Author: Austin Wang

Hello Ballers! What a great weekend and an incredible run – the Cubs/Cardinals under and Twins (however you chose to play them) got there. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites | Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts | White Sox: 20 consecutive losses
  • The Athletics have been performing exceptionally well as home favorites. JP Sears has shown solid performance recently with a 3.7 ERA and a 3.95 ERA over the last 30 days, with one poor outing against the Astros as an outlier. This may seem like a straightforward pick, but the indicators clearly favor the Athletics to play on the run-line or include them as a parlay piece.
    
    
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over | L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Logan Allen is making his first start since July 6. His season-long stats are concerning, with a 5.67 ERA and 5.45 FIP, and there may be rust coming into play against the Diamondbacks’ hot offense. The over seems to be a strong play here.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Cardinals: 13-4 NRFI as a home underdog.
• Cardinals: 14-3 RL (+1.5) as a home underdog.
• In L30 days, Mets: 19-5 NRFI.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’
  
  
  
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over.
• L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

• Marlins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘4’ as an underdog.
• Marlins: 0-4 F5 ML as home underdogs when Roddery Munoz starts.
• Reds: 0-4-1 F5 ML when Nick Martinez starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 9-2-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

• Nationals: 6-15-1 F5 ML and 6-16 ML when Patrick Corbin starts.
• Nationals: 29-12 NRFI as home underdogs.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

• Twins: 15-6 ML as road favorites vs. RHP.
• Baller System active to play on Twins: Back team off a win when they used a lot of pitchers (lower-volume variation)

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

• Rangers: 6-15 ML when Andrew Heaney starts.
• In L30 days, Rangers: 14-6-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Astros: 0-7 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

• Royals: 7-1 ML as home favorites when Brady Singer starts.
• Royals: 1-6-1 F5 O/U as home favorites when Singer starts.

Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites.
• Athletics: 5-14-2 F5 O/U when JP Sears starts.
• Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox: 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts.
• White Sox: lost 20 consecutive games.
  

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Phillies: 15-3-4 F5 ML when Aaron Nola starts.
• Dodgers: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)