Tag: mlb

Red Sox vs. Rays: Expect fireworks in Tampa

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: September 17, 2024
Time: 6:50 PM ET

Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (R)
Rays: Shane Baz (R)


The Red Sox and Rays kick off their series tonight with a total set at 7.5, which opens up a promising betting opportunity.

Key Trends (since 2024 unless otherwise noted):

  • When two teams are coming off road losses and facing each other in the first game of a series with a total of 7.5 or less, the over has hit in 9 out of 10 games (9-1).
  • The Red Sox are 7-2 to the over in the first game of a series when playing as road favorites.
  • The Rays have a 7-4 record to the over at home in the first game of a series following a loss.
  • In divisional matchups, when the Rays are underdogs with a total of 7.5 or less, they are 5-0-1 to the over.
  • Divisional matchups between two teams coming off losses are 7-3 to the over when the total is set at 7.5.


These trends suggest a strong lean towards the over in tonight’s game, given the recent performance patterns of both teams in similar situations.


Pick: Over 7.5

Money Baller Betting Report | Monday, September 16 

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to the Money Baller Betting Report. Yesterday went pretty well – 2-1-1 in MLB, 2-1 in WNBA, and another 1-1-1 in our NFL Week 2 Newsletter.


Money Baller Betting Report – MLB Betting Trends:


Check out our MLB Matchup Pages

  • Twins: 18-9 F5 O/U when Pablo Lopez starts.
  • Twins: 25-14-3 F5 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Guardians: 6-0-1 F5 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.
    • TMB thoughts: Trends point to a F5 over 4 in tonight’s game.

  • Mets: 21-8 ML when Sean Manaea starts.
  • In L30 days, Mets: 15-5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Nationals: 2-7 ML vs. LHP.
    • TMB thoughts: There are lots of nice stats favoring the Mets – we are considering a -1.5 RL at +115.

  • 2 Baller Systems active on Phillies: (1) First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak, (2) Fade home dog off long road trip.
    • TMB thoughts: At close to a pick em, we think the Phillies ML -110 has value.

We didn’t take any action on these, but here were some other interesting trends we noted:

  • Dodgers: 15-3 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.

  • Cubs: 21-6 ML when Shota Imanaga starts (10-2 ML as home favorites).

  • In L30 days, Tigers: 4-17-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.

  • Pirates: 14-3-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
  • Cardinals: 19-6 +1.5 RL as home underdogs.

Money Baller Betting Report | Friday, September 13

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to the Money Baller Betting Report.

You’ll see the format is slightly different today. Instead of writing out MLB trends for every single game, I am only listing ones that I would typically list in the featured trends section, and will incorporate the WNBA. This will be more sustainable and lead to most consistent and quicker posting as we continue to scale our website. Let me know your feedback!

Yesterday’s ML parlay did not hit as both sides failed to win. The Bills came through in dominant fashion, whether you bet them straight up or included them in a teaser.


Money Baller Betting Report – MLB Betting Trends:


Check out our MLB Matchup Pages

  • 2 Baller System active on Cardinals: (1) First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak, (2) Back small road underdog with better record
  • Cardinals: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘2’ as an underdog
    • We think there is value on the Cardinals ML +115 (consensus).





  • Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Cubs: 6-1 ML in last 7 games vs. LHP.
    • We are on the Cubs ML -142 (FanDuel).


  • Phillies: 11-1-2 F5 ML and 11-3 ML as home favorites when Aaron Nola starts.
  • In L30 days, Phillies: 6-0 ML vs. LHP.
  • Marlins: 4-21 ML as road underdogs vs. LHP.
  • Besides fading the Marlins on this trend, Edward Cabrera has been brutal this season with a 4.88 ERA and 4.86 FIP.
    • We are targeting the Nationals ML -144 (FanDuel) at a 0.5u size.


  • Astros: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Astros: 7-0 when Yusei Kikuchi starts.
    • If you are looking for a parlay piece, we think the Astros should be considered.



Money Baller Betting Report – WNBA Betting Trends:


Check out our WNBA Matchup Pages

  • Mystics: 25-9-2 1H ATS this season
  • Dream: 3-14-1 1H ATS at home
  • THREE Baller systems active on the Mystics
    • Needless to say, we are going Mystics 1H +2, one of the best bets in the WNBA.


  • Wings opponents have gone 30-6-1 to over on their Team Total this season (17-2 to the TT over when Wings are at home).
  • Wings are on the second game of a back-to-back, where we see overs are prevalent. Teams on the 2nd game of a B2B are 48-32-3 O/U since 2018.
    • I tackled this game and split my bet two ways: Storm Team Total Over 90 and Storm/Wings Over 173.

Top MLB Betting Trends | Monday, September 9

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to today’s top MLB Betting Trends! Featured trends went 1-2 yesterday. NFL newsletter went 1-0-1 (honestly, most of y’all who tailed should have gotten the Jaguars at +3.5, the most widely available line) with the Jets pending.

I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:


Featured MLB Betting Trends:

  • Twins: 7-1 ML as home favorites vs. LHP.
  • Twins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.
    • We like Twins RL -1.5 at +116 (FanDuel)




Here are the rest of today’s MLB Betting Trends:


Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

  • Phillies: 28-11-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Pirates: 8-1-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Paul Skenes starts.


Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

  • Yankees: 8-1-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Carlos Rodon starts.
  • Yankees: 27-13-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

  • Blue Jays: 3-11 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP.


Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

  • Orioles: 10-2-1 F5 O/U as road underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Red Sox: 26-13-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.


Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins

  • Twins: 7-1 ML as home favorites vs. LHP.
  • Twins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.


Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

  • White Sox: 6-25 ML vs. LHP.


Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  • In L30 days, Dodgers: 8-1 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Dodgers: 16-4-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.


Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full game bet)