Braves @ Pirates [ Pirates +190 / 8 ]

Braves | 19-20 (48.7%) Chris Sale (L) | 1-3 | WHIP: 1.41 | ERA: 3.97
Pirates | 13-27 (32.5%) Carmen Mlodzinski (R) | 1-3 | WHIP: 1.54 | ERA: 5.20

Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Braves
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Bullpen:
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Team Batting:
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Matchup:
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Pirates
Starting Pitcher:
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Bullpen:
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Matchup:
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Braves Situational Notes
Game off extra innings

Baller Systems
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Pirates Situational Notes
Game off demoralizing loss (led after 8th)
Game off extra innings

Baller Systems
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Braves Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
5/12ATL [ 4 ]Grant Holmes (R)ATL -172
WSN +160		8.5WSN [ 3 ]Jake Irvin (R)
5/11PIT [ 4 ]Carmen Mlodzinski (R)ATL -230
PIT +190		8ATL [ 3 ]Chris Sale (L)
5/10PIT [ 2 ]Andrew Heaney (L)ATL -152
PIT +130		9ATL [ 3 ]AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
5/9PIT [ 3 ]Bailey Falter (L)ATL -148
PIT +126		8.5ATL [ 2 ]Bryce Elder (R)
5/8ATL [ 5 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)ATL -205
CIN +172		8CIN [ 4 ]Nick Lodolo (L)
5/7ATL [ 3 ]Grant Holmes (R)ATL -104
CIN +102		7.5CIN [ 4 ]Hunter Greene (R)
5/6ATL [ 2 ]Chris Sale (L)ATL -220
CIN +184		8CIN [ 1 ]Andrew Abbott (L)
5/5ATL [ 4 ]AJ Smith-Shawver (R)ATL -134
CIN +114		8.5CIN [ 0 ]Brady Singer (R)
5/4ATL [ 4 ]Bryce Elder (R)ATL +116
LAD -136		9LAD [ 3 ]Dustin May (R)
5/3ATL [ 3 ]Spencer Schwellenbach (R)ATL -105
LAD +105		8.5LAD [ 10 ]Roki Sasaki (R)
Pirates Schedule
Home Starter Line Total Away Starter
5/12NYM [ 4 ]David Peterson (L)PIT +118
NYM -166		7PIT [ 3 ]Paul Skenes (R)
5/11PIT [ 4 ]Carmen Mlodzinski (R)PIT +190
ATL -230		8ATL [ 3 ]Chris Sale (L)
5/10PIT [ 2 ]Andrew Heaney (L)PIT +128
ATL -154		9ATL [ 3 ]AJ Smith-Shawver (R)
5/9PIT [ 3 ]Bailey Falter (L)PIT +126
ATL -148		8.5ATL [ 2 ]Bryce Elder (R)
5/7STL [ 5 ]Sonny Gray (R)PIT +158
STL -188		7.5PIT [ 0 ]Mitch Keller (R)
5/6STL [ 2 ]Matthew Liberatore (L)PIT -118
STL -100		7PIT [ 1 ]Paul Skenes (R)
5/5STL [ 6 ]Miles Mikolas (R)PIT +110
STL -130		8.5PIT [ 3 ]Carmen Mlodzinski (R)
5/4PIT [ 0 ]Andrew Heaney (L)PIT -108
SDP -108		9SDP [ 4 ]Stephen Kolek (R)
5/3PIT [ 1 ]Bailey Falter (L)PIT +100
SDP +105		9SDP [ 2 ]Randy Vasquez (R)
5/2PIT [ 4 ]Mitch Keller (R)PIT +130
SDP -134		7.5SDP [ 9 ]Dylan Cease (R)

Chris Sale Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
5/6ATL [ 2 ]CIN [ 1 ]-22086.671025000Andrew Abbott (L)
4/30COL [ 2 ]ATL [ 1 ]-2701071005122Chase Dollander (R)
4/25ARI [ 2 ]ATL [ 8 ]-1308.55425011Zac Gallen (R)
4/19ATL [ 4 ]MIN [ 3 ]-2257.54.33836122Justin Topa (R)
4/13TBR [ 8 ]ATL [ 3 ]-1748.54.33736134Joe Boyle (R)
5.477.825.40.61.61.8
Carmen Mlodzinski Last 5 Starts
H A Line Total IP K BB Hits HR ER Runs Opp Starter
5/5STL [ 6 ]PIT [ 3 ]1108.54.67204222Miles Mikolas (R)
4/30PIT [ 4 ]CHC [ 3 ]1468.54416022Matthew Boyd (L)
4/24LAA [ 4 ]PIT [ 3 ]14295415133Tyler Anderson (L)
4/18PIT [ 7 ]CLE [ 10 ]1108.54029155Luis Ortiz (R)
4/13CIN [ 4 ]PIT [ 0 ]1547.54.33425044Hunter Greene (R)
4.42.81.25.80.83.23.2
Splits by Starter, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Sale F53-3-2 (50%)0-1-2 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)
Chris Sale4-4 (50%)3-0 (100%)1-3 (25%)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)
Carmen Mlodzinski F52-4-1 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)1-2-1 (33.3%)
Carmen Mlodzinski2-5 (28.6%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)2-1 (66.7%)0-4 (0%)

