-0	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Suns	33-33-1	17-13-0	3-2-0	10-9-1	3-9-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks 1h	31-34-1	13-17-1	0-2-0	15-11-0	3-4-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Bucks	37-28-2	19-12-0	0-2-0	16-9-2	2-5-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Bucks	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)	13-12-0 (52%)	4-8-1 (33.3%)	5-10-0 (33.3%)
Suns	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	5-8-0 (38.5%)	2-6-1 (25%)	12-15-1 (44.4%)	0-5-0 (0%)	4-6-1 (40%)