Author: Austin Wang

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts | 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP | lost 14 consecutive games
  • In addition to the clear trends fading Flexen and the White Sox, the Royals have a strong Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’ today, making this our favorite angle of the day.
    
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024 | In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
  • There are aligning ‘over’ trends with both teams, and we like this to continue, especially in a hitters’ park like Camden Yards. Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles, and we expect the hard-hitting Orioles to give some run support for their new pitcher. Has the Blue Jays offense woken up? They scored 20 runs in their three-game series against the Rangers.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

• Orioles: 23-10-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024.

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

• Guardians: 16-5 ML when Tanner Bibee starts.
• In L30 days, Guardians: 3-10-3 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Tigers: 16-4 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

• In L30 days, Yankees: 14-4-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 25-4-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 9-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Zach Wheeler starts.

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

• In L30 days, Mets: 23-3 NRFI.
• Mets: 29-11 NRFI as home favorites.
• Twins: 19-8-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

• In L30 days, Cardinals are 18-6 NRFI.
• In L30 days, Rangers are 5-0 YRFI when Nathan Eovaldi starts.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

• Mariners: 4-16-1 F5 O/U when Logan Gilbert starts.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

• Reds: 5-0 F5 O/U when Carson Spiers starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 11-3-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Reds: 18-5 NRFI.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

• Pirates: 8-1-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
• In L30 days, Pirates: 20-6 NRFI.

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Braves: 13-3 NRFI as a road underdog.

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts.
• White Sox: 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP.
• White Sox: lost 14 consecutive games.

Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 5-0 F5 and full game ML when Jordan Montgomery starts.
• Diamondbacks: 11-3 F5 O/U when Montgomery starts.
• In L30 days, Nationals: 0-4 F5 ML when Mitchell Parker starts.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)