Splits by Starter, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Sale F52-5-1 (28.6%)1-1-1 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)
Chris Sale4-4-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-1-0 (75%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)
Carmen Mlodzinski F56-1-0 (85.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-0-0 (100%)3-1-0 (75%)
Carmen Mlodzinski3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-3-0 (25%)

Splits vs. xHP, Win/Loss
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Braves vs. RHP F511-17-5 (39.3%)4-6-3 (40%)5-5-1 (50%)1-1-0 (50%)1-5-1 (16.7%)
Braves vs. RHP15-18 (45.5%)8-5 (61.5%)4-7 (36.4%)1-1 (50%)2-5 (28.6%)
Pirates vs. LHP F52-5-2 (28.6%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-1 (-)1-3-0 (25%)0-1-1 (0%)
Pirates vs. LHP3-6 (33.3%)1-1 (50%)0-1 (0%)2-2 (50%)0-2 (0%)

Splits vs. xHP, Over/Under
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Braves vs. RHP F515-16-2 (48.4%)6-6-1 (50%)6-5-0 (54.5%)0-1-1 (0%)3-4-0 (42.9%)
Braves vs. RHP13-17-3 (43.3%)6-6-1 (50%)5-6-0 (45.5%)0-2-0 (0%)2-3-2 (40%)
Pirates vs. LHP F55-4-0 (55.6%)0-2-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)3-1-0 (75%)2-0-0 (100%)
Pirates vs. LHP4-5-0 (44.4%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)3-1-0 (75%)0-2-0 (0%)

Run Line (-1.5 if Fav, +1.5 if Dog)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Sale2-6 (25%)1-2 (33.3%)1-3 (25%)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)
Braves18-22 (45%)7-9 (43.8%)5-9 (35.7%)2-0 (100%)4-4 (50%)
Carmen Mlodzinski3-4 (42.9%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)2-1 (66.7%)1-3 (25%)
Pirates14-25 (35.9%)2-7 (22.2%)1-4 (20%)6-5 (54.5%)5-9 (35.7%)
  • Excludes games when teams are PK (no run line)
YRFI/NRFI (Yes/No Run First Inning)
OverallHome FavAway FavHome DogAway Dog
Chris Sale4-4 (50%)2-1 (66.7%)2-2 (50%)0-0 (-)0-1 (0%)
Braves22-18 (55%)8-8 (50%)6-8 (42.9%)1-1 (50%)7-1 (87.5%)
Carmen Mlodzinski5-2 (71.4%)0-0 (-)0-0 (-)3-0 (100%)2-2 (50%)
Pirates17-23 (42.5%)4-5 (44.4%)1-4 (20%)4-7 (36.4%)7-7 (50%)


Batting Matchup
BravesPirates
41TG42
3.9R/G3.1
43HR29
0.238AVG0.22
26SB46
6CS10
BravesPirates
0.143ISO0.106
0.285BABIP0.274
0.31OBP0.301
0.381SLG0.326
0.308wOBA0.283
93wRC+76
BravesPirates
8.9BB%9.5
22.3K%23.1
0.4BB/K0.41
9.4Barrel%8.4
42.3HardHit%40.8
4.6WAR-0.1

Pitching Matchup
Chris SaleCarmen Mlodzinski
9G8
9GS8
47.2IP36.1
5.2IP/G4.5
1W1
3L3
75.4LOB%70
Chris SaleCarmen Mlodzinski
12.08K/96.44
2.45BB/92.72
24.1K/BB%9.3
38GB%42.7
41.1FB%31.5
0.94HR/90.99
9.4HR/FB%10.3
Chris SaleCarmen Mlodzinski
0.392BABIP0.342
3.97ERA5.2
3.26xERA5.22
2.92FIP4.1
3.13xFIP4.19
1.41WHIP1.54
2.9SIERA4.46
1.2WAR0.5

Bullpen Matchup
BravesPirates
3.17BPU/G3.38
3.4IP/G3.5
12W5
7L10
7SV8
8BS8
73.8LOB%68.2
BravesPirates
9.17K/97.78
4.13BB/93.67
13.7K/BB%10.7
44.2GB%46
38.5FB%37.7
0.97HR/90.86
11.1HR/FB%8.8
BravesPirates
0.241BABIP0.281
3.62ERA4.29
3.94FIP4.03
3.91xFIP4.33
1.16WHIP1.3
3.68SIERA3.98
0.1WAR0.8