Category: Betting
Top MLB Betting Trends | Saturday, August 31
Top MLB Betting Trends | Friday, August 30
Top MLB Betting Trends | Thurs, August 29
Top MLB Betting Trends | Wed, August 28
FREE PREVIEW – Top MLB Betting Trends | Mon, August 26
Hello Ballers! Featured MLB Betting Trends went 3-1-1 yesterday – Royals took a huge dump on our ‘8’ Baller Matchup Rating, but a good day otherwise. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:
Featured MLB Betting Trends:
- Braves: 6-15-1 F5 O/U when Max Fried starts.
- In L30 days, Twins: 0-4-1 F5 O/U when Bailey Ober starts.
- With both teams trending under and two strong pitchers (Max Fried: 3.57 ERA, Bailey Ober: 3.54 ERA), we’re targeting the under 4 at -115.
- With both teams trending under and two strong pitchers (Max Fried: 3.57 ERA, Bailey Ober: 3.54 ERA), we’re targeting the under 4 at -115.
- Guardians: 13-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts (4-0 O/U as home favorites).
- In L30 days, Royals: 8-0-1 O/U vs. LHP.
- Given these aligning trends and two shaky pitchers (Alec Marsh: 4.71 ERA, Logan Allen: 5.56 ERA) on the mound, we’re backing the over 8.5 (-110, BetRivers) in Game 2 of the doubleheader.
- Given these aligning trends and two shaky pitchers (Alec Marsh: 4.71 ERA, Logan Allen: 5.56 ERA) on the mound, we’re backing the over 8.5 (-110, BetRivers) in Game 2 of the doubleheader.
Check out our Matchup Pages with ALL MLB Betting Trends
Here are the rest of today’s MLB Betting Trends:
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (Game 1)
- Royals: 13-3 ML as road favorites vs. RHP (6-0 ML in L30 days).
- Guardians: 27-10 ML vs. LHP.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (Game 2)
- Guardians: 14-4-1 F5 O/U and 13-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts (4-0 F5 and full game O/U as home favorites).
- In L30 days, Royals: 8-0-1 O/U vs. LHP.
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Phillies: 10-2 F5 ML as home favorites when Zach Wheeler starts.
- Phillies: 27-7-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
- Astros: 6-15-2 F5 O/U when Ronel Blanco starts.
- In L30 days, Astros: 5-14-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
- Cubs: 15-6-1 F5 O/U when Jameson Taillon starts.
- In L30 days, Pirates: 5-15-1 F5 ML vs. RHP.
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
- In L30 days, Nationals: 1-6 ML vs. LHP.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
- Blue Jays: 8-20-6 F5 ML as a road underdog vs. RHP.
- In L30 days, Blue Jays: 0-5 ML when Yariel Rodriguez starts.
- In L30 days, Red Sox: 15-6-1 O/U vs. RHP.
- Red Sox: 17-8-1 F5 O/U when Kutter Crawford starts.
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
- Braves: 6-15-1 F5 O/U when Max Fried starts.
- In L30 days, Twins: 4-0-1 F5 ML and 0-4-1 F5 O/U when Bailey Ober starts.
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
- In L30 days, Cardinals: 5-0 O/U when Kyle Gibson starts.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
- In L30 days, Tigers: 5-14-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
- In L30 days, White Sox: 1-9 ML as a home underdog vs. RHP.
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
- In L30 days, Marlins: 19-7 YRFI.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
- Mariners: 25-14 ML as home favorites.
- Mariners: 14-23-2 O/U as home favorites.
- Rays: 27-13 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
- In L30 days, Rays: 5-14-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.
- Rays: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘4’ as an underdog.
Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full game)
Washington Commanders: 2024 NFL Preview – Quinn and Kingsbury bring new regime
Washington Commanders | NFC East
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Head Coach: Dan Quinn (1st season)
Key Additions:
- Dan Quinn (head coach)
- Kliff Kingsbury (offensive coordinator)
- Jayden Daniels (QB) – rookie
- Austin Ekeler (RB)
- Zach Ertz (TE)
- Tyler Biadasz (C)
- Bobby Wagner (LB)
- Frankie Luvu (LB)
Key Departures:
- Ron Riviera (head coach)
- Sam Howell (QB)
- Curtis Samuel (WR)
- Logan Thomas (TE)
Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):
- Overall Record: 4-13
- ATS Record: 6-10-1 ATS (0-7-1 ATS at home)
- O/U Record: 9-7-1 O/U (12-5 1H O/U)
- 0-4 ATS as a favorite
- 0-6 1H ATS vs. bad teams (45% win percentage or lower)
Last Season’s Ranks (2023):
- EPA/play (offense): 25th
- Rush EPA (offense): 20th
- Pass EPA (offense): 26th
- EPA/play allowed (defense): 32nd
- Rush EPA (defense): 21st
- Pass EPA (defense): 32nd
- Plays per game: 19th
- Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 17th
2024 Season Schedule:
- Week 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Away)
- Week 2: New York Giants (Home)
- Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals (Away)
- Week 4: Arizona Cardinals (Away)
- Week 5: Cleveland Browns (Home)
- Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (Away)
- Week 7: Carolina Panthers (Home)
- Week 8: Chicago Bears (Home)
- Week 9: New York Giants (Away)
- Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
- Week 11: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
- Week 12: Dallas Cowboys (Home)
- Week 13: Tennessee Titans (Home)
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: New Orleans Saints (Away)
- Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
- Week 17: Atlanta Falcons (Home)
- Week 18: Dallas Cowboys (Away)
Commentary: The 2024 season marks a dramatic overhaul for the team, starting with the arrival of Dan Quinn as the new head coach, taking over from Ron Rivera. Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, will be aiming to turn around a squad that was among the worst in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season. Adding Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator introduces a fresh offensive scheme, which could be a game-changer for a unit that struggled significantly in 2023.
With the drafting of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the addition of dynamic playmakers like Austin Ekeler and veteran tight end Zach Ertz, the offense is set for a significant transformation. Daniels’ development will be critical; while his rookie season promises potential, he will need to adapt quickly to the NFL’s demands. On the defensive side, bringing in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu aims to solidify a unit that was last in the league in EPA/play allowed and pass EPA allowed.
The transition period could be rocky, but the potential for a turnaround is certainly present.
Click here for the Week 1 Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup page
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Tennessee Titans: 2024 NFL Preview – Surviving Without King Henry
Tennessee Titans | AFC South
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Head Coach: Brian Callahan (1st season)
Key Additions:
- Brian Callahan (head coach)
- Calvin Ridley (WR)
- Tyler Boyd (WR)
- Tony Pollard (RB)
- L’jarius Sneed (CB)
- Chidobie Awuze (CB)
Key Departures:
- Mike Vrabel (head coach)
- Derrick Henry (RB)
Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):
- Overall Record: 6-11
- ATS Record: 7-9-1 ATS
- O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
- 0-5 ATS after a win
- 7-1 1H ATS at home
Last Season’s Ranks (2023):
- EPA/play (offense): 16th
- Rush EPA (offense): 13th
- Pass EPA (offense): 20th
- EPA/play allowed (defense): 28th
- Rush EPA (defense): 12th
- Pass EPA (defense): 30th
- Plays per game: 31st
- Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 31st
2024 Season Schedule:
- Week 1: Chicago Bears (Away)
- Week 2: New York Jets (Home)
- Week 3: Green Bay Packers (Home)
- Week 4: Miami Dolphins (Away)
- Week 5: BYE
- Week 6: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
- Week 7: Buffalo Bills (Away)
- Week 8: Detroit Lions (Away)
- Week 9: New England Patriots (Home)
- Week 10: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
- Week 11: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
- Week 12: Houston Texans (Away)
- Week 13: Washington Commanders (Away)
- Week 14: Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
- Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
- Week 16: Indianapolis Colts (Away)
- Week 17: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
- Week 18: Houston Texans (Home)
Commentary: The Tennessee Titans enter the 2024 season with a radically different look and feel, signaling the dawn of a new era. After a disappointing 6-11 finish last season, the team underwent a significant transformation, starting with the hiring of Brian Callahan as head coach. The departure of long-time leader Mike Vrabel marks the end of an era defined by tough, physical football centered around the power running game, led by the now-departed Derrick Henry.
The Titans’ offense, once synonymous with Henry’s bruising style, will now have a more diversified attack with the additions of Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. Ridley and Boyd bring experience and reliability to a receiving corps that has been inconsistent in recent years, while Pollard offers a dynamic, dual-threat option in the backfield. These changes indicate a shift toward a more pass-heavy offense, though the team’s success will largely hinge on quarterback Will Levis. Levis has shown flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency during his rookie season.
