Nuggets @ Thunder [ Thunder -10 / 230 ]

Nuggets | 55-35 (61.1%)
Thunder | 72-16 (81.8%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Thunder (-10) a 57.2-66.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 230 around 42.1-49% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Thunder have a 61.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 43.4% chance of going over the total.

Nuggets Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Thunder Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Nuggets Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/9DENDEN +4.5
OKC -4.5
233.5OKC---
5/7OKCDEN +10
OKC -10
230DEN---
5/5OKC [ 119 ]DEN +10.5
OKC -10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]+2+12.5+11.5
5/3DEN [ 120 ]DEN -1.5
LAC +1.5
207LAC [ 101 ]+19+17.5+14
5/1LAC [ 111 ]DEN +6
LAC -6
213DEN [ 105 ]-60+3
4/29DEN [ 131 ]DEN +1.5
LAC -1.5
209LAC [ 115 ]+16+17.5+37
4/26LAC [ 99 ]DEN +6.5
LAC -6.5
211.5DEN [ 101 ]+2+8.5-11.5
4/24LAC [ 117 ]DEN +5.5
LAC -5.5
214DEN [ 83 ]-34-28.5-14
4/21DEN [ 102 ]DEN -1
LAC +1
217.5LAC [ 105 ]-3-4-10.5
4/19DEN [ 112 ]DEN -2.5
LAC +2.5
224.5LAC [ 110 ]+2-0.5-2.5
Thunder Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/9DENOKC -4.5
DEN +4.5
233.5OKC---
5/7OKCOKC -10
DEN +10
230DEN---
5/5OKC [ 119 ]OKC -10.5
DEN +10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]-2-12.5+11.5
4/26MEM [ 115 ]OKC -15
MEM +15
224OKC [ 117 ]+2-13+8
4/24MEM [ 108 ]OKC -10
MEM +10
230.5OKC [ 114 ]+6-4-8.5
4/22OKC [ 118 ]OKC -14.5
MEM +14.5
229.5MEM [ 99 ]+19+4.5-12.5
4/20OKC [ 131 ]OKC -13
MEM +13
231.5MEM [ 80 ]+51+38-20.5
4/13NOP [ 100 ]OKC -12.5
NOP +12.5
230.5OKC [ 115 ]+15+2.5-15.5
4/11UTA [ 111 ]OKC -9
UTA +9
234.5OKC [ 145 ]+34+25+21.5
4/9PHO [ 112 ]OKC -7.5
PHO +7.5
229OKC [ 125 ]+13+5.5+8
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
5/11DEN-
-		-OKC----
-
-
-
-
5/9DENOKC -4.5
DEN +4.5
233.5OKC----
-
-
-
-
5/7OKCOKC -10
DEN +10
230DEN----
-
-
-
-
5/5OKC [ 119 ]OKC -10.5
DEN +10.5
228.5DEN [ 121 ]-2-12.5+11.5104.2
114.2
116.1
-1.9
240
3/10OKC [ 127 ]OKC -9.5
DEN +9.5
240.5DEN [ 140 ]-13-22.5+26.598.4
129.1
142.3
-13.2
267
3/9OKC [ 127 ]OKC -7.5
DEN +7.5
242DEN [ 103 ]+24+16.5-1297.5
130.2
105.6
24.6
230
11/6DEN [ 124 ]OKC -7
DEN +7
224.5OKC [ 122 ]-2-9+21.5107.7
113.3
115.2
-1.9
246
10/24DEN [ 87 ]OKC +2
DEN -2
227.5OKC [ 102 ]+15+17-38.599.6
102.4
87.3
15.1
189
1/31OKC [ 105 ]OKC -1
DEN +1
227DEN [ 100 ]+5+4-2292.5
113.5
108.1
5.4
205
12/29DEN [ 93 ]OKC +1.5
DEN -1.5
237.5OKC [ 119 ]+26+27.5-25.599
120.2
94
26.3
212
12/16DEN [ 117 ]OKC +5
DEN -5
237.5OKC [ 118 ]+1+6-2.594.4
124.9
123.9
1.1
235

