Category: Commentary

The dust has settled on the Western Conference Round 1 battles, leaving fans eagerly anticipating the upcoming slobber knocker that is Round 2.

Among the thrilling matchups is the clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, two Northwest Division rivals. Adding spice to the showdown are some juicy narratives: Timberwolves’ President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly was once part of the Nuggets’ brain trust that helped form their current-day roster. The Wolves, seeking redemption after last year’s playoff defeat, are primed for revenge. All eyes are on 22-year-old sensation Anthony Edwards, whose meteoric rise has brought upon a compelling matchup against the reigning NBA champions. Get your popcorn ready and brace yourselves for a showdown of epic proportions.

In the wake of the Timberwolves’ electrifying rise, another young force has emerged in the NBA landscape: the Oklahoma City Thunder. This dynamic squad has captivated fans with their performances and unexpected successes. The Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks enter the matchup riding waves of momentum, making this a highly anticipated showdown between two red-hot contenders.

Similar to the first round, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

• The absence of Jamal Murray has been felt by the Nuggets this season, evident in their 8-15 record against the spread (ATS) in games where he did not play. Keep that in mind if he misses time during the series as he nurses a calf injury.

• The Nuggets/Lakers series set a brisk pace, registering at the highest pace (96.4) in the first round. This uptempo style of play could carry over into the second-round matchup against the Timberwolves, potentially leading to higher-scoring contests as both teams look to push the pace and capitalize on offensive opportunities.
• One area where the Nuggets hold an advantage is in first-half performance. Despite slow starts in the first round against the Lakers, season-long statistics reveal a favorable trend for Denver in the first half, with a 46-41 record against the spread (1H ATS). In contrast, the Timberwolves struggled in the first half during the regular season, posting a 36-48-1 record against the spread (1H ATS). This disparity could be a key factor in shaping the early stages of games in the upcoming series.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Looking ahead to the next round, the Timberwolves face a formidable opponent in the Denver Nuggets. In their four meetings, they split the series 2-2, with the Timberwolves covering in three out of four games.
• The Timberwolves have excelled on the defensive end. Finishing the regular season ranked #1 in Defensive Rating underscores their ability to stifle opponents. However, the market on their totals is lower than actual. In their recent 12-game stretch, the Timberwolves have gone 9-3 record to the over.
• While their defensive achievements have garnered attention, the Timberwolves have also been a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end. Ranking first in Offensive Rating (123.2) and Offensive Rebound Percentage (39.2%) in the first round, they have showcased their ability to score at will and dominate the boards.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• The Thunder, a young and impressive team, have demonstrated their dominance at home by finishing with an outstanding 35-8 SU and 28-15 ATS record.
• In recent weeks, the Thunder have been on a tear, rattling off nine consecutive wins. This impressive streak includes a sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans and a 7-2 ATS record.
• While their last head-to-head matchup with the Mavericks may have fallen short of the total, seven of their previous eight matchups have gone over the total with an average score of 237.3.

Dallas Mavericks

• The Mavericks have also been dominant in recent weeks, going 20-6 straight up and ATS in their previous 26, showcasing their momentum. They are 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in their previous 22 games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together.
• Throughout 2024, the Mavericks have a solid 36-19 record to the under.
• The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 28-15-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability.

As NBA playoff series unfold, a fascinating pattern emerges – scoring tends to decrease as the pressure mounts. Teams battle tooth and nail, defenses tighten, and every possession becomes a battleground. In this article, we delve into the statistical evidence behind this phenomenon and explore why unders could be a savvy play in Games 6 and 7 of playoff series.

Let’s dissect the average scoring and field goal percentage data by series game since the 2018-2019 season:

Series Game	PPG	FG%
1	219.03	0.46
2	218.88	0.46
3	219.36	0.46
4	217.72	0.45
5	217.67	0.46
6	214.98	0.45
7	197.38	0.42

As the series progresses, we observe a consistent decline in scoring output, accompanied by a slight dip in field goal percentage. These numbers underscore the intensifying defensive battles and heightened pressure that characterize later games in playoff series.

Why Unders in Games 6 and 7? The statistical trends suggest compelling reasons why unders could be a smart bet in Games 6 and 7 of NBA playoff series:

As the series wears on, offensive efficiency tends to decline. Tighter defense, increased fatigue, and heightened pressure contribute to lower shooting percentages and fewer scoring opportunities. This trend often leads to fewer total points scored, making the under an attractive proposition for astute bettors.

Games 6s have historically been a strong under play. They’ve gone 99-71-6 (58.2%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season, per the KillerSports.com SDQL database.

Game 7s are the ultimate pressure cooker in NBA playoffs. With the series on the line, both teams dial up the defensive intensity, resulting in a slugfest characterized by rugged defense and low-scoring affairs. Additionally, the lower FG% in Game 7 indicates that shots are harder to come by, further supporting the case for betting the under. Game 7s have gone 12-4 to the under since the 2018-2019 season, 42-24 (63.6%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season.

By understanding the statistical patterns and factors driving decreased scoring as series progress, bettors can make informed decisions and gain an edge in the volatile world of NBA playoff betting. Whether it’s the grind-it-out nature of Game 6 or the pressure-packed atmosphere of Game 7, betting the under should be a strong consideration (among other factors) for those seeking to maximize their returns in the postseason arena.