Defensively, the Titans were among the league’s worst in 2023, particularly against the pass, ranking 30th in pass EPA allowed. The acquisitions of L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie are clear attempts to shore up a beleaguered secondary. The Titans’ season will likely be defined by how quickly the team can adapt to its new identity and whether they can avoid the inconsistencies that plagued them in 2023.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2024 NFL Preview – Regression for Baker and Bucs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South
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Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Key Additions:
- Jordan Whitehead (S)
- Ben Bredeson (LG)
- Graham Barton (C) – rookie
Key Departures:
- Shaq Barrett (LB)
- Devin White (LB)
- Carlton Davis (CB)
Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):
- Overall Record: 9-8
- ATS Record: 11-6 ATS (8-1 ATS on the road)
- O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
- 0-6 O/U vs. good teams (55% win percentage or greater)
- 0-3 O/U as home underdogs
Last Season’s Ranks (2023):
- EPA/play (offense): 12th
- Rush EPA (offense): 27th
- Pass EPA (offense): 8th
- EPA/play allowed (defense): 18th
- Rush EPA (defense): 5th
- Pass EPA (defense): 22nd
- Plays per game: 25th
- Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 14th
2024 Season Schedule:
- Week 1: Washington Commanders (Home)
- Week 2: Detroit Lions (Away)
- Week 3: Denver Broncos (Home)
- Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
- Week 5: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
- Week 6: New Orleans Saints (Away)
- Week 7: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
- Week 8: Atlanta Falcons (Home)
- Week 9: Kansas City Chiefs (Away)
- Week 10: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
- Week 11: BYE
- Week 12: New York Giants (Away)
- Week 13: Carolina Panthers (Away)
- Week 14: Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
- Week 15: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
- Week 16: Dallas Cowboys (Away)
- Week 17: Carolina Panthers (Home)
- Week 18: New Orleans Saints (Home)
Commentary: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into the 2024 season with significant changes, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The loss of key defenders like Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and Carlton Davis leaves a void that will be hard to fill, especially for a unit that was already shaky last year. Despite ranking 5th in rush defense EPA, their pass defense lagged behind at 22nd, and the departure of key players could exacerbate these issues.
Offensively, the Buccaneers performed admirably, finishing 12th in EPA/play and 8th in pass EPA, largely due to their aerial attack. Baker Mayfield, who received payday, will be under the spotlight this season. With financial security in hand, the question arises whether his motivation will remain high or if complacency could set in. The Bucs were highly efficient against the spread last year, particularly on the road (8-1 ATS).
Given their defensive losses and potential for regression, the road ahead looks challenging, and the Bucs will need to overcome hurdles to avoid slipping back into mediocrity.
Click here for the Week 1 Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup page
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Seattle Seahawks: 2024 NFL Preview – Post Pete Carroll Era
Seattle Seahawks | NFC West
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Head Coach: Mike Macdonald (1st season)
Key Additions:
- Mike Macdonald (head coach)
- Byron Murphy (DT) – rookie
- Tyrel Dodson (LB)
- Jerome Baker (LB)
Key Departures:
- Pete Carroll (head coach)
- Evan Brown (C)
- Jordyn Brooks (LB)
- Jamal Adams (S)
- Will Dissly (TE)
Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):
- Overall Record: 9-8
- ATS Record: 8-7-2 ATS
- O/U Record: 7-10 O/U
Last Season’s Ranks (2023):
- EPA/play (offense): 10th
- Rush EPA (offense): 14th
- Pass EPA (offense): 10th
- EPA/play allowed (defense): 30th
- Rush EPA (defense): 31st
- Pass EPA (defense): 29th
- Plays per game: 27th
- Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 30th
2024 Season Schedule:
- Week 1: Denver Broncos (Home)
- Week 2: New England Patriots (Away)
- Week 3: Miami Dolphins (Home)
- Week 4: Detroit Lions (Away)
- Week 5: New York Giants (Home)
- Week 6: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
- Week 7: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
- Week 8: Buffalo Bills (Home)
- Week 9: Los Angeles Rams (Home)
- Week 10: BYE
- Week 11: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
- Week 12: Arizona Cardinals (Home)
- Week 13: New York Jets (Away)
- Week 14: Arizona Cardinals (Away)
- Week 15: Green Bay Packers (Home)
- Week 16: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
- Week 17: Chicago Bears (Away)
- Week 18: Los Angeles Rams (Away)
Commentary: The Seattle Seahawks are entering a new era with the departure of long-time head coach Pete Carroll and the introduction of Mike Macdonald, who steps into his first season at the helm and with big shoes to fill.
Last season, the Seahawks boasted an impressive offense, finishing 10th in both overall EPA/play and passing EPA, with a solid rushing attack ranking 14th. However, the defense was a glaring weakness, ranking near the bottom in nearly every defensive metric. The unit’s performance was a significant factor in their 9-8 record, barely squeezing into the playoff picture. The additions of Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker are intended to bolster the linebacker corps.
Despite their strong offensive showing, the Seahawks may have overperformed last season, and with the transition to a new coaching regime, there’s potential for regression.