Lynx @ Liberty [ Liberty -6 / 157.5 ]
Lynx | 38-14 (73.1%)Liberty | 39-12 (76.5%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Liberty (-6) a 48.7-47.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 56.4-61.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 48.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 59% chance of going over the total.
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 10/20 | NYL | MIN +6 NYL -6 | 157.5 | MIN | - | - | - |
| 10/18 | MIN [ 82 ] | MIN +3 NYL -3 | 159 | NYL [ 80 ] | +2 | +5 | +3 |
| 10/16 | MIN [ 77 ] | MIN +3.5 NYL -3.5 | 160.5 | NYL [ 80 ] | -3 | +0.5 | -3.5 |
| 10/13 | NYL [ 80 ] | MIN +7 NYL -7 | 162 | MIN [ 66 ] | -14 | -7 | -16 |
| 10/10 | NYL [ 93 ] | MIN +6 NYL -6 | 161 | MIN [ 95 ] | +2 | +8 | +27 |
| 10/8 | MIN [ 88 ] | MIN -4 CON +4 | 150.5 | CON [ 77 ] | +11 | +7 | +14.5 |
| 10/6 | CON [ 92 ] | MIN +2 CON -2 | 153 | MIN [ 82 ] | -10 | -8 | +21 |
| 10/4 | CON [ 81 ] | MIN +2.5 CON -2.5 | 151 | MIN [ 90 ] | +9 | +11.5 | +20 |
| 10/1 | MIN [ 77 ] | MIN -5 CON +5 | 152.5 | CON [ 70 ] | +7 | +2 | -5.5 |
| 9/29 | MIN [ 70 ] | MIN -3.5 CON +3.5 | 152 | CON [ 73 ] | -3 | -6.5 | -9 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 10/20 | NYL | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 157.5 | MIN | - | - | - |
| 10/18 | MIN [ 82 ] | NYL -3 MIN +3 | 159 | NYL [ 80 ] | -2 | -5 | +3 |
| 10/16 | MIN [ 77 ] | NYL -3.5 MIN +3.5 | 160.5 | NYL [ 80 ] | +3 | -0.5 | -3.5 |
| 10/13 | NYL [ 80 ] | NYL -7 MIN +7 | 162 | MIN [ 66 ] | +14 | +7 | -16 |
| 10/10 | NYL [ 93 ] | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 161 | MIN [ 95 ] | -2 | -8 | +27 |
| 10/6 | LVA [ 62 ] | NYL +3 LVA -3 | 167.5 | NYL [ 76 ] | +14 | +17 | -29.5 |
| 10/4 | LVA [ 95 ] | NYL +3.5 LVA -3.5 | 164.5 | NYL [ 81 ] | -14 | -10.5 | +11.5 |
| 10/1 | NYL [ 88 ] | NYL -4 LVA +4 | 164 | LVA [ 84 ] | +4 | 0 | +8 |
| 9/29 | NYL [ 87 ] | NYL -3.5 LVA +3.5 | 163 | LVA [ 77 ] | +10 | +6.5 | +1 |
| 9/24 | NYL [ 91 ] | NYL -12.5 ATL +12.5 | 156 | ATL [ 82 ] | +9 | -3.5 | +17 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 10/20 | NYL | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 157.5 | MIN | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10/18 | MIN [ 82 ] | NYL -3 MIN +3 | 159 | NYL [ 80 ] | -2 | -5 | +3 | 94.9 | 101.1 | 103.6 | -2.5 | 162 |
| 10/16 | MIN [ 77 ] | NYL -3.5 MIN +3.5 | 160.5 | NYL [ 80 ] | +3 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 93.3 | 102.9 | 99.1 | 3.9 | 157 |
| 10/13 | NYL [ 80 ] | NYL -7 MIN +7 | 162 | MIN [ 66 ] | +14 | +7 | -16 | 89.2 | 107.7 | 88.8 | 18.8 | 146 |
| 10/10 | NYL [ 93 ] | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 161 | MIN [ 95 ] | -2 | -8 | +27 | 87.8 | 115.1 | 117.5 | -2.5 | 170.3 |
| 9/15 | NYL [ 79 ] | NYL -5.5 MIN +5.5 | 160 | MIN [ 88 ] | -9 | -14.5 | +7 | 89.6 | 105.8 | 117.9 | -12.1 | 167 |
| 7/2 | NYL [ 76 ] | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 169 | MIN [ 67 ] | +9 | +3 | -26 | 90.4 | 100.9 | 88.9 | 11.9 | 143 |
| 6/25 | NYL [ 89 ] | NYL -6 MIN +6 | 164.5 | MIN [ 94 ] | -5 | -11 | +18.5 | 95.4 | 111.9 | 118.2 | -6.3 | 183 |
| 5/25 | MIN [ 84 ] | NYL -6.5 MIN +6.5 | 167.5 | NYL [ 67 ] | -17 | -23.5 | -16.5 | 91.1 | 88.3 | 110.6 | -22.4 | 151 |
| 8/26 | MIN [ 76 ] | NYL -9 MIN +9 | 166 | NYL [ 111 ] | +35 | +26 | +21 | 96.8 | 137.5 | 94.2 | 43.4 | 187 |
| 8/4 | MIN [ 66 ] | NYL -9.5 MIN +9.5 | 169.5 | NYL [ 76 ] | +10 | +0.5 | -27.5 | 83.5 | 109.2 | 94.9 | 14.4 | 142 |