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Matchup

Lynx @ Liberty [ Liberty -6 / 157.5 ]

Lynx | 38-14 (73.1%)
Liberty | 39-12 (76.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-6) a 48.7-47.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 56.4-61.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 48.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 59% chance of going over the total.

Lynx Situational Notes

Liberty Situational Notes

Lynx Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
10/20	NYL	MIN +6 NYL -6	157.5	MIN	-	-	-
10/18	MIN [ 82 ]	MIN +3 NYL -3	159	NYL [ 80 ]	+2	+5	+3
10/16	MIN [ 77 ]	MIN +3.5 NYL -3.5	160.5	NYL [ 80 ]	-3	+0.5	-3.5
10/13	NYL [ 80 ]	MIN +7 NYL -7	162	MIN [ 66 ]	-14	-7	-16
10/10	NYL [ 93 ]	MIN +6 NYL -6	161	MIN [ 95 ]	+2	+8	+27
10/8	MIN [ 88 ]	MIN -4 CON +4	150.5	CON [ 77 ]	+11	+7	+14.5
10/6	CON [ 92 ]	MIN +2 CON -2	153	MIN [ 82 ]	-10	-8	+21
10/4	CON [ 81 ]	MIN +2.5 CON -2.5	151	MIN [ 90 ]	+9	+11.5	+20
10/1	MIN [ 77 ]	MIN -5 CON +5	152.5	CON [ 70 ]	+7	+2	-5.5
9/29	MIN [ 70 ]	MIN -3.5 CON +3.5	152	CON [ 73 ]	-3	-6.5	-9

Liberty Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
10/20	NYL	NYL -6 MIN +6	157.5	MIN	-	-	-
10/18	MIN [ 82 ]	NYL -3 MIN +3	159	NYL [ 80 ]	-2	-5	+3
10/16	MIN [ 77 ]	NYL -3.5 MIN +3.5	160.5	NYL [ 80 ]	+3	-0.5	-3.5
10/13	NYL [ 80 ]	NYL -7 MIN +7	162	MIN [ 66 ]	+14	+7	-16
10/10	NYL [ 93 ]	NYL -6 MIN +6	161	MIN [ 95 ]	-2	-8	+27
10/6	LVA [ 62 ]	NYL +3 LVA -3	167.5	NYL [ 76 ]	+14	+17	-29.5
10/4	LVA [ 95 ]	NYL +3.5 LVA -3.5	164.5	NYL [ 81 ]	-14	-10.5	+11.5
10/1	NYL [ 88 ]	NYL -4 LVA +4	164	LVA [ 84 ]	+4	0	+8
9/29	NYL [ 87 ]	NYL -3.5 LVA +3.5	163	LVA [ 77 ]	+10	+6.5	+1
9/24	NYL [ 91 ]	NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5	156	ATL [ 82 ]	+9	-3.5	+17

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
10/20	NYL	NYL -6 MIN +6	157.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10/18	MIN [ 82 ]	NYL -3 MIN +3	159	NYL [ 80 ]	-2	-5	+3	94.9	101.1	103.6	-2.5	162
10/16	MIN [ 77 ]	NYL -3.5 MIN +3.5	160.5	NYL [ 80 ]	+3	-0.5	-3.5	93.3	102.9	99.1	3.9	157
10/13	NYL [ 80 ]	NYL -7 MIN +7	162	MIN [ 66 ]	+14	+7	-16	89.2	107.7	88.8	18.8	146
10/10	NYL [ 93 ]	NYL -6 MIN +6	161	MIN [ 95 ]	-2	-8	+27	87.8	115.1	117.5	-2.5	170.3
9/15	NYL [ 79 ]	NYL -5.5 MIN +5.5	160	MIN [ 88 ]	-9	-14.5	+7	89.6	105.8	117.9	-12.1	167
7/2	NYL [ 76 ]	NYL -6 MIN +6	169	MIN [ 67 ]	+9	+3	-26	90.4	100.9	88.9	11.9	143
6/25	NYL [ 89 ]	NYL -6 MIN +6	164.5	MIN [ 94 ]	-5	-11	+18.5	95.4	111.9	118.2	-6.3	183
5/25	MIN [ 84 ]	NYL -6.5 MIN +6.5	167.5	NYL [ 67 ]	-17	-23.5	-16.5	91.1	88.3	110.6	-22.4	151
8/26	MIN [ 76 ]	NYL -9 MIN +9	166	NYL [ 111 ]	+35	+26	+21	96.8	137.5	94.2	43.4	187
8/4	MIN [ 66 ]	NYL -9.5 MIN +9.5	169.5	NYL [ 76 ]	+10	+0.5	-27.5	83.5	109.2	94.9	14.4	142

