Updated: 10/08/25 4:35 p.m.
8:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury
Aces: 37-17 (68.5%)
Mercury: 32-21 (60.4%)
Bet Management
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Game ID: 2025-10-08_Mercury_Aces
Teams: Mercury (Home) vs Aces (Away)
Baller Index Our Exclusive wnba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
Under
54.29% probability
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Spread Net Units
Neutral
Total Net Units
2x
Under
Situational Systems
Aces
Basic Systems
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Baller Systems
Away + won previous matchup at home
Mercury
Basic Systems
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Double digit, in season revenge
Notable Trends
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Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Home Pts Away Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/05/25 2025 Aces 91 Mercury 78 -2.5 164.0 -13 169
10/03/25 2025 Aces 89 Mercury 86 -3.5 161.5 -3 175
08/21/25 2025 Aces 83 Mercury 61 -1.0 171.0 -22 144
08/15/25 2025 Mercury 83 Aces 86 -4.5 168.5 +3 169
06/29/25 2025 Mercury 81 Aces 84 -5.5 168.0 +3 165
06/15/25 2025 Aces 70 Mercury 76 +4.5 164.5 +6 146
09/01/24 2024 Mercury 79 Aces 97 +4.5 169.5 +18 176
06/13/24 2024 Mercury 99 Aces 103 +6.0 169.5 +4 202
05/21/24 2024 Aces 88 Mercury 98 -14.0 172.5 +10 186
05/14/24 2024 Aces 89 Mercury 80 -16.5 170.0 -9 169
Mercury as Home (4 games) 85.5 - 92.5 +0.1 168.9 +7.0 178.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 82.1 - 88.0 -3.3 167.9 -0.3 170.1
Schedules
Aces Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/10/25 2025 Aces - away Mercury - - - - -
10/08/25 2025 Aces - away Mercury - +4.5 163.5 - -
10/05/25 2025 Aces 91 home Mercury 78 -2.5 164.0 -13 169
10/03/25 2025 Aces 89 home Mercury 86 -3.5 161.5 -3 175
09/30/25 2025 Aces 107 home Fever 98 -8.0 158.5 -9 205
09/28/25 2025 Aces 83 away Fever 90 -3.0 161.0 +7 173
09/26/25 2025 Aces 84 away Fever 72 -4.5 162.5 -12 156
09/23/25 2025 Aces 90 home Fever 68 -9.0 164.0 -22 158
09/21/25 2025 Aces 73 home Fever 89 -9.0 165.5 +16 162
09/18/25 2025 Aces 74 home Storm 73 -8.5 159.5 -1 147
09/16/25 2025 Aces 83 away Storm 86 -5.0 162.0 +3 169
09/14/25 2025 Aces 102 home Storm 77 -6.0 161.5 -25 179
Away Games Avg (3 games) 83.3 - - 82.7 -4.2 161.8 -0.7 166.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 87.6 - - 81.7 -5.9 162.0 -5.9 169.3
Mercury Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/10/25 2025 Mercury - home Aces - - - - -
10/08/25 2025 Mercury - home Aces - -4.5 163.5 - -
10/05/25 2025 Mercury 78 away Aces 91 +2.5 164.0 +13 169
10/03/25 2025 Mercury 86 away Aces 89 +3.5 161.5 +3 175
09/30/25 2025 Mercury away Lynx - - 0 0
09/28/25 2025 Mercury 86 home Lynx 81 -4.5 155.5 -5 167
09/26/25 2025 Mercury 84 home Lynx 76 +4.0 159.0 -8 160
09/23/25 2025 Mercury 89 away Lynx 83 +7.0 159.0 -6 172
09/21/25 2025 Mercury 69 away Lynx 82 +9.5 159.0 +13 151
09/19/25 2025 Mercury 79 home Liberty 73 -2.5 155.5 -6 152
09/17/25 2025 Mercury 86 away Liberty 60 +4.5 159.5 -26 146
09/14/25 2025 Mercury 69 home Liberty 76 +2.5 164.0 +7 145
Home Games Avg (4 games) 79.5 - - 76.5 -0.1 158.5 -3.0 156.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 72.6 - - 71.1 +2.9 159.7 -1.5 143.7
Team Comparison Stats Click to load