Category: Commentary
Decoding NBA Playoff Scoring Trends: The Case for Unders in Games 6 and 7
As NBA playoff series unfold, a fascinating pattern emerges – scoring tends to decrease as the pressure mounts. Teams battle tooth and nail, defenses tighten, and every possession becomes a battleground. In this article, we delve into the statistical evidence behind this phenomenon and explore why unders could be a savvy play in Games 6 and 7 of playoff series.
Let’s dissect the average scoring and field goal percentage data by series game since the 2018-2019 season:
| Series Game | PPG | FG% |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 219.03 | 0.46 |
| 2 | 218.88 | 0.46 |
| 3 | 219.36 | 0.46 |
| 4 | 217.72 | 0.45 |
| 5 | 217.67 | 0.46 |
| 6 | 214.98 | 0.45 |
| 7 | 197.38 | 0.42 |
As the series progresses, we observe a consistent decline in scoring output, accompanied by a slight dip in field goal percentage. These numbers underscore the intensifying defensive battles and heightened pressure that characterize later games in playoff series.
Why Unders in Games 6 and 7? The statistical trends suggest compelling reasons why unders could be a smart bet in Games 6 and 7 of NBA playoff series:
As the series wears on, offensive efficiency tends to decline. Tighter defense, increased fatigue, and heightened pressure contribute to lower shooting percentages and fewer scoring opportunities. This trend often leads to fewer total points scored, making the under an attractive proposition for astute bettors.
Games 6s have historically been a strong under play. They’ve gone 99-71-6 (58.2%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season, per the KillerSports.com SDQL database.
Game 7s are the ultimate pressure cooker in NBA playoffs. With the series on the line, both teams dial up the defensive intensity, resulting in a slugfest characterized by rugged defense and low-scoring affairs. Additionally, the lower FG% in Game 7 indicates that shots are harder to come by, further supporting the case for betting the under. Game 7s have gone 12-4 to the under since the 2018-2019 season, 42-24 (63.6%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season.
By understanding the statistical patterns and factors driving decreased scoring as series progress, bettors can make informed decisions and gain an edge in the volatile world of NBA playoff betting. Whether it’s the grind-it-out nature of Game 6 or the pressure-packed atmosphere of Game 7, betting the under should be a strong consideration (among other factors) for those seeking to maximize their returns in the postseason arena.