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Matchup

Timberwolves @ Nuggets [ Nuggets -5 / 208 ]

Timberwolves | 60-26 (69.8%)
Nuggets | 61-26 (70.1%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our modell will run after the first two weeks of the season.

Timberwolves Situational Notes

Nuggets Situational Notes

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/6	DEN	MIN +5.5 DEN -5.5	205.5	MIN	-	-	-
5/4	DEN	MIN +5 DEN -5	208	MIN	-	-	-
4/28	PHO [ 116 ]	MIN +1 PHO -1	213	MIN [ 122 ]	+6	+7	+25
4/26	PHO [ 109 ]	MIN +5.5 PHO -5.5	208.5	MIN [ 126 ]	+17	+22.5	+26.5
4/23	MIN [ 105 ]	MIN -3 PHO +3	210.5	PHO [ 93 ]	+12	+9	-12.5
4/20	MIN [ 120 ]	MIN -2.5 PHO +2.5	213.5	PHO [ 95 ]	+25	+22.5	+1.5
4/14	MIN [ 106 ]	MIN -2 PHO +2	217	PHO [ 125 ]	-19	-21	+14
4/12	MIN [ 109 ]	MIN -12.5 ATL +12.5	226.5	ATL [ 106 ]	+3	-9.5	-11.5
4/10	DEN [ 116 ]	MIN +6 DEN -6	212.5	MIN [ 107 ]	-9	-3	+10.5
4/9	MIN [ 130 ]	MIN -16.5 WAS +16.5	224	WAS [ 121 ]	+9	-7.5	+27

Nuggets Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/6	DEN	DEN -5.5 MIN +5.5	205.5	MIN	-	-	-
5/4	DEN	DEN -5 MIN +5	208	MIN	-	-	-
4/29	DEN [ 108 ]	DEN -7.5 LAL +7.5	217	LAL [ 106 ]	+2	-5.5	-3
4/27	LAL [ 119 ]	DEN -3.5 LAL +3.5	220.5	DEN [ 108 ]	-11	-14.5	+6.5
4/25	LAL [ 105 ]	DEN +1 LAL -1	217.5	DEN [ 112 ]	+7	+8	-0.5
4/22	DEN [ 101 ]	DEN -7 LAL +7	223	LAL [ 99 ]	+2	-5	-23
4/20	DEN [ 114 ]	DEN -6.5 LAL +6.5	227	LAL [ 103 ]	+11	+4.5	-10
4/14	MEM [ 111 ]	DEN -14 MEM +14	216.5	DEN [ 126 ]	+15	+1	+20.5
4/12	SAS [ 121 ]	DEN -11.5 SAS +11.5	223.5	DEN [ 120 ]	-1	-12.5	+17.5
4/10	DEN [ 116 ]	DEN -6 MIN +6	212.5	MIN [ 107 ]	+9	+3	+10.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
4/1	DEN	- -	-	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3/12	DEN	- -	-	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/25	MIN	- -	-	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11/1	MIN	DEN +4 MIN -4	218	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/19	DEN	DEN -4.5 MIN +4.5	199	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/16	MIN	DEN +2.5 MIN -2.5	204.5	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/14	DEN	DEN -4.5 MIN +4.5	205.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/12	MIN	DEN +3 MIN -3	204.5	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/10	MIN	DEN +4.5 MIN -4.5	204.5	DEN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/6	DEN	DEN -5.5 MIN +5.5	205.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/4	DEN	DEN -5 MIN +5	208	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

** The first week of the season will include last season's regular games by default.

Efficiency

Timberwolves (82 games)		Nuggets (82 games)
0.62 (5)	Win Percentage	0.68 (3)
52.5 (11)	ATS Win%	47.44 (21)
51.85 (9)	OU%	45 (25)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
116.38 (15)	Offensive Rating	117.56 (9)
110.54 (1)	Defensive Rating	113.18 (8)
95.81 (28)	Pace	96.58 (23)
1.92 (22)	A/TO Ratio	2.26 (3)

Four Factors

Timberwolves (82 games)		Nuggets (82 games)
56 (7)	EFG%	55.46 (14)
52.62 (3)	EFG% Allowed	52.91 (4)
26.79 (4)	FT Rate	23.12 (22)
26.17 (23)	FT Rate Allowed	24.57 (17)
23.34 (21)	OReb%	25.6 (6)
22.82 (7)	OReb% Allowed	24.01 (16)
14.27 (22)	TO Rate	13.18 (10)
14.4 (6)	TO Rate Forced	12.75 (26)

Scoring

Timberwolves (82 games)		Nuggets (82 games)
112.07 (22)	PPG	113.98 (15)
106.45 (1)	PPG Allowed	109.73 (7)
16.52 (12)	Pts off TO	15.45 (24)
16.46 (18)	Pts off TO Allowed	15.87 (14)
13.46 (15)	2nd Chance Pts	13.45 (16)
11.79 (3)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	13.07 (7)
11.98 (29)	Fast Break Pts	15.06 (9)
13.23 (8)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	14.22 (15)

Inside the Arc

Timberwolves (82 games)		Nuggets (82 games)
42.85 (21)	Paint Attempts	45.16 (8)
42.59 (7)	Paint Attempts Allowed	45.74 (26)
57.66 (15)	Paint FG%	57.9 (12)
54.44 (2)	Paint FG% Allowed	55.77 (5)
7.73 (27)	Mid-Range Attempts	12.07 (4)
10.56 (23)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	9.65 (14)
0.38 (25)	Mid-Range FG%	0.45 (8)
0.41 (9)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.4 (5)

Three Point Shooting

Timberwolves (82 games)		Nuggets (82 games)
10.15 (4)	Corner 3 Attempts	7.83 (26)
7.91 (5)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	8.1 (9)
39.42 (12)	Corner 3 FG%	37.54 (23)
38.83 (15)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	36.6 (4)
23.61 (24)	ATB3 Attempts	22.89 (26)
23.39 (2)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	24.4 (7)
38.53 (1)	ATB3 FG%	37.83 (4)
35.3 (9)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	34.98 (7)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Nuggets 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Nuggets	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Timberwolves	2-2-0 (50%)	3-7-0 (30%)	17-8-0 (68%)	9-9-0 (50%)	6-10-0 (37.5%)	6-6-0 (50%)	1-1-1 (50%)
Nuggets	3-0-0 (100%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	9-4-0 (69.2%)	7-7-0 (50%)	19-14-0 (57.6%)	9-10-0 (47.4%)	8-7-1 (53.3%)