Efficiency
Nuggets
(8 game/s)		 Thunder
(5 game/s)
0.63 (8)Win Percentage0.8 (2)
0.57 (5)ATS Win%0.4 (14)
0.5 (8)OU%0.4 (17)
-Strength of Schedule-
113.7 (7)Offensive Rating118.93 (3)
115.56 (23)Defensive Rating103.05 (11)
94.3 (11)Pace101.12 (1)
1.65 (11)A/TO Ratio2.55 (2)

Four Factors
Nuggets
(8 game/s)		 Thunder
(5 game/s)
54.12 (6)EFG%51.86 (12)
54.84 (23)EFG% Allowed47.96 (12)
24.71 (12)FT Rate26.29 (7)
23.84 (17)FT Rate Allowed26.02 (20)
29.76 (4)OReb%26.75 (8)
23.78 (16)OReb% Allowed27.56 (25)
14.94 (24)TO Rate10.13 (12)
12.25 (15)TO Rate Forced18.72 (1)

Scoring
Nuggets
(8 game/s)		 Thunder
(5 game/s)
109.38 (6)PPG119.8 (2)
109.63 (23)PPG Allowed104.6 (17)
12.25 (18)Pts off TO26 (1)
16.75 (23)Pts off TO Allowed9 (11)
17.13 (4)2nd Chance Pts15.2 (8)
13.5 (15)2nd Chance Pts Allowed16 (25)
15.25 (4)Fast Break Pts21.2 (1)
16.88 (28)Fast Break Pts Allowed10.8 (16)

Inside the Arc
Nuggets
(8 game/s)		 Thunder
(5 game/s)
45.88 (3)Paint Attempts43.8 (8)
45.5 (28)Paint Attempts Allowed45 (26)
55.31 (10)Paint FG%58.45 (5)
57.97 (23)Paint FG% Allowed50.22 (11)
11.25 (7)Mid-Range Attempts11 (8)
6.75 (14)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed9.4 (18)
42.22 (9)Mid-Range FG%40 (12)
37.04 (15)Mid-Range FG% Allowed44.68 (26)

Three Point Shooting
Nuggets
(8 game/s)		 Thunder
(5 game/s)
7.63 (15)Corner 3 Attempts9 (10)
10.13 (26)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8.6 (20)
36.07 (8)Corner 3 FG%35.56 (9)
34.57 (21)Corner 3 FG% Allowed32.56 (16)
21.38 (19)ATB3 Attempts32.6 (3)
23.75 (16)ATB3 Attempts Allowed24.8 (18)
39.18 (4)ATB3 FG%31.29 (17)
37.37 (22)ATB3 FG% Allowed29.84 (11)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h3-5-01-2-01-0-0--1-3-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 5-32-11-0-2-2---1-0
Thunder 1h4-1-03-0-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--2-0-0--
Thunder 4-12-1-2-0-1-0-1-1-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h4-4-01-2-01-0-0--2-2-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-3-11-2-01-0-0--2-1-1------1-0-0
Thunder 1h3-2-03-0-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--2-0-0--
Thunder 2-3-02-1-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h3-5-00-3-01-0-0--2-2-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-4-01-2-01-0-0--2-2-0------1-0-0
Thunder 1h3-2-01-2-0--2-0-0--1-0-0--0-2-0--
Thunder 2-3-01-2-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--1-1-0--

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h3-5-01-2-01-0-0--1-3-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 4-4-01-2-01-0-0--2-2-0------1-0-0
Thunder 1h2-3-02-1-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--
Thunder 1-4-01-2-0--0-2-0--0-1-0--1-1-0--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Nuggets 1h3-5-00-3-01-0-0--2-2-0------0-1-0
Nuggets 3-5-00-3-01-0-0--2-2-0------0-1-0
Thunder 1h2-3-00-3-0--2-0-0--1-0-0--0-2-0--
Thunder 2-3-01-2-0--1-1-0--1-0-0--1-1-0--


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Nuggets1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-1-1 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Thunder0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)3-3-0 (50%)