Efficiency

Lynx (11 games)		Liberty (10 games)
0.58 (5)	Win Percentage	0.73 (1)
63.64 (1)	ATS Win%	44.44 (8)
63.64 (2)	OU%	60 (3)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
105.58 (2)	Offensive Rating	104.74 (3)
103.88 (6)	Defensive Rating	98.38 (3)
92.04 (8)	Pace	92.27 (7)
1.64 (2)	A/TO Ratio	1.35 (6)

Four Factors

Lynx (11 games)		Liberty (10 games)
52.14 (2)	EFG%	49.47 (5)
48.87 (3)	EFG% Allowed	49.46 (6)
24.31 (7)	FT Rate	23.35 (8)
21.71 (2)	FT Rate Allowed	20.27 (1)
19 (7)	OReb%	27.69 (1)
28.85 (8)	OReb% Allowed	17.16 (1)
16.5 (3)	TO Rate	18.03 (7)
18.31 (3)	TO Rate Forced	16.76 (5)

Scoring

Lynx (11 games)		Liberty (10 games)
82.67 (4)	PPG	82.36 (5)
81.33 (6)	PPG Allowed	77.36 (2)
14.42 (6)	Pts off TO	13.64 (8)
13.08 (3)	Pts off TO Allowed	14 (5)
8.58 (8)	2nd Chance Pts	11.45 (4)
11.75 (6)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	9.27 (2)
8.5 (7)	Fast Break Pts	10.82 (2)
9.58 (3)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	9.82 (4)

Inside the Arc

Lynx (11 games)		Liberty (10 games)
31.58 (7)	Paint Attempts	33.82 (5)
35.25 (7)	Paint Attempts Allowed	34.27 (6)
56.46 (1)	Paint FG%	51.88 (7)
51.54 (5)	Paint FG% Allowed	51.19 (3)
12.83 (2)	Mid-Range Attempts	10 (6)
15.75 (8)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.73 (2)
0.38 (3)	Mid-Range FG%	0.29 (8)
0.32 (2)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.36 (4)

Three Point Shooting

Lynx (11 games)		Liberty (10 games)
2.08 (8)	Corner 3 Attempts	4.09 (2)
4.67 (4)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	4.73 (5)
44 (1)	Corner 3 FG%	37.78 (2)
50 (8)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.54 (4)
19.58 (5)	ATB3 Attempts	20.91 (4)
14.42 (3)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	15.73 (5)
35.32 (3)	ATB3 FG%	36.09 (2)
31.79 (3)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	36.99 (8)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lynx 1h	8-3-0	4-1-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0
Lynx	7-4	4-1	1-1	0-0	2-2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1-0
Liberty 1h	6-4-0	5-1-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0
Liberty	7-3	5-1	0-0	1-1	1-1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lynx 1h	7-4-0	3-2-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0
Lynx	7-4-0	3-2-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0
Liberty 1h	6-4-0	5-1-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0
Liberty	4-5-1	3-2-1	0-0-0	0-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lynx 1h	8-3-0	4-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	3-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0
Lynx	7-4-0	3-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	3-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0
Liberty 1h	6-4-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-0-0
Liberty	6-4-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lynx 1h	7-4-0	3-2-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-2-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0
Lynx	7-4-0	3-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	3-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0
Liberty 1h	7-3-0	5-1-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0
Liberty	5-5-0	4-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Lynx 1h	7-4-0	3-2-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	3-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0
Lynx	6-5-0	3-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	3-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0
Liberty 1h	4-6-0	1-5-0	0-0-0	2-0-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-1-0	0-0-0
Liberty	5-5-0	3-3-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	1-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Lynx	0-0-0 (-)	0-1-0 (0%)	4-0-0 (100%)	0-1-0 (0%)	2-1-0 (66.7%)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-0-0 (-)
Liberty	0-0-0 (-)	0-0-0 (-)	1-1-0 (50%)	0-0-0 (-)	1-3-1 (25%)	1-0-0 (100%)	1-1-0 (50%)