Category: Commentary

Welcome to the NFL Week 9 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 12-12-2.

 
NFL Week 9 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 9 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Chargers: 1-11 O/U in L12 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-7 1H Team Total O/U and 1-6 Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-8 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.
• Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
• Panthers: 7-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Panthers: 1-7 1H ATS and full game ATS this season.
• Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
• Colts: 7-1 ATS this season
• Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
• Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
• Ravens: 7-1 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 2-9 ATS in L11 games as underdogs.
• Buccaneers: 7-1 1H O/U this season.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bears: 7-1 ATS In L8 home games.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Titans: 2-9 ATS in L11 road games.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Week 8 was a scoring bonanza in the NFL, with totals going 12-4 to the over and games averaging 48.6 points—well above the season’s average of 45.3. The median points scored also rose to 48.5, indicating that scoring wasn’t just skewed by a few high-flying games but was fairly widespread. With offensive fireworks lighting up the scoreboard, the season’s total record now stands at 65-57-2 to the over.

This recent surge has started to push market totals higher. After hovering around 44 points earlier in the season, totals have now jumped to an average of 45.5, reflecting the league’s trend toward higher-scoring outcomes. The increase signals that oddsmakers are adjusting to meet the season’s rising offensive production, likely influenced by a range of factors—from rule changes favoring offenses to injuries on the defensive side across multiple teams.

The week’s high-scoring matchups provide a window into what could be a continued shift in scoring trends, with dynamic offenses and fast-paced game scripts dictating many games. As the season progresses, bettors and fans alike may want to watch for further upward adjustments in totals as teams find their stride on the offensive end.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

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IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. There are no active games this week, but potentially the Cardinals and Giants in Week 10.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41-2 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. This is active on the Seahawks and Packers this week.

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V. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches

Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.

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VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

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VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 158-106-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Ravens and Titans in Week 9.

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NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

The Bears are looking to rebound after a heartbreaking loss on a Hail Mary, and they may be primed for a low-scoring showdown with the Cardinals. Chicago’s defense ranks among the top in the league, allowing just 17 points per game (4th fewest), and they’ve managed to keep every one of their seven opponents under their team total this season. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 29th in plays per game, which could further limit scoring opportunities in this matchup.

Two of our top under systems are active here, and there’s strong reason to think this game will favor a slow pace. If the Bears lean on the ground game with Swift, they could dominate time of possession and wear down Arizona’s defense, shortening the game. Both teams also have run-heavy tendencies due to weaknesses in their opponents’ run defenses, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives on both sides.

All signs point to a game script that keeps the score down, making the under a solid play in this matchup.

Pick: Cardinals/Bears Under 44.5

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

It’s not the flashiest pick, but we’re fading the red-hot Ravens in a tough situational spot. After a two-game road stint, Baltimore returns home sandwiched between two divisional matchups, with a big Thursday night game against the Bengals looming. This setup has all the signs of a classic letdown spot.

The Ravens’ defense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 24th in yards per pass play allowed and just 18th in Defensive DVOA—far from the intimidating Ravens defenses of the past. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense is showing up strong, ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA and allowing the 3rd fewest points per game along with the fewest yards per play in the league.

Lamar Jackson has been banged up, missing practice time this week, while Bo Nix has shown some potential. Given these factors, we’re backing the Broncos at +9.5 in this spot.


Pick: Broncos +9.5

Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

Welcome to the NFL Week 8 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 10-10-2.

 
NFL Week 8 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
• V. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VI. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 8 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Titans: 2-8 ATS in L10 road games.
• Chargers: 1-10 O/U in L11 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
• Seahawks: 6-1 Team Total O/U this season.
• Panthers: 6-1 1H O/U this season.
• Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
• Colts: 1-6 1H O/U this season.
• Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
• Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
• Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
• Eagles: 2-10 O/U in L12 road games.
• Eagles: 1-5 1H ATS this season.
• Patriots: 1-11-2 ATS in L14 home games.
• Ravens: 6-1 O/U this season (4-0 O/U on the road).
• Dolphins: 0-6 Team Total O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 2-8 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
  

Includes Thursday Night Football results:

• Vikings: 1-10 O/U as road favorites (including neutral field) since Dec 20, 2021.
• Vikings: 8-1-2 ATS as road favorites since Dec 20, 2021.

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bears: 7-0 ATS In L7 home games.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
• Dolphins: 0-7 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Totals go 9-6 to the under in Week 7, with an average of 45.4 points per game (on par with the season average of 45) and a median of 46. This brings the total O/U record to 53-52-2 for the season. Market totals have stayed constant for a few weeks now, hovering around the 44 mark. As of right now, average market totals for Week 8 is 44.2.

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III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 29-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 4-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active to play on the 49ers and Steelers in Week 8.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. Another one that is not active, but is something we will monitor going forward.

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IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches

Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.

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V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 49-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 5-2 ATS this season (with the Vikings losing on Thursday). This is active on the Falcons in Week 8.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

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VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 156-105-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Texans and Dolphins in Week 8.

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NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

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As the Indianapolis Colts get ready to face the Houston Texans, situational factors strongly favor the Colts. The betting market seems to agree, with the spread moving to Colts +5 after opening at a higher line.

The Texans return home after a two-game road stretch, often a tough spot for teams, especially with a short week and a Thursday night matchup against the Jets on deck. This look-ahead factor may lead Houston to overlook Indianapolis, leaving an opening for the Colts to take advantage.

The Colts are motivated to make up for a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Texans, and they come into this matchup with a healthier roster (Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Deforest Buckner) than they’ve had in weeks. With star receiver Nico Collins out for the Texans, the Colts’ defense could have an edge here as well.

Indianapolis has been consistent at covering the spread, going 5-1 ATS this season. The Colts’ situational edge, combined with Houston’s potential distractions, makes Indianapolis a strong play at +5. Expect a focused Colts team ready to take advantage of the circumstances.

Pick: Colts +5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

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This AFC West matchup has two of our strongest “under” systems active, and given both teams’ recent performances, it’s easy to see why. The undefeated Chiefs have leaned on their defense to keep their winning streak alive, despite dealing with numerous injuries. Their game plan likely involves a run-heavy approach featuring Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, while DeAndre Hopkins, a recent addition, may have limited impact after just joining the team.

On the other side, the Raiders’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 29th in Offensive DVOA, indicating they’re one of the least efficient offensive units in the league. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to contain them effectively, making it unlikely that Las Vegas will put up many points.

Given these factors, the under at 41.5 looks appealing, as both teams seem positioned for a low-scoring contest.


Pick: Chiefs/Raiders Under 41.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The Buccaneers head into this game on short rest and significantly weakened by the loss of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With limited offensive options, Tampa Bay faces a difficult matchup against a Falcons team that’s eager to put last week’s disappointing home loss to the Seahawks behind them.

Historically, teams that suffer an unexpected loss at home as favorites often bounce back strong in their following game. The Falcons’ status as road favorites here suggests confidence from oddsmakers that Atlanta can deliver a solid rebound. Their determination is further fueled by Kirk Cousins’ incredible 500+ yard passing performance last month, setting a high bar for the offense to match. There’s an additional Baller System backing a favorite off a game with low turnovers – a potential sign they will protect the ball and put themselves in a better position to win.

Signs point to Atlanta covering the spread here, and we like them at -2.5.

Pick: Falcons -2.5

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