NBA Betting | themoneyballer.com

7:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Bucks: 22-30 (42.3%)

Thunder: 42-13 (76.4%)

Line:

Total:

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Thunder

54.58% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

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Algorithm	Recommendation
Defensive Differentials	Neutral
Broad Feature	Thunder
RMSE/MAE	Neutral
Cover Summary	Thunder
Pace Focused	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Thunder \| No Total Edge

Spread Net Units

Thunder

Total Net Units

Neutral

Notes

Bucks

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Baller System(s)

Back home favorites when both teams are unrested

Manage Systems

Bucks

In-season revenge

Double digit, in-season revenge

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Thunder

2nd game of a back-to-back

3rd game in 4 nights

4th game in 6 nights

Back home favorites when both teams are unrested

Notable Trends

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under away

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Thunder (Home)

The Thunder are 49.1% (27-28) against the spread

The Thunder are 46.4% (13-15) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 50% (27-27) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 46.4% (13-15) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 54.5% (30-25) to the over/under

The Thunder are 50% (14-14) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 53.7% (29-25) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 50% (14-14) to the over/under as a home fav

The Thunder are 53.3% (8-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Thunder are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Thunder are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Thunder are 60% (9-6) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Thunder are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Thunder are 57.1% (8-6) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Thunder are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Bucks (Away)

The Bucks are 43.4% (23-30) against the spread

The Bucks are 42.9% (12-16) against the spread away

The Bucks are 51.6% (16-15) against the spread as a dog

The Bucks are 50% (9-9) against the spread as an away dog

The Bucks are 39.6% (21-32) to the over/under

The Bucks are 32.1% (9-19) to the over/under away

The Bucks are 41.9% (13-18) to the over/under as a dog

The Bucks are 33.3% (6-12) to the over/under as an away dog

The Bucks are 35.7% (5-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Bucks are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Bucks are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Bucks are 35.7% (5-9) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Bucks are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Bucks are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Bucks are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/21/26	2025	Thunder	122	Away	Bucks	102	-12.5	225.5	-20	224
03/16/25	2024	Thunder	121	Away	Bucks	105	-5.5	233.5	-16	226
02/03/25	2024	Thunder	125	Home	Bucks	96	-18.0	226.5	-29	221
12/17/24	2024	Thunder	81	Home	Bucks	97	-5.5	215.0	+16	178
04/12/24	2023	Thunder	125	Home	Bucks	107	-14.5	223.5	-18	232
03/24/24	2023	Thunder	93	Away	Bucks	118	+2.5	233.0	+25	211
11/09/22	2022	Thunder	132	Home	Bucks	136	+1.0	213.0	+4	268
11/05/22	2022	Thunder	94	Away	Bucks	108	+6.5	219.5	+14	202
Thunder as Home (4 games)			115.8	-	-	109.0	-9.3	219.5	-6.8	224.8
All Games Avg (8 games)			111.6	-	-	108.6	-5.8	223.7	-3.0	220.3

Schedules

Bucks Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/22/26	2025	Bucks	-	home	Raptors	-	-	-	-	-
02/20/26	2025	Bucks	-	away	Pelicans	-	-	-	-	-
02/12/26	2025	Bucks	-	away	Thunder	-	+13.0	214.0	-	-
02/11/26	2025	Bucks	116	away	Magic	108	+11.5	219.5	-8	224
02/09/26	2025	Bucks	99	away	Magic	118	+9.5	220.5	+19	217
02/06/26	2025	Bucks	105	home	Pacers	99	+1.5	223.5	-6	204
02/04/26	2025	Bucks	141	home	Pelicans	137	+4.5	223.5	-4	278
02/03/26	2025	Bucks	131	home	Bulls	115	+1.5	222.5	-16	246
02/01/26	2025	Bucks	79	away	Celtics	107	+13.5	217.5	+28	186
01/29/26	2025	Bucks	99	away	Wizards	109	-1.5	223.5	+10	208
01/27/26	2025	Bucks	122	away	Seventysixers	139	+10.5	219.5	+17	261
01/25/26	2025	Bucks	0	home	Mavericks	0	-2.5	219.5	0	0
01/23/26	2025	Bucks	100	home	Nuggets	102	-9.0	213.5	+2	202
Away Games Avg (5 games)			103.0	-	-	116.2	+8.7	220.1	+13.2	219.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			99.2	-	-	103.4	+4.0	220.3	+4.2	202.6

Thunder Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/22/26	2025	Thunder	-	home	Cavaliers	-	-	-	-	-
02/20/26	2025	Thunder	-	home	Nets	-	-	-	-	-
02/12/26	2025	Thunder	-	home	Bucks	-	-13.0	214.0	-	-
02/11/26	2025	Thunder	136	away	Suns	109	-7.5	211.5	-27	245
02/09/26	2025	Thunder	119	away	Lakers	110	-7.5	222.5	-9	229
02/07/26	2025	Thunder	106	home	Rockets	112	-3.5	213.5	+6	218
02/04/26	2025	Thunder	106	away	Spurs	116	+9.5	221.5	+10	222
02/03/26	2025	Thunder	128	home	Magic	92	-11.5	222.5	-36	220
02/01/26	2025	Thunder	121	away	Nuggets	111	-7.5	225.5	-10	232
01/29/26	2025	Thunder	111	away	Timberwolves	123	-5.5	227.5	+12	234
01/27/26	2025	Thunder	104	home	Pelicans	95	-14.5	233.5	-9	199
01/25/26	2025	Thunder	101	home	Raptors	103	-11.5	225.5	+2	204
01/23/26	2025	Thunder	114	home	Pacers	117	-15.5	226.5	+3	231
Home Games Avg (5 games)			110.6	-	-	103.8	-11.3	224.3	-6.8	214.4
All Games Avg (10 games)			114.6	-	-	108.8	-7.5	223.0	-5.8	223.4

7:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Spread Net Units

Total Net Units

Notes

Bucks

Situational Factor(s)

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Manage Systems

Bucks

Thunder

Notable Trends

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

Bucks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Bucks Schedule

Thunder Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m. Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Spread Net Units

Total Net Units

Notes

Bucks

Situational Factor(s)

Thunder

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Manage Systems

Bucks

Thunder

Notable Trends

View All Records

Thunder (Home)

Bucks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Bucks Schedule

Thunder Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

7:30 p.